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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Will it be dark enough to actually see Jupiter/Saturn at conjunction here? I notice them getting closer every evening but also sunset around the same time.
  2. jm1220
    The track, mid levels and surface would be perfect for a complete crusher DC and north with a slightly colder airmass. Sucks so much that Pacific air did away with this threat south of Boston and along the CT/RI coast and here. NAM had a brief 1-2 hour window around noon where some snow could mix in IMBY in the meat of the CCB over Long Island, maybe that can happen at least. Would be 2-3"/hr in a better airmass with 12" before in this overrunning type precip happening now.
  3. jm1220
    I'll always take a Nino for our area any winter over this crap Nina, endless gushing Pacific air repeating pattern we seem to be stuck in. Hopefully some kind of tropical reshuffle can happen one of these days to make that happen. Seems that even when storms suppress during stronger Ninos that one or more eventually get us. 09-10 was a moderate Nino that turned out well here in the end despite some heartbreaks. 97-98 was overwhelmingly warm for anyone, 82-83 had the monster Feb event and 15-16 had Jonas. When I lived in TX at the time it was also a very stormy regime overall with multiple tornadoes close to me (what winter lacked, severe and incredible rain made up for-heaviest rain I've ever seen and I was here on LI for some good ones) which I'm sure that Nino had something to do with.
  4. jm1220
    My relatives and I swapped pictures of my slightly rustling tall palm tree outside my apartment on a cloudless 80 degree afternoon with the raging blizzard back home. Torment for sure. I really think that was all-time in my life here, seems like better than even Jan 1996 which was my personal best as a 9-year old at the time.
  5. jm1220
    Maybe I can put in for a transfer up there one of these days. but kinda seriously.
  6. jm1220
    My company has an office location in Northborough, wish I could be there for this. Nice area right on Rt 20 and I-495, I stayed at the Embassy Suites Marlborough a few times (pre-Covid).
  7. jm1220
    NAM does have a brief window around noon where there could be wet snow in western/central Suffolk under the CCB banding but it would be very marginal. Fingers crossed I guess.
  8. jm1220
    Same, maybe in the hilly areas where we are can have a brief burst of snow before it heads out. Infuriating almost that it can’t be a few degrees colder for it, that would be 2-3” an hour type snow. The storm should really start bombing out by then.
  9. jm1220
    I remember it being quite bandy down here from the second part of the storm. The first overrunning part on 12/5 was supposed to be rain/snow here but was all snow with the R/S line stuck near Philly, so we had a 6-7” head start going into the coastal low part 2. Some areas outside the bands ended up with 10-12” here others with 20”+ in the bands. 12/26/10 was another example of this which I know is a curse/fighting words in this sub forum.
  10. jm1220
    Both were very nice events down here too. Dec 2003 ended up well over a foot for much of Long Island (about 12” NYC iirc), and Nemo was up to 30” in the death band that came down from CT (also about 12” in NYC). We would be absolutely wrecked down here from this storm with a 5-8 degree cooler airmass, perfect track and we should get enhanced precip but unfortunately cold rain.
  11. jm1220
    Probably COVID fatigue. Weather wise not much has changed down there. The hypocrisy of elected leaders like Gavin Newsom doesn’t help either. LA should hopefully go down fairly soon due to the new restrictions.
  12. jm1220
    I did. Jan 2016 must have been at least 25” from photos I saw from my home town (Long Beach). I lived in Austin TX at the time and missed it. If I had any idea it would be like that I would’ve flown home but it was looking for a while like we would be edged with a moderate event while Philly to DC got walloped. It came 50-75 miles north in the very end.
  13. jm1220
    Yep, not good. We can really take off quickly if it catches fire in the NYC metro again.
  14. jm1220
    When the air we have is coming from the garbage Pacific and it’s still early Dec...
  15. jm1220
    If you live in Boston I think you end up fine in the end, not as good as inland MA obviously but a few good hours as the storm leaves and you get 5-6”, which can happen easy if there’s a good CCB band. Could be worse, there’s zero hope where I live. Nothing but growing puddles and cold wind.
  16. jm1220
    PA over 12000 cases today.
  17. jm1220
    I thought it was pretty slam-dunk for at least a big time event for NYC with the Euro being so stout. That definitely busted and it started a trend of the Euro being a little too wound up with these storms. It was also a little afterglow for how well it did with Sandy while other models had it going into RI.
  18. jm1220
    The crazy CCB band pivoting through can drop that in 2 hours. Looks like BOS at least sees that at this point on these runs today. Anyway, enjoy whatever happens. Our fate’s definitely sealed for a cold nasty rain event here. If only this was 5-8 degrees colder.
  19. jm1220
    Seems pretty straightforward-cold rainstorm here but colder air and better development by then switches interior New England to snow. CCB develops and pivots east to slam Boston before departing. Guess it’ll be cool to watch and see the New England forum explode but I’m beyond over the lousy windy rainstorms. Maybe we can pull out a miracle with the system behind it which could be a nice event with a little more spacing. Crazy how it’s happening with them in the mid 50s this afternoon.
  20. jm1220
    As you said it would be a crippling blizzard area wide with a moderately colder airmass. And maybe if this was a month later it could find its way there but just too much Pacific garbage to overcome.
  21. jm1220
    From Queens/Nassau east I wouldn’t classify that as a miss. Nassau had 12” at the Queens border to 18” at the Suffolk border and 20+ east of Rt 112 just about. Long Beach had 15”. Of course I was living in TX at the time and missed this as well as the monster Jan 2016 storm.
  22. jm1220
    They’ve always been way more favored for snow than our area. Been pointed out many times how they can benefit from marginal setups and late-developers like this one seems to be. The only real setup where we’re favored are mod-strong suppressed El Niño’s like 15-16.
  23. jm1220
    The only way we get any snow is if the CCB really blossoms over our area and can bring some cold air down for a time. If it develops too late (which is likely) it’ll be a cold rain that we watch develop into a big snow event as it does get together for New England including possibly Boston.
  24. jm1220
    And yes if the airmass was a little colder this would be 12-18" for the whole forum. That's a classic track on the GFS (for the Sat storm).
  25. jm1220
    If you wanted some miraculous way for snow to make it to the coast, the GFS is how you'd do it. It's likely too warm at the surface like always. Wouldn't be significant but could be a quick 2-3" in the CCB it develops.
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