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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    If the winds stay from a NE direction which is very likely I doubt anyone other than the twin forks maybe see any rain. Coastal NJ will have mostly rain because of NE winds-there that's onshore with warm early Dec waters. As for the sleet, the 700/850 low tracks are key, and there was improvement on the recent NAM/Euro runs.
  2. jm1220
    Actually the GFS doesn’t look much different to me at all. The 0.75” liquid line makes it just a hair further north in CT vs 12z? On both runs Boston is just under 0.5” liquid.
  3. jm1220
    GFS was always going to trend north. Not much doubt this tries to tuck toward southern NJ-then hopefully sharp east turn. Areas of CT and S NY will do quite well with this-never bought these crazy cutoffs just north of me.
  4. jm1220
    I'm not too concerned with it. The Euro/NAM coming southeast was a good thing. And even so the RGEM was pretty nice verbatim for our area. Philly area gets a ton of sleet.
  5. jm1220
    The low coming into NYC would be a disaster.
  6. jm1220
    S NJ is very unlikely to get much snow from this even if the mid levels cool a little more. Surface winds there coming from the Atlantic are a killer in Dec.
  7. jm1220
    The 700 low on this 18z run looks like it tracks just about over NYC and LI, 850 low about 75 miles SE. Good improvement here. I would think this could be enough to keep much mix away.
  8. jm1220
    In the end I think it’s a sharper gradient than that. I agree that south of I-84 should be good, and near that northern edge could actually do quite well because that’s where ratios could be best and there’s usually a final heavy snow band that sets up there. But north of that it’s subsidence city along with the dry air and amounts drop fast. Guess we’ll see what can still happen but today’s trends aren’t great for Albany for example.
  9. jm1220
    The snow average for White Plains from what I know is something like high 30 inches annually while for me it’s a little less but not much, low 30s I think. In recent years this area really benefitted from the late developer Miller B events that Westchester might not have gotten as much from. But in I-95 rain snow line events it’s definitely better being in White Plains. White Plains is also higher in latitude. I’m at the Bronx/upper Manhattan latitude.
  10. jm1220
    FWIW Upton going with snow/sleet mix for now in E Suffolk and 4-8” S Fork, 6-10” N Fork. West of there for now all snow and 8-12” in W Suffolk and west. Additional snow Thu morning which wasn’t added in yet.
  11. jm1220
    Euro has the same resolution as the Nam so it should pick up the same warm layers etc.
  12. jm1220
    I think where you’d really want to pay attention is 750-800 mb. I’ll have to look up where there may be soundings.
  13. jm1220
    Yep- this is a situation IMO where we’re looking at dual pol to see where the sleet line ends up. Hopefully it stays just off the beaches. I’m more interested in those mid level low tracks than anything.
  14. jm1220
    In March 2019 there were definitely differences between my parents’ place in Long Beach and here in S Huntington snow cover wise and amount that fell. I had 10-12” or so across 3 systems and they had maybe a few inches.
  15. jm1220
    I wouldn’t think much higher than 10-1 for ratios especially in areas with high winds that can cut ratios down. The final part of the storm in the CCB band typically has the higher ratios, not the front WAA part.
  16. jm1220
    Yes-I’d say the snow average where I used to live in Long Beach is something like 25” per winter vs where I am now where it’s over 30”. The North Shore particularly elevated areas out to around Stony Brook would be the best region of LI for snow. Marginal situations typically buy us a couple of degrees for wet snow vs rain elsewhere.
  17. jm1220
    I think it’s the confluence asserting itself on these models today and causing the better SE trend. It really means business on this Euro run and we see the cutting off to the north. This will try to hug the coast and then run into a wall.
  18. jm1220
    Looks like a consensus building finally. Euro improved a little from 6z to my eyes.
  19. jm1220
    Thanks. Didn’t see charts with mid level low tracks but overall looks a little warm for a track like that both at the surface and at 850mb. The 850 zero line makes it to about I-195 I’d say. Surface temps also look a little warm. 1-1.5” liquid for NYC and Long Island, less than 1” north of the Tappan Zee I’d guess. Edit disregard the less than 1” liquid amounts north of the Tappan Zee, was looking at the wrong chart. Plenty of liquid up to I-90.
  20. jm1220
    2" in Long Beach on that map and 9" where I live now. My move up here may be paying dividends lol. (Not saying I believe this whatsoever)
  21. jm1220
    Impossible to really say without surface temp charts and the 700/850 low tracks. The surface low tracks pretty close to best case scenario IMO for heavy snow but maybe the 700/850 lows are a lot further NW.
  22. jm1220
    Yep, if the more amped models come south a little today it would be a great sign IMO.
  23. jm1220
    GFS has perhaps 50+ mph gusts for the NJ shore, but unfortunately for snow there the winds are onshore. Inland Monmouth towards I-95 may be worlds different from Asbury Park.
  24. jm1220
    Yep, hate to say it but there will be a crazy cutoff with a system dealing with this much confluence.
  25. jm1220
    March 21, 2018 probably
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