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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    That'll definitely be a nice event for someone and quite vigorous but it'll again hit the brick wall somewhere. You'll have to see where the upper level flow goes from SW (moist) to westerly (dry confluence) to see where the snow makes it to. It actually goes ESE or SE after it forms near the VA capes. Essentially a big bowling ball you might see in March. Nothing to force it poleward which might be a good thing since it would then turn into a cutter and washout.
  2. jm1220
    Maybe but it would be light. The dry air wins out and dries up the snow shield. Verbatim it hits an absolute brick wall. When you see that WNW-ESE shunt on these type of events in PA through this area you know that brick wall means business.
  3. jm1220
    You think that's bad? Syracuse is at 29" of snow for the season, normally by now they have 67". They're getting maybe 6" of lake effect tonight though but they're in a deep hole. Binghamton an hour drive or so south of them is at 60" because of the crazy snow band from the 12/17 storm.
  4. jm1220
    NAM with a big slug of precip that comes in and then gets eaten by dry air and shunted out like other models. It's just more robust with that front end so it's a sharp cutoff between a few inches and nothing. Dry air really tries to push down as the low is approaching. Dewpoints in CT/Hudson Valley are in the low single digits when the snow is coming through PA.
  5. jm1220
    Tons of dry air as it encounters confluence and the wave itself dampens out under the block. Essentially gets squeezed to nothing.
  6. jm1220
    It’ll be the squeeze between the block north of us and the SE ridge and hoping whatever wave comes in doesn’t get shredded. The -PNA will result in a pumped SE ridge so too suppressed isn’t that big a concern to me. Shredded to nothing or rain are the bigger concerns.
  7. jm1220
    Probably a slow decline for now since the holidays are over but any lag post Monday holiday might make the rest of the week worse. Deaths are a lagging indicator unfortunately so probably a couple weeks before this starts to really drop. Hopefully new cases and hospitalizations remain on an improving trend and vaccinations can finally start making a real difference.
  8. jm1220
    The SE ridge is constantly under modeled. The block will be in place but it will try to gain latitude as much as it can. If the S/W is strong enough I’d be worried about rain more than a miss.
  9. jm1220
    Looks like it’s wrapping up here. Nice coating even on the street. Very picturesque with the wet snow sticking on trees and finally wintery looking scene again.
  10. jm1220
    Borderline moderate snow here, surfaces coated good.
  11. jm1220
    Flurries in Huntington.
  12. jm1220
    Finally some heavy precip even if it’s rain. There could be a nice stripe of heavy rain that trains for a bit over central Suffolk County into CT where there could be 2-3”.
  13. jm1220
    The way the US has responded to this pandemic wouldn't be credible for some satire sit-com like Veep. It's been an avalanche of fail from day one. What HASN'T been totally screwed? Just crossed 400K deaths on Worldometers as we have the worst per capita death toll in the Western Hemisphere, and among major countries globally beaten by only the UK and Italy. Just so much winning1!!q11!111!! And it's just like the flu1!1!!!!11
  14. jm1220
    Over 4000 deaths again today. CA really driving the numbers but NY increasing again too. The outbreak’s definitely worsening again here. The US is routinely making up over 25% of world daily deaths again.
  15. jm1220
    Not a huge deal11!1!!! Only about 1800 or so of those maybe are under age 80 and would be dead soon anyway.
  16. jm1220
    50% or more of COVID deaths (in this case over 180000 of 360000) have been over age 80, yet barely anyone under age 80 has died? 100000, 150000 etc count as “barely”? Do you have even a basic knowledge of math/percentages? And what a f-ing callous thing to say regardless. We also have treatments and care that we did not have in 1919. So yeah I would certainly hope we could keep death numbers lower, but we by far have the highest death toll on Earth. So it also indicates our response being a total failure.
  17. jm1220
    It’s pointless to discuss specifics 180 hours out.
  18. jm1220
    No. (LI and NYC anyway). I couldn’t care less about white rain.
  19. jm1220
    You’re in the wrong forum. That should be infuriating for both you and me. Disgusting, insert horrible adjective. It’s how I see that map anyway.
  20. jm1220
    Essentially how it’s been for the last 15 years.
  21. jm1220
    Seems like a pretty vigorous upper low coming through so I could see it trying to tuck into the coast. Like others said it’s a done deal for a washout down here regardless so hopefully some closer in NW suburbs can have something decent.
  22. jm1220
    The new strain has likely been here for months.
  23. jm1220
    Not that unusual they receive snow in the mountainous areas there but that’s a pretty sizeable event. When I lived in TX in Dec 2015, there was an 18” snowstorm in Lubbock which isn’t in the Trans Pecos mountains. Austin is getting a cold nasty rain event with mid-40s temps and some snow nearby in the Hill Country.
  24. jm1220
    Terrible. That’s what happened here in April.
  25. jm1220
    The GFS cold bias is more of a suppressed bias. It didn’t see the warm air aloft in the Dec winter storm since it also had the mid level lows tracking too far south. The warm bias is at the surface-due to its poor resolution not seeing surface cold air pooling. I would go with the Nam any day to see the low level cold air and any mid level warmth-it typically resolves those a lot better.
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