Jump to content

jm1220

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    24,719

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    If the NAM is right the sleet may get up to around I-78 before hitting a wall there for a while in the heavy rates, and maybe hug the extreme south shore of LI. We'll see how it plays.
  2. jm1220
    I'm thinking 6-9" for us, staying a little conservative. Maybe too much South Shore left in me. We'll need the heavy snow rates initially to hold off the warm air aloft. It can definitely happen but I think Upton's a little too high and the Euro too cold. Other areas: NJ shore less than 1" most places-NE winds off warm water are a killer. South Shore: 3-6", maybe 2-3" twin forks, also I-95 south of I-78 such as Trenton. Sleet comes in earlier here obviously and you deal with the ocean influence too so possibly some rain especially out east. Minor additional accum from CCB remnants. North Shore out to Wading River area and most of NYC: 6-9", more of the initial thump is snow, changes to sleet at the end of it. Freezes into cement after storm leaves and CCB remnant drops maybe 1-3" additional. Also 6-9" for I-78 corridor to PA border, 25 miles or more NW of I-95 Coastal CT, Westchester/Rockland, NJ I-80 and north 9-14", mostly snow with a little sleet possible at the closest the storm comes. Dryslot keeps amounts lower than further north. Orange, Putnam south of I-84, more than 25 miles away from CT coast, Sussex County NJ 14-18", all snow. Also dryslot may reach this area somewhat. Catskills, Poconos, I-84 corridor and north: 18-24" from deformation snow band and high ratios.
  3. jm1220
    The sleet gets held off for a while due to huge lift and heavy rates. Warm air comes in as the front end slows. 3k Nam has up to an inch liquid fallen already before 6z at Farmingdale. We’ll need it down here to overcome the southerly flow aloft.
  4. jm1220
    That being said it's a step back on the NAM-more amped with the 700 low track for sure. Tracks from around Allentown through CT. Hopefully it's wrong. I'd think warm air aloft would come in stronger and risk a good chunk of the front end being sleet (for near the city and LI). Just checked sounding for around Farmingdale-very marginal for most of the front end. Sleet gets into much of NJ at some point and even the Allentown area. The model thinks the precip rate can overcome the warming aloft but just barely. It's a little too cold and much of the front end can be sleet.
  5. jm1220
    It must think the lift/precip rate can overcome it for a time? I can see it happen if it really comes in like a wall.
  6. jm1220
    I think it’s really how long we can hold off the warming aloft in the heavy snow push. If that surges through the NYC area early obviously totals will be low but if it can be held off maybe we can make it to 10”.
  7. jm1220
    Might mean no rain but it doesn’t say much if anything about sleet. That’s determined by mid level temps and conditions not surface.
  8. jm1220
    There's all types of nor'easters that can produce heavy snow or rain in this area. The only real definition of it is it produces strong northeast winds lol. The classic snowmaking ones here track off the coast and have the strong cold high in place. There are others that hug the coast or have a warm airmass in place.
  9. jm1220
    The latest NAM soundings didn't look horrible to me. I checked near JFK at 3z tonight and looks like all layers are solidly below freezing albeit not the best ratios since the best lift is below where dendrites grow (-12 to -18C). And it's showing about 0.8" liquid there by then and snow is coming down like crazy with the dryslot coming north through NJ up to about Trenton then. By 6z the dryslot is in with spotty precip and we have the warm layer at 750mb again from the city east, but according to this run most of the heavy steady precip before then will be snow. The precip on the back end starts as sleet for the same area but transitions back to snow-however like always who knows how much of that is real. The mid level low tracks still aren't great. 700 low looks to go a little north of the city and 850 low a little south. That will mean warm mid level air definitely makes a surge into the area. Just have to hope it coincides with the spotty precip/dryslot.
  10. jm1220
    For now yes and it will stay that way for the city and inland. Question is really near the coast where it won’t take much easterly flow to spike up the temps. That’s why eastern NJ gets all rain.
  11. jm1220
    I saw the Wxbell maps in the New England forum, looks like it essentially held from the last run? I have no idea if these count sleet as snow and any other info about it though. Still seems by far the snowiest model here if sleet isn’t counted. Having a hard time buying that we essentially have no mixing from the city east.
  12. jm1220
