Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    24,358

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Hopefully this somehow can crush the entire sub forum, even the more suppressed runs do spread snow pretty far north. But a system like this will have a nasty cutoff somewhere-Albany area, I-84, somewhere. Confluence means dry air and sharp cutoff.
  2. jm1220
    We learned the really hard way on 2/6/10 how hard east the turn can be in confluence. At some point that will come, could be when this cuts into NJ and you’ll bonanza when I rain, or it’ll be like the GFS now says. I think that happens somewhere though, unless the confluence weakens. It’s a really potent trough and shortwave which means this will try to cut and may try to head almost due north, but there will be the brick confluence wall somewhere.
  3. jm1220
    The confluence and how it can force this south is the story to me. Still a ways to go. Please cut out the “this run sucks” posts, they’ll be deleted.
  4. jm1220
    The more amped with this the better.
  5. jm1220
    I would be very careful using GFS surface temps but yes this would be quite marginal. I think there is a zone somewhere in S PA, inland NJ that can get 3-5 quick inches.
  6. jm1220
    I can’t think of a storm that ever worked out from here on south where the low cut into NJ. The low I think can only cut to around Cape May then has to make a beeline east to keep it snow even to around NYC. I think this is gonna want to cut, we need the confluence big time. Maybe I’m being a “Debbie” as you guys say but can’t discount something like the 18z GFS or a scenario where the confluence weakens or the PNA gets less cooperative.
  7. jm1220
    I think about 10” altogether from the primary. I didn’t live there until 2005 but I remember from reading reports. I remember when I went to PSU getting shafted constantly with the coastal tracks or inland runners during the Nina years like 07-08, hopefully there’s a way it can really work out there and here as well. They might not even be on the board yet for snow in State College or if they are it’s been very little.
  8. jm1220
    All-see Vendor thread and please place questions and thoughts from private Mets, TV Mets etc there.
  9. jm1220
    Found this and decided to bump it, probably useful for the upcoming Wed/Thu storm. Put questions about DT and other private mets in this thread too.
  10. jm1220
    Yeah... Could work out that way if it evolves correctly but there’s still the risk it tucks too far north.
  11. jm1220
    I would think if the confluence holds on it can force the low east, and the GFS with poor resolution might not catch it as well as models like the Euro.
  12. jm1220
    If this tucks up all the way past Atlantic City we can absolutely be mixing NYC and east. Hopefully the EPS is a little overdone.
  13. jm1220
    Hopefully the op run is closer to right but I think it’s onto something with this trying to tuck in.
  14. jm1220
    I don’t buy anyone getting 6” from it, to me maybe it’s a lucky 3-5” where banding can set up.
  15. jm1220
    At least where I live now, if I’m suffering you’re all suffering with me.
  16. jm1220
    Can this guy be banned? Im still scarred from that one living in Long Beach at the time.
  17. jm1220
    About 20” where I am from that (Juno). I was living in TX at the time and missed it.
  18. jm1220
    To me it's a subdued and quicker Jan 1996/Feb 1983 setup. Strong confluence out ahead of a powerful trough and shortwave. The PNA ridge isn't what those were and this is a quicker pattern so I wouldn't expect those same amounts but for who this does hit it'll be a crusher.
  19. jm1220
    Yes, keep those right there please. Like I said, I see this trying to hug up to near Cape May and then confluence shunts it out. It's quite a vigorous S/W spawning this beast.
  20. jm1220
    This storm never gets brought up in any forum here ever again, kay? (3.5" here. very fast over to rain when 12" was predicted). I was in PA a few days later and saw winter heaven, so I'm fully aware how much that storm sucked.
  21. jm1220
    15-20" of snow in 12 hours pretty much? Uh, yes.
  22. jm1220
    Oh absolutely. That’s a monster on the GFS. So pumped for something like that.
  23. jm1220
    Yes but we REALLY need that confluence. It weakens just a little and it becomes an I-90 storm like we’ve seen so many of. So far so good though
  24. jm1220
    If we’re talking Monday that confluence isn’t in place yet and I don’t see much to stop it from being more of an inland event. Temps are also marginal so this would be a quick few inch or so hit of snow where it’s cold enough. But yes hopefully it can help suppress the flow enough for Wednesday.
  25. jm1220
    Yeah... this is going to try to hug the coast and tuck as much as it can. We need that confluence to be in place to force it east.
×
×
  • Create New...