jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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It’s not weak aloft, it’s quite vigorous and gives the confluence a fight.
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Thanks! The storm you're referring to is probably 3/14/17.
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I'd be quite surprised at this point if we made it to a foot. 6-9" on the table still, if I had to guess we make it to the low end of that as a combo of snow and other junk. But a big front end burst can add up quick. Long Beach and the rest of the south shore might be more like 3-5".
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I lived there from 2004-09 and had a bunch of moderate events, nothing I would really call major. The largest single event was the Valentines Day 2007 snow/sleet event with I think 11". Consistently below average snow, one year 08-09 maybe got above 40". PLENTY of events that split PA down the middle and skipped us over, storms that formed too late or cutters that were sleet events. This looks like the kind of storm that can really dump on them-a track over the Chesapeake Bay into S NJ is essentially textbook for that area. The result is a sloppy mess for my backyard but I'll be thrilled if somehow UNV can pull it off to get above 20". Yes it's really been since 1994 that it's happened. The area is known for nickle/dime events that can add up but often to below season average. Further east/north often get in on the big nor'easters. 3/14/17 if I recall was a very nice event in State College but not like Binghamton/Scranton area. I drove through much of PA in the wake of that and definitely remember a huge max in NE PA that petered out a little to the west.
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That said hopefully the Euro stopped the bleeding and the other amped models can tick back SE.
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It’s the mid level low tracks that matter. If those go west of you, almost definite that you will mix and/or dryslot. Surface highs don’t stop that from happening. The high matters for the surface cold.
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Don't have the exact number for each city but pretty sure Jan 1996 blizzard was 12"+ for both too.
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It's still possible a lot of us get 4-8" if the initial snow thump really delivers. Guess we'll find out tomorrow.
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We can and have but this isn't the storm for it and not an analog for those. If the confluence was to hold better it could, looks now like it will be retreating and the low will be able to hug too far north.
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Lots of moderate type events when I lived in State College 2004-2009, nothing more than 10-11". Takes a setup just like this to really crush that area, track from Chesapeake Bay to NJ.
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Not sure how active @Wmsptwx has been lately but if I was him I'd be getting pumped. Should be a crusher for the I-99 corridor/Rt 220 for a change.
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That's about the textbook perfect track for Central PA big snow I learned when I was at PSU. For us.... Regardless I'll be happy that State College should finally get a huge one after so many years from the looks of it. 3/14/17 was good out there but not crushing like up near the Poconos/Catskills.
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Hope you're right. More bullish than me for the NYC area at least. I don't see Riverhead under 2", Islip with 10-14" and Central Park at 6-10".
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Good luck out there-certainly looks based on trends like I-80 corridor and I-81 north of I-80 do very well-essentially an arc from the Catskills to UNV/AOO. Something like a 3/14/17 outcome. If these models are right, could be the first 20"+ event for UNV since 1994? There should be a hellacious band just north of that 700mb low track, deformation and plenty of lift there, along with good ratios.
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Verbatim (laughable of course) the mid level lows seem to track in a way that keeps the mix and dryslot just south of the island. The mix becomes a problem when you start having strong southerly mid level winds.
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The GFS is just laughable. The upgrade can’t come soon enough.
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Ehhh. Reason I say disaster was we were supposed to get 8-12” even in S Nassau where I was living at the time and I think ended with 3” and then driving rain. But the writing was on the wall for that too. I think we’re in a better airmass to start for this one though so hopefully we can get the strong front end that drops a quick half foot.
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And 6-9” of snow/sleet can be quite impactful. I remember being in LI City after the 3/14/17 sleet fest in NYC and seeing the huge piles. Central Park I think ended with 7.5” of junk. I can see something like that happening here.
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GFS trend was unmistakeable here let’s be honest. Not totally done with this yet and it may tick back SE a little in the end, but my best case scenario here is probably 6-9” of combined snow and junk at this point. And that’s for the North Shore and NYC not south shore and out east. Those places probably more like 3-6”. I still think inland parts of the forum get crushed, however the evolution of this and snow amount distribution may turn out more like the 3/14/17 disaster.
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I thought the trends weren’t great for Albany yesterday when the confluence looked better and the trough not so amped. That looks to be changing so their chances go up big time. That area from Albany to State College would get annihilated if the Nam/Rgem are right.
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The confluence seems to be departing as the low is coming in. It’s also a very strong mid level trough that tries to amplify. We need the confluence to stay strong to force the turn east. Been that case for days.
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It also has a tendency to go over amped once in a while but maybe since we’re closer in (36hrs) that starts to not be an issue.
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The Euro is also trending more amped aloft it seemed, but hasn’t reflected to the surface yet? Anyway let’s hope.
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We're really mostly concerned with the mid level lows not the surface low. If there's a strong 700mb low tracking through NE PA and the Hudson Valley, it won't matter much where the surface low is. It's a quick thump to a dryslot because dry/warm mid level air will be driven in from the south.
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I'm not convinced it's amped like this NAM run and it's known to overdo things every once in a while but the trends down here aren't great. Hopefully the RGEM/Euro hold to their track or tick a little SE and the GFS holds. A 6" or so snow/sleetpack a week from now that froze into cement might not be the worst thing. The NAM verbatim though means 3-5" of garbage for most unless you're north of the Tappan Zee.