jm1220

Any info on the surge impacts?

I think we have quite a ways to go before even a cold airmass and good storm track means mix or rain still for most.

Could be a very nice rain event if we get the slug of moisture left from Delta along with focusing from a frontal boundary nearby. NAM has been pretty insistent on up to 4" of rain near that boundary over a fairly prolonged period. Hopefully it can extend N into New England where there's a severe drought.

The models last night were also showing a pretty hostile environment for it to move into-lots of dry air, increasing shear and cooler water. There was a Brownsville sounding another poster showed that already had increasing shear heading into the storm last night. Might end up a cat 1 by landfall. That’s NOT to say it won’t be very impactful still.

I’m seeing 12-13 pop up as an analog in some places and it would be fine for me. Where I am now probably had close to 2 feet from the 2/8-9 event.

Radar from what I see is going half-acane which means dry air is intruding into the core. It’s probably a cat 2 now.

100-105mph at landfall would be my guess.

Laura and Michael both had 29-30°C SSTs right up to the shoreline. Michael's VWS decreased the closer it got to he coast. Laura's increased too late, essentially just after landfall, and wasn't able to disrupt its core. Delta's VWS should be infringing at least 6-9 hours prior to landfall. Some modeling even slows down Delta's forward motion near landfall which could allow shear and cooler SSTs to disrupt the core even further. That being said, Delta's circulation is going to be large and the surge impact will already have been attained regardless if it's falling apart at landfall. Yep, again lucky that surge should mostly hit low populated areas (of course some will still be affected for sure, hope they’re out).

They broke the pattern that’s typical for northern Gulf hurricanes.

Models show quite a bit of dry air entrainment and some shear in addition to the cooler waters as it comes in, so it likely peaks overnight and then starts dealing with these factors. The dry air will erode the south side pretty fast and lead to the half-a-cane. We’ll see though if this can break the pattern of many northern Gulf landfalls that go half-a-cane like Laura and Michael. And yes very fortunate there isn’t a city East of Cameron for quite a ways on the shore, just a huge preserve with some small towns (which will get hit hard again unfortunately). For sure New Orleans/Houston have dodged bullets.

My power went off for a time overnight. We probably gusted to 40-45mph or so here. No significant tree damage from what I could see, some smaller branches down. Would have much rather gotten the rain. Story of the summer and fall so far- heavy rain axis keeps backing west and once again NJ/lower Hudson Valley get soaked and quickly lowering amounts E of the Hudson, other than the outlier event just after Labor Day in southern Nassau. Fay, Isaias, this one etc.

Color me stunned-STUNNED-that NJ and the lower Hudson Valley got the best of this rain event once again and places on eastern LI that needed it were shafted. Winds did gust to 40mph or so here but we may have ended with half inch of rain or so which was below expected.

Hard to expect more than 2-3” anywhere since it’ll be narrow bands where it could be more than that, but the front is fairly slow moving and some very moist air is being drawn in. Regardless it’s welcome especially further out in Suffolk where Fay/Isaias didn’t bring much rain.

No. Just no. Moon looks orange/reddish tonight, wildfires smoke?

If it’s another 2010-11 type winter it would be awesome for me. In Long Beach at the time we had plenty of snow like elsewhere on the island but marginal events and changeovers to rain knocked the snowpack down on the south shore but it stayed solid up here where I am now. Huge snow cover difference by Feb.

It’s really not. It’s maybe slightly below average. We’ve become used to warm September’s and don’t appreciate when it’s where it should be.

Awesome satellite image of Teddy out there heading for Nova Scotia. Definitely expanding big time and becoming extra tropical but still 100mph storm. Cool to look at but glad it’s not headed this way.

Yep, getting that fall/crisp feeling outside.

Radar looks moderate here but it's a downpour.

Luckily the really heavy rain stopped at around Sunrise Highway. Would have been much worse had most of the Island received the 5-6".

Schools closed for the whole day now in Long Beach apparently

Looks like it'll be hard to say where future heavy rain pops up based on where boundaries end up, but looks more likely from I-95 and SE. Hopefully it's not areas already pounded this morning.

4.5” in Island Park and 3.53” in the west end of Long Beach. Quite a soaker

Here we have about 1.2”, FRG is up to 2.49”. ISP 2.53”.