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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    0z 3km NAM looks a little stronger with the winds tomorrow afternoon/evening. Worst of it for the Jersey Shore starts around noon, and then for NYC/LI the worst is from 3-7pm. There's an area of what looks to be 50+kt sustained wind at 10m right along the Jersey Shore and then into the south shore of LI. Gusts in that would likely be near hurricane force. Thankfully the strong winds would only really go on for less than 6 hours and the storm's trucking north. Appears that a feeder band pivots through as the strong winds really get going. Narrow area of 3"+ rain mostly in E PA and W NJ, then into the Catskills.
  2. jm1220
    I wonder if this strengthening burst will be enough for hurricane warnings up further on the coast?
  3. jm1220
    Mine flickered but luckily came back on.
  4. jm1220
    I wonder how the models overnight will incorporate the strengthening happening now. It won’t have much time to weaken before it’s here.
  5. jm1220
    Yeah, rain is probably moderate with it here. Edit-never mind, now torrential but wind died down.
  6. jm1220
    Storm just started here. Definitely gusty wind, enough to sway trees.
  7. jm1220
    Wow. Starting to think the more intense impacts up here will be possible given the accelerating speed of it and it not weakening as much as normal over land due to the trough interaction
  8. jm1220
    Jones Inlet is just before 9pm.
  9. jm1220
    It'll be somewhat likely on LI that there are one or two, but even so TS/hurricane related tornadoes are typically weak and short lived. Thankfully it seems like the worst of the storm will be over by high tide tomorrow night.
  10. jm1220
    I’d rather take the 2-4” of rain over the maybe 70mph winds so it can keep drifting East, please.
  11. jm1220
    Long Beach could be a good spot for the worst of the winds on the south shore. Thankfully the surge doesn’t look too big a deal but that would be an area I’d look for any 70-75mph gusts. I don’t think it’s quite enough for a hurricