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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Confluence also seems to be leaving as the NAM brings in the storm which allows it to cut even further. Hopefully this is one of those overamped NAM runs. Verbatim that would probably be a few hour dumping of whatever then a dry slot from hell for many of us.
  2. jm1220
    Geez, that dryslot would even shaft a good chunk of CT, RI and MA south of Boston.
  3. jm1220
    Yeah unfortunately though the more amped trough means a lousy setup aloft. Quick dryslot and warmer mid levels I would guess. The fun few hour thump can hopefully still happen here but looks like a good amount of sleet gets pounded in or it really is just a few hours to the dryslot.
  4. jm1220
    Without this confluence this almost certainly would be a cutter and most of us would be all rain. In a Nina this is what happens. Every storm will try to cut due to the SE ridge.
  5. jm1220
    The more amped trough probably does mean a lousy mid level lows setup and more warmth aloft though, so... maybe just a bigger area of sleet where the surface temps stay too cold for rain.
  6. jm1220
    The high looks a little stronger which undoes some of the more amped tendency of the trough. Really want that to be as stout as possible.
  7. jm1220
    In the long run it’s good to have sleet pounded into the snow pack anyway, it freezes into cement and takes forever to melt.
  8. jm1220
    Yep hopefully that’s wrong. The mid level low tracks are concerning.
  9. jm1220
    Unfortunately I don't see much to help your area if you're in Toms River. Even a trend SE would mean lots of onshore wind and warm air coming off the water.
  10. jm1220
    Certainly hope you're right. We definitely could see a tick back SE today hopefully for the reasons you mention. But even the amped models aren't all that bad for the NYC area especially. 6z NAM is about 12" in NYC (which actually is more snow than 0z run had), but the 700mb low goes north which means a huge initial thump to a dryslot. Much of the period that would coincide with mixing would be light precip in the dryslot, and then some snow as the low leaves. 6z RGEM also about a foot in NYC, 6z Euro about the same? The cold dry air should be our savior for at least that heavy initial thump, and the mid levels don't look horrible unless the WAA there is being underdone (which is possible). The big winner though is shaping up to be central PA to perhaps the I-84 corridor where that 700 low track means a heavy high ratio snow band forms and pivots there. Trying to think of the last time State College PA had over 20" in a storm-may have been March 3, 1994.
  11. jm1220
    Weenie deformation area north of the 700mb low. Wish I was back at my PSU stomping grounds now. They’ve waited literally 2 decades almost for a storm like this again lol.
  12. jm1220
    The big high should at least be enough to keep cold air in place long enough to make for a fun few hour thump to start that would mean half a foot or more anyway. By the time it warms up the precip is mostly over on the front end of the storm. And maybe it’s not done trending but for the city and even much of the island 90% of what fell on that Euro run was snow. I’m not too surprised, you have a stronger wave coming in you’ll see an amped NW trend. In a moderate Nina like this we need blocking with any storm since they will try to cut.
  13. jm1220
    And I think fairly safe to say now the GFS is out to lunch like usual and will trend north soon.
  14. jm1220
    Euro wasn’t terrible verbatim. The trend wasn’t good but cold air hangs around for most of the precip near the city. It still drops a foot or so in the city as is, assuming 10-1 ratio. I’ve been saying for days the low would try to hug and cut north, the confluence would have to work to force it east. If the upper air low comes in more vigorous and the confluence can’t compensate this is what happens. But honestly a hellacious front end thump to lighter precip that could be a mix in the dryslot might not be the worst. Won’t be the 20” weenie area north of the 700 low track but it’s not a quick slop to rain event either.
  15. jm1220
    Thanks. That 700mb low and track= big weenie run for NE PA/S NY/CT. Here it comes close but never really changes over, looks again to be more a dryslot issue after a huge initial thump.
  16. jm1220
    Yuck. Hopefully that's wrong. A low tucked just west of ACY=no bueno.
  17. jm1220
    Hasn't it just been upgraded or is that still coming?
  18. jm1220
    Can't see the thermals but not too dissimilar to the RGEM? I guess a huge front end thump and then dryslot/mix this run. Can't say it enough-700 mb low determines if that'll be a problem or not. GFS brings that off S NJ, this and the NAM seem to bring it through N NJ.
  19. jm1220
    Seems like the GFS just weakens the storm overall in the face of the confluence which causes these southern outcomes. NAM/RGEM keep the dynamics going longer and are able to get them further north. We'll see which is right...
  20. jm1220
    They aren't really all that NW. GFS is a somewhat suppressed outlier.
  21. jm1220
    There'll very likely be a weenie deform band just north of the 700 low track. Lots of sustained strong lift there and good ratios.
  22. jm1220
    Looks just about exactly like 18z to me. Looking more likely that this central PA to W CT jackpot band is legit.
  23. jm1220
    Snow and ice storm, December 5-6, 2003 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com) Not to drag this off topic anymore but much of the state of PA had 8-12". Not saying that's an analog or any of these storms, but it's definitely possible to have heavy snow in Central PA, southern NYS and here.
  24. jm1220
    Jan 2016, Presidents Day 2003, 12/5/03 among others? A huge deformation band forms and pivots starting in South Central PA and drives north into W CT. That's the best place per the mid level dynamics and mid level low tracks on the Nam. Because those tracks are more lousy down here we get most of what we have from the initial warm air advection and then the leftover CCB coming east. Also it warms aloft: per soundings we wouldn't lose much to sleet-but would be close.
  25. jm1220
    On the 3k like the 12k much of this is a front end thump. By 6z, it gets above 0C at 800mb on LI and probably NYC very briefly but it's barely precipitating (what's falling would be sleet). Something of a CCB comes through and cools the column back down.
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