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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Not much to stop the Mon event from keeping trending north. We’ll see what happens I guess.
  2. jm1220
    Again confluence is key. Wave 1-have no idea how that turns out this run but it would help suppressing wave 2 a little more. Yup, that's a little further north than ideal.
  3. jm1220
    The blocking will be key, the low will try to tuck as far north as it can.
  4. jm1220
    Man how do we make that be 24 hours out... With the low there though we REALLY need the confluence. If not it's snow to rain unless inland.
  5. jm1220
    Yeah, can't argue there aren't plenty of roller coasters with this upcoming storm(s). Hopefully the evolution can make for a good outcome for as many of us as possible. Plenty of room for a crash/burn as well. Never easy with these. I'd for sure say with any Miller B type outcome typically a further NE redevelopment is favored.
  6. jm1220
    Dec 2009 was a Nina? 09-10 was a Nino. The 12/19/09 storm was a Nino-evolution storm from what I know. Not that I complain about that storm I had about 20" from the 12/19/09 storm.
  7. jm1220
    Too bad no Kuchera snow map here. Keep in mind this includes whatever rain we get tomorrow.
  8. jm1220
    Yup but only tucked in to a point. Beyond Cape May and NYC south/east gets nervous. But as of now we have the huge high and confluent upper air pattern to help keep that from happening-forces the low east.
  9. jm1220
    I'd normally if a low was headed into Cape May but this airmass we can probably afford it. The confluence would likely send it east from there. Disregard snow maps, from this range we're looking at the overall evolution. This isn't a fantasy model porn setup I'd typically piss on, for sure. I don't see a Jan 1996 out of this but still something impressive.
  10. jm1220
    The Mon system isn't nothing either especially in SE CT/RI/Cape Cod. Could be a quick few inches or so if it comes in heavy (my backyard's first chance to get on the board-so far T here this winter). Temps are marginal though so it's another one where the weenie maps will be overdone.
  11. jm1220
    Yep. It's not a Jan 1996 or Feb 1983 verbatim by any means but a strong trough/Shortwave coming in against a reinforced 50-50, blocking setup screams potential. Maybe one concern to me is the PNA ridge not being ideal. You look at those storms, they had a sharp PNA ridge over ID to AZ. Also the blocking doesn't seem too stout and the flow is progressive so not as long lasting a system. But it could be a really nice system for many people IF the evolution stays this way.
  12. jm1220
    The overall evolution is what we should care about at this range. Any snow map is eye candy as the storm is happening (got burned on the last weekend storm myself) much less 120hrs out.
  13. jm1220
    It's ridiculous at this range but it can be too cold aloft for best ratios. Surface temps also don't determine ratios. I remember numerous occasions where I had 10-1 at best sand flakes living at Penn State with temps in the low teens. Dendrites are -12 to -18C, colder than that also hurts ratios. But any snow map at this range especially is ridiculous, at this range you only care about the pattern coming in and overall evolution. Looks good to me which is what I care about.
  14. jm1220
    Yep, definitely looks like a situation where it tries to cut north to Cape May and then we see how strong the confluence is and it gets forced east?
  15. jm1220
    I'm still thinking we want a more amped Mon system. CMC suppresses it from what I saw. The more amped Mon system could flatten the flow behind it a little more and reinforce the confluence and cold air. You can see that the Wed system tries to hug/cut initially but is forced east by that confluence. Hopefully it can end up a little further north for our inland guys but keep the R/S line well offshore. I don't see a total miss here due to how vigorous the trough and wave is coming in-it'll put up a lot of resistance.
  16. jm1220
    Plenty that can go wrong here still. The confluence/high could be weaker meaning less cold air, there could be less of a PNA ridge, the S/W forming this system hasn't been fully sampled yet. To me it's nice to look at and there's real potential for a MECS IMO but hard to really jump in until late Sun or Mon when all ingredients are fully sampled. But we've also had real potential fall apart at the end (2/5/10 for example).
  17. jm1220
    Still have to give it to the end of the weekend before the Mother of God gifs lol
  18. jm1220
    Fine by me. Contrary to popular belief NYC's best storms often head just inside the BM.
  19. jm1220
    With crazy confluence like this ahead of it, how far NW though? I can see some room for that sure but this setup looks pretty classic to me for a pretty big hit at least Philly on NE. And enough of a miller A element to it for perhaps DC too. I know plenty of time for things to go wrong but to me overall a nice evolution for now at least. And I'm thinking this could be one of those heartbreak storms where it goes from 12" to 2" in 50 miles or less because of the incoming dry air.
  20. jm1220
    With confluence like that and a huge arctic high, to me it can only trend north so far. If the high and confluence weaken that's another story. Verbatim I think there would be a very sharp cutoff between big snow and little because of the resulting dry air.
  21. jm1220
    And this is where amped wave 1 can help us out. It reinforces the 50-50 low, which helps form the confluence and drives the cold air in better. And it can be a nice 3-6" gloppy snow appetizer (I don't buy 6"+ the NAM shows) before this main show. I'm definitely interested in this setup-best we've seen in a few winters at least. At least it's not model nonsense-totally feasible how this can work out.
  22. jm1220
    Yowsers, blizzard verbatim on this run. A little fast moving for truly huge amounts but the only people who maybe worry would be SE NJ as the low tries to hug the coast before confluence pushes it east. Classic setup ahead of time makes it a big one here.
  23. jm1220
    Looks like a pretty classic setup to me, wish the PNA could be a little better but nothing's perfect? Huge arctic high dumping cold air in and confluence to the north. That should put a hard stop on any crazy northward push. If anything to me that setup says knife-edge cutoff to heavy snow somewhere vs. flurries and dry air.
  24. jm1220
    Looks to still be playing catchup here.
  25. jm1220
    And hopefully it's real-the relevant system is mostly onshore now out west. Looks like whatever this is will be a quick hitter focused on Mon morning and afternoon. Verbatim a close shave mostly for LI and central NJ for wet snow but definitely a 50-75 mile bump north.
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