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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    The "dual-max" with QPF min in the middle may be a concern. The initial energy/overrunning max out SW of us and then eastern New England gets pummeled with the easterly flow around the low. Still way too far out to bank on anything but it's a look I've been noticing today. Regardless I don't see this getting squashed way south of here. A 12/17-like outcome where we near the shore worry about the dryslot and warm air is significantly more likely IMO (maybe not the most likely, that's vs. too suppressed)
  2. jm1220
    Just goes to show a whole range of options still on the table. The evolution of the upper low and the blocking will determine who gets what.
  3. jm1220
    The Euro seemed to evolve the system more slowly which allowed the system to become more amped and tuck into/hug the coast. It’s certainly a possibility and yes, a low hanging out in Delaware Bay very rarely ends up as a snowy outcome near NYC and the coast. It means a dryslot and warm air coming in. We’re back in the same boat as 12/17 (with this evolution) where we hope the blocking can force the low east as it tries to tuck into and stay on the coast. As we know it was a solid/good event for us near the coast but better inland. Another issue we have to look at is the primary and how quick it transfers to the coastal low. Plenty of time for things to change.
  4. jm1220
    I’m going with 9” here for the season. 8” from the Dec 17 storm and 1” scattered between yesterday’s event, the burst of snow a few days ago and the small event soon after 12/17. Season average is around 30” where I am.
  5. jm1220
    It’s way too soon to say there will or won’t be anything. And there have been plenty of big storms where I lived right near the beach that were all snow, some fairly recently like in 17-18.
  6. jm1220
    I wouldn’t invest too much in one solution or other until this weekend. That’s why I haven’t been posting about this yet. Definitely potential for something big if cold air can linger and enough blocking can remain to keep the track far enough south. I’m not concerned about suppression in this setup and the tendency for the SE ridge to keep trying to pump. This past system yet again lurched north and was best for I-90. The one thing that can do it though is overwhelming blocking but it seems to be retreating.
  7. jm1220
    Yep, essentially a coating here that is melting with temp slightly above freezing. Lousy as was expected. The Euro became too cold and moist which happened other times this season since the precip that fell came through fast and turned to shredded crap. The earlier models that had the activity and cold combining along I-90 were right.
  8. jm1220
    A decent burst here now, my street is slushy in places. Mostly sticking on colder surfaces, about a coating.
  9. jm1220
    With temps around freezing here I’d think freezing drizzle could become a problem.
  10. jm1220
    Light snow here in Huntington Station. Sticking on colder surfaces, temp 32.
  11. jm1220
    On another note this storm dropped 12-15” in SE Nebraska where snow amounts like this are extremely rare. That’s the equivalent of double that amount here in a storm.
  12. jm1220
    Near the city and coast, be happy if what comes adds up to an inch. The colder models backed off somewhat which is what was expected, or precip diminished.
  13. jm1220
    Could be interesting here on the north shore if these colder models have a clue. 18z EC was quite cold and would be 3-5” from here west into NYC but it’s also been too cold with other storms this winter such as 12/17.
  14. jm1220
    Boston has the much higher climo snow amount for a reason-many more ways for them to snow. Doesn’t make it any less frustrating but can’t do anything about it.
  15. jm1220
    Yep-essentially split screwed here with system 1 going north of us and warming most of us up for what falls to be non snow and system 2 suppressed to crap. Good times.
  16. jm1220
    Gotta admit it would be hilarious if a week from now DC has the most snow of any major I-95 city if they get slammed from the possible Thu event and we get screwed from it being too suppressed and Tue is 24 hours of flurries or it’s mainly rain in NYC. In a strong Nina no less.
  17. jm1220
    Also looks like a badly timed reinforcement on the 50-50 low to press the confluence down. Plenty of time for it to change but right now not ideal.
  18. jm1220
    It’s getting the boot straight east if not ESE at some point. Blue wave listed the reasons. Hopefully it can gain a little latitude to off the Delmarva before that happens.
  19. jm1220
    Yeah, I guess that will have some wintry appeal for a while. The maybe half inch of wet snow 2 mornings ago that stuck on everything and was a postcard scene for as long as it lasted will likely end up better than this will.
  20. jm1220
    It really doesn't matter how much further north it is in the midwest. What matters here is the press of the confluence/dry air which will dry the precip up at some point and suppress what's left when it comes east through PA.
  21. jm1220
    Verbatim at the time the 144hr storm is happening there's a lobe of added energy coming down from the 50-50 type low in Canada which reinforces the confluence and shunts it out or even SE. It would be good if that lobe was weaker or timed differently. That's how we got horribly screwed on 2/6/10, worst possible timed added confluence.
  22. jm1220
    That'll definitely be a nice event for someone and quite vigorous but it'll again hit the brick wall somewhere. You'll have to see where the upper level flow goes from SW (moist) to westerly (dry confluence) to see where the snow makes it to. It actually goes ESE or SE after it forms near the VA capes. Essentially a big bowling ball you might see in March. Nothing to force it poleward which might be a good thing since it would then turn into a cutter and washout.
  23. jm1220
    Maybe but it would be light. The dry air wins out and dries up the snow shield. Verbatim it hits an absolute brick wall. When you see that WNW-ESE shunt on these type of events in PA through this area you know that brick wall means business.
  24. jm1220
    You think that's bad? Syracuse is at 29" of snow for the season, normally by now they have 67". They're getting maybe 6" of lake effect tonight though but they're in a deep hole. Binghamton an hour drive or so south of them is at 60" because of the crazy snow band from the 12/17 storm.
  25. jm1220
    NAM with a big slug of precip that comes in and then gets eaten by dry air and shunted out like other models. It's just more robust with that front end so it's a sharp cutoff between a few inches and nothing. Dry air really tries to push down as the low is approaching. Dewpoints in CT/Hudson Valley are in the low single digits when the snow is coming through PA.
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