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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Even the GFS now has the low getting up to near Cape May, so pretty sure that happens. Our outcome is what happens after that.
  2. jm1220
    It's just about perfect verbatim. Montauk might have issues on that run. I'm thinking it's legit that some of us will be sweating how far north the sleet line gets on the dual pol and it may come close to the south shore. That would be the blend of models right now between the more suppressed GFS and models like the Euro and NAM.
  3. jm1220
    Those 700 and 850 low tracks will really be key to seeing how far north the warm mid level air can make it. I have no idea where those track on the RGEM but if those go near or NW of you and the snow maps show 12"+, the snow maps are likely garbage.
  4. jm1220
    That said if you shift the GFS north 50 miles or so that’s still great for most of us other than maybe Montauk.
  5. jm1220
    I’d really want to see other models come SE before believing the GFS much. I don’t see this having a hard time getting snow into New England.
  6. jm1220
    To an extent but it also hits the confluence brick wall a little earlier and takes this ENE after Delaware.
  7. jm1220
    The GFS upgrade hopefully resolved the SE bias issue somewhat but it being on the south side of consensus is never great in my opinion.
  8. jm1220
    Yes and no. It will try to tuck in and hug the coast until it can’t anymore with the blocking. That’s really key- if it tucks into around Cape May or DE coast and then goes east we’re all fine. If that doesn’t happen until it’s near or past Atlantic City, we start to have problems near the coast.
  9. jm1220
    The confluence will cause the low to have to go east after a certain point, but the low itself will want to cut north as much as it can. Confluence does look good, so to me if I had to guess it would cause the turn east in time for us, but I can see how especially with confluence being a little less it cuts into NJ in which case we would mix from the city east. We also don't want the stronger S/W like others have said, that just means it tries to amplify more. This NAM run looks a little better verbatim than 6z but the 700/850 low tracks aren't ideal. 850 low tracks maybe 30 miles SE of LI and the 700 low tracks over E PA into CT. That would mean warm air aloft can make it north for many of us near the coast for a time and the dryslot comes into play. The 700/850 lows should be going SE of you if you want to avoid issues.
  10. jm1220
    It’ll definitely be cold and I think everyone gets pounded for a while regardless of the track because of the cold to start but if we want to avoid the dryslot and mix issues eventually we want the 700 and 850 lows to go SE of us. The more amped models have those pretty close by which introduce mixing chances. This will only be able to get so far north anyway because of the blocking setup and 50-50 low, eventually it will have to get shunted out.
  11. jm1220
    RGEM is absolute beauty for this area, but 6z NAM and Euro looked more amped. We really don't want that getting out of hand-this needs to start making a beeline east once it gets to around Cape May.
  12. jm1220
    Yes-we want to keep an eye on where the mid level lows track. We definitely want the 700/850 lows to track SE of us.
  13. jm1220
    Yeah, this won't be a big one by any means but having the ground be white from this would be a win. And hopefully it can help out for Wednesday by assisting to make confluence.
  14. jm1220
    Thanks! This should easily be the best event since winter 17-18 anyway. Still kinks to be worked out but this is definitely a favorable setup for something quite significant, like you say 6-12" or maybe even more in some places that get stuck under banding.
  15. jm1220
    I think Cape May is our limit for near the coast-it tucks further and we mix/rain for a time.
  16. jm1220
    If I see a period of wet snow that accumulates at all tomorrow I’ll call that a win. Very marginal setup.
  17. jm1220
    It's going to try for the tuck, question is where it stops. Confluence somewhere shunts it out. Hopefully it happens in time. But yeah, verbatim a monster.
  18. jm1220
    The tuck determines love and hate. It gets north of Cape May I get nervous for NYC and east.
  19. jm1220
    SNE and the inland thread might be bigger fans of this run. Mon system weak, this one tucks north to where? Borderline maybe NYC east for a time.
  20. jm1220
    WAY!!! too long to go before some ridiculous.... what's wrong with you? Seriously.
  21. jm1220
    Noted!
  22. jm1220
    Jeeeeeeeeeee......... zus.
  23. jm1220
    Jeeeeeeee.... zus.
  24. jm1220
    This one makes the turn way further north, for my backyard personally hopefully not north of Cape May.
  25. jm1220
    Definitely not but I see the same sharp northern edge somewhere.
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