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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    It'll get further than that but the precip will largely be gone by then. Thus we still get high totals.
  2. jm1220
    Surprised Upton went that high honestly. I thought I was being bullish calling for 18" in Central Park and they outdid me.
  3. jm1220
    First flurries in Huntington.
  4. jm1220
    We probably mix over at some point but it would be as the heavy precip is leaving/gone anyway. It could just be a long period of drizzle.
  5. jm1220
    Yup, we should do very well. Not the jackpot but best event since possibly 3/21/18. I'd say 80-90% chance we at least get into double digits.
  6. jm1220
    That said it's the most amped of the models with it and other models like the NAM have the mid level features a bit to the east. However a fast dry slot is always a threat when the 700 low goes west of you.
  7. jm1220
    It's new (v16) so hard to say how it'll do this close in but the 700 low north of Philly isn't what you want to see near NYC. We want that just off the NJ coast. It's been backing off the huge totals and QPF in this area the last few runs likely because of that- brings the dry slot in faster and also risks more warm air for coastal spots.
  8. jm1220
    This GFS run was a good bit more amped/west than the last one especially with the mid level lows. This run has the 700 low over Bucks County PA which is west enough that verbatim the dry slot can make it east of the city pretty quickly. Of course it's great west of the city but here it's not ideal and would probably mean east of the city stays under a foot.
  9. jm1220
    All you really need to see. This would be insane.
  10. jm1220
    That's not happening and I would ignore it.
  11. jm1220
  12. jm1220
    Revised thoughts: Central Park: 18" JFK: 16" Newark: 20" Middletown, NY: 20" Morristown/Sussex, NJ: 22" Danbury: 20" Bridgeport: 18" White Plains: 21" Asbury Park: 12" Freehold: 18" Montauk: 8" Riverhead: 12" Long Beach: 14" Islip: 16" Me/PSV88/NorthshoreWX: 17" Best chance for 24"+ between I-80 and I-78 in NJ. Maybe north of I-80 also in the good ratios. Mixing does eventually happen for most near the coast but 95% of the precip will have fallen by then other than the twin forks where it really might cut into totals.
  13. jm1220
    Where you see the blues would be where the best lifting is so you'd want to be just NW of it I'd think. But before this there's an insane front end batch of heavy snow anyway which means that the overall difference may be just a few inches or so between NYC and west of town, and by this point on the map the low is starting to occlude which means the snow will become more spotty/banded.
  14. jm1220
    Here's what I mean-it would be best if that 700 low was a bit further east, like offshore NJ. It's really being nitpicky at this point but this is why the heaviest amounts are over N NJ/E PA. Like I said if it happens this way I'll definitely sign on that dotted line.
  15. jm1220
    Yep it was a little better. If the 700 low can track east just a little more it would be ideal for everyone but regardless I'll take the 15" it gives me before any changeover that would likely just be drizzle anyway in the dryslot.
  16. jm1220
    Totals from the Euro. If anything looks a little better than last night.
  17. jm1220
    I could see it maybe for S Nassau and SW Suffolk. For the east end it's a question of the blizzard conditions lasting 3 hours or more due to mixing concerns.
  18. jm1220
    Amped is winning out as expected but hopefully we can get a small shift east before start. NYC and LI will probably be warm enough for rain for a time but it will be when the heavy precip is over anyway, so most end up getting about the same amounts, but the highest would be NW where you also get the better ratios.
  19. jm1220
    Should just make it a longer event. I don't expect much accumulation today or anything but it'll set the stage. Models all have this lasting through Tue in some form.
  20. jm1220
    These typically do.
  21. jm1220
    Hopefully that picks up soon. In my time there there (Jan 2015-Nov 2016) was a F1 that went less than a mile from me, decent hail events (best I saw was a golf ball severe event, luckily for me my car was under a canopy), a 80 mph bow echo and numerous other severe/tornado warnings. Anything I experienced on LI severe wise beneath paled in comparison.
  22. jm1220
    I miss the severe weather in Austin when I lived there. How's that been lately? I missed Juno and Jonas on Long Island which was rough enough for me to move back up.
  23. jm1220
    I would think you're in a decent place N of Providence for a while anyway. And I have to think it will end up a little less amped and more the way Miller B's typically turn out than the Euro has in the end.
  24. jm1220
    From my experience these front-enders don't just totally crap out like this even for you guys. It should cool the column enough at least for a few good hours. For the Cape and places like Plymouth sure I guess.
  25. jm1220
    Right, I can see the layout of what it's showing with the min for the CT River valley etc but the amounts to me are just crazy low. I'd bet good money Northborough MA does better than me in a Miller B. Boston I could see the easterly flow and matured low killing after a time.
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