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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    You can see the mix struggling to move north where the heavy precip rates are and starting to surge north in E PA where the precip is weakening. Hopefully it stays like this.
  2. jm1220
    Solidly moderate snow now, just measured a little over 1".
  3. jm1220
    Sleet does accumulate, it's 3-1 ratio so 0.33" liquid would be 1" sleet. It's just that it pounds into and compresses the snow so the snow depth likely wouldn't increase. On another note I looked at a sounding for 5z on the 20z HRRR about where I am and the entire column looks to be below freezing, but it has me as sleet. Not sure how that can be. For a few hours before it's close but heavy snow rates hold off the warm air just enough.
  4. jm1220
    Decent intensity snow here now, good coating on all surfaces.
  5. jm1220
    The map includes sleet as snow.
  6. jm1220
    Snow comes in like gangbusters and accumulates 1-2”/hr for several hours, then we see where the dryslot and mild level warm air gets. That plus what back end snow there is determines whether we get 6-8” or the 12” officially predicted here. I’m leaning toward the 6-8” for now but a delayed warmup aloft and decent burst of snow to end it could mean it really works out.
  7. jm1220
    When even that NAM run was a crushing snow burst here later tonight I’ll take that as a plus.
  8. jm1220
    Not a surprise. A degree or two at 750-800 mb makes all the difference for many around the city and coastal areas.
  9. jm1220
    That’s essentially right outside DC near Arlington. They were expected to get maybe an inch or two there. We’re expecting (NYC anyway) about as much as far NW corner of VA and places like Hagerstown or Frederick MD.
  10. jm1220
    FWIW the “wall” of heavy snow we need is setting up pretty well down in MD and VA.
  11. jm1220
    They tend to be over amped further out and more accurate closer in.
  12. jm1220
    ? Never even heard of that one, where does it come from?
  13. jm1220
    I’ve been looking at soundings on the Nam, the warm air tries to come in early but the snow rates and lifting keep it away until they go by. That’s really the key.
  14. jm1220
    I wasn’t at home in Long Beach at the time but I was told there was a lot of freezing rain there. Guess the cold air was thicker further north on the island and there was sleet.
  15. jm1220
    Has to be for 3 consecutive hours-blizzard conditions. The worst of the winds may be at the same time there’s a dryslot close by or mixing, and worst of the winds will be on Long Island. If I was them I wouldn’t do so but there could be those conditions for some period of time.
  16. jm1220
    Yes I was living in State College at the time (2007). Was snowing light there all day, then around dusk moderate to heavy. An hour later the flakes became gigantic and minutes later heavy sleet with temps in the low teens. It was brutal outside and infuriating since the snow was really starting to pile up. The storm ended with a few hours of a real CCB there and 10-11” of quicksand like snow/garbage that froze solid. Much of PA was shut down from that storm.
  17. jm1220
    Sleet is annoying at the time but it also helps retain the snow pack for longer. Makes it much denser and freezes it solid. And yes just as slick to drive on etc as snow, just doesn't pile up nearly as fast. Sleet is 3:1 liquid ratio.
  18. jm1220
    Here's the dual-pol radar site which we'll be praying to, bargaining with, pleading to, cursing at, etc tonight sometime around NYC. Bookmark it and the game is that we avoid the yellow sleet line as long as we can. Yellow line-evil. COD NEXRAD: DIX
  19. jm1220
    Off to the races in State College. STATE COLLEGE PA / PENN STATE Webcams & Traffic Cameras (williamrusk.com) Good luck to all!
  20. jm1220
    The high doesn’t mean much for how far the sleet advances. Those are mid level lows which determine that.
  21. jm1220
    We’re not as interested in the surface low track in this case as the mid level lows. Notice the sleet expanded inland into PA? That could be due to more aggressive mid level warming.
  22. jm1220
    If that fronto band on the Nam is real, we’ll have huge snow rates under it, probably 3” per hour. It seems to last 2-3 hours under any location.
  23. jm1220
    The mesoscale models like the Nam should capture the warm air aloft better, although the Euro’s resolution should also allow it to be captured I’d think. But I’ve seen it be too cold before in a couple of storms in 2017-18. This could be different? The NAM has a lousy evolution for the 700mb low which allows warm air to get as far north aloft as it does. I’m not sure what the Euro does with it.
  24. jm1220
    Finally got rid of that crazy coastal precip max thing but has a nice CCB headed east. The 700 and 850 low tracks actually aren't horrible on the GFS. The close surface low tries to flip the south shore to rain for a time (Atlantic City at 6z makes it to the mid 50s almost), still not much mid level warming here (I believe the NAM much more on that).
  25. jm1220
    This would absolutely indicate huge snow rates where this purple fronto band is located. Not sure how long it'll be in one place but it'll be coming down like crazy there. This is 3z tomorrow (10pm tonight)
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