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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    38 in Long Beach still. I miss Huntington. Not much difference in snow that fell on Monday but a pretty big negative difference in snow left from there to here driving down last night.
  2. jm1220
    Consider anything more than a good snowpack builder a bonus. Southern stream systems typically end up wetter/north in the end. Hopefully this follows that pattern. In Long Beach this weekend-decent chance at 6+.
  3. jm1220
    I’m not too concerned about the Ukmet. There might not be too many that get over 6” but should still be a decent snow pack reinforcer.
  4. jm1220
    GFS actually got a little better from 6z. RGEM got much drier, hopefully it just had an off run.
  5. jm1220
    My guess for this would be 5-8” (maybe more like 5-6”) for most with 3-5” far north and west like in Orange and Sussex County. NAM as usual is probably too wet but RGEM hopefully too dry. Should be a nice moderate type event. I saw a reference to 2/7/03 elsewhere and that’s probably a decent analog.
  6. jm1220
    RGEM was wetter.
  7. jm1220
    Oh and how the SREFs set the scene. They should be annihilated in a supernova.
  8. jm1220
    Long Beach had at least 12” but numerous grassy patches here. More left over in Huntington before I drove down today.
  9. jm1220
    RPM, Where I live, not so much as a flake. Too bad so sad, how much more abuse can I take. 15” fell at my place on Monday. Gotta make 8” more happen on Super Bowl Sunday!
  10. jm1220
    The precip panels on Pivotal can be funky sometimes. A few times it showed me as sleet when the soundings were all below freezing. Look at the 700/850 low tracks before any of the panels. I guess I can buy the initial light stuff being rain if it’s light and temp is 36 or something
  11. jm1220
    Last event it gave me 5-6” and a ton of rain on a few of the runs and we know lol.
  12. jm1220
    I’m not losing sleep over it given how over overamped it usually is.
  13. jm1220
    Hopefully this is as amped as it gets and others don't make a big leap NW. 3k NAM was even more amped and brings a dryslot in. This winter you can never rule it out.
  14. jm1220
    NAM is still good for the coast but you definitely don't want it amped anymore without it becoming an inland focused event and a chunk of it being rain or a dryslot from the city east. The mid level lows all trended about 50 miles NW from last run.
  15. jm1220
    Highs well above expectations again and the sun is out. Pretty mild out now with temps in the upper 40s. Lots of melting this afternoon.
  16. jm1220
    I think we’re setting the goal posts. Euro might be the east goal post and RGEM west? It probably ends up closer to the west goal post but I’d think this is fast moving enough and sampled well enough by now for no more major changes.
  17. jm1220
    Euro decently better but still a little east of the other guidance so not as much west of NYC especially.
  18. jm1220
    For OKX and HPN
  19. jm1220
    If this is right, short lived but very heavy rates and lift squarely in the -12 to -18C part pf the column. For LGA:
  20. jm1220
    That would be insane on the level of the last storm in terms of rates, probably 2-3”/hr. Of course moving much faster but a very fun 6-8 hours.
  21. jm1220
    Most TV Mets are just lousy. They were way underdone east of the city on the last storm until the morning of and even then we were on the top end of the ranges if not higher. Upton was generally overdone but was better. There are some exceptions like Craig Allen but not many. I’m sure by 5pm those will be upped and we might be under a watch anyway.
  22. jm1220
    In this case the 700 low is taking a great track for coastal areas. I haven’t looked at maps/soundings for where the max lift is but if it’s in the -12 to -18c layer that’s the best for high ratios.
  23. jm1220
    Thanks-I’ve seen it mentioned before but didn’t know much about it.
  24. jm1220
    What’s the Cobb method based on? I don’t see anyone getting 16” from a fast mover like this. Maybe someone gets 10-12” in one of the heavy bands. It would be a general 6-10” type deal otherwise.
  25. jm1220
    GGEM came in a good bit NW also like the RGEM.
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