    I’m never thrilled about ENE winds off these warm waters in Dec. Wouldn’t surprise me if eastern Suffolk has a period where it’s raining. It would flip back to snow/sleet when winds turn back to NE/NNE but we’ll see what precip is left by then.
  13. jm1220
    Upton staying very aggressive/bullish, I think even more so overnight. Really hope they’re correct. They have me at 13-14” for the event which is essentially what the Euro-most snowy model has and I don’t have any soundings from it. Looks like the trend overnight was slightly to moderately good for more snow but I can also see it being warmer aloft and many of us flipping to sleet near the coast after 4-5”, in which case my 13-14” Upton call will be quite high. Hopefully I get more than the 6-7” I was thinking earlier and it can be more like 10”. If 13-14” I’ll obviously be thrilled.
  14. jm1220
    May be chasing convection to the east, and/or model just has a hard time figuring out where to place the low.
  15. jm1220
    Enjoy everyone!! Looks like I-81 and especially maybe just west are about to get annihilated. CTP has it set up between I-99/Rt 220 and I-81 for possible 20+ but should be 12" for all posters here except maybe way south near Lancaster.
  16. jm1220
    Yup, absolutely wicked. At one point it shows JFK at 32, Fire Island near 50. It practically crawls along the NJ and then LI barrier islands.
  17. jm1220
    We can guess as to what's more accurate but the NAM has a pronounced warm nose at 750mb by 6z Thu that the GFS doesn't have really at all. That's why it isn't showing much or any sleet. Winds keep a northerly enough component for most to keep it snow therefore for everyone except the twin forks maybe. Big time winds too, probably 50+ mph gusts. That would be blizzard conditions. Unfortunately especially with the mid level warming I believe the NAM more.
  18. jm1220
    With the low SW of you yes, winds would be ENE. NAM forms a coastal front that brings Montauk up to the low 40s at 9z Wed. Same time NYC is maybe 26-27. It's had this the last couple of runs. Eastern Suffolk would likely be rain in whatever precip is falling then.
  19. jm1220
    GFS looks similar to me. Again it has this blowup area of heavy precip over LI and NYC that result in the crazy snow amounts. 700 low looks to track ENE from around Reading PA to over NYC/Long Island, a little SE of the NAM's placement.
  20. jm1220
    The one real improvement to me seemed to be a stronger front end hit which would hopefully help delay the warm air and obviously drop more snow precip. Anything on the back end could be real could be a pipe dream, and wouldn't be shocking if a chunk of that is non-snow. My 6-7" call for my immediate area stands for now unless there's more improvement. I can see how I somehow make it to 10" if it's like a 2/13/14 wall of intense snow or if we have the miracle weenie band at the end. Immediate south shore 3-5", Central Park maybe 7-8", White Plains 10-14", northwest of there 14-18" especially around I-84. North of there could be the 18"+ amounts in the deformation/high ratio snow.
  21. jm1220
    Doesn't look that way to me. If anything on LI the 18z run was better. Looks like the southern end of the heavy snow tightened up a bit. And these are just snowmaps-impossible to tell what's legit without soundings.
  22. jm1220
    NAM to me was somewhat better but a few things- -Not sure if this is real or not but looks like part of the reason the surface low went SE is an area of convection that seemed to drag it east starting at 0z tomorrow through Thu AM. On the previous run that convective area was weaker. -The 700 low track didn't change much. Maybe it went south a little? Was hard to really tell but that hopefully improves. There is still warm air at around 750mb that gets into coastal/city areas before 6z, but by 6z the steady heavy precip is shutting off. -A chunk of the snow relies on this back end stuff that may be there or won't be. Seemed like the front end stuff was better which to me would be where much of the snow city and coast would come from. The dryslot would likely still make it into the city. So to me, another stepwise improvement but not a big shift.
  23. jm1220
    It's better up here for sure but it won't a miracle blizzard at my house while Captree's driving rain. The sleet may be held off an hour or so but that's it to my eyes. One "extreme" example I can think of is 2/13/14 but even that gave me 7" in Long Beach at the end, and the north shore maybe 12-13"? The rain line literally sat 5 miles north of me for hours.
  24. jm1220
    IDK, maybe? This doesn't seem like that kind of storm though. I think the early March 2018 storms had big differences but that was mainly due to marginal surface temps not situations where we might have sleet or the dryslot.
  25. jm1220
    I noticed that and LOLed. Upton deserves big props if something like that happens but more likely the difference will be a few inches not 9-10.
×
×
  • Create New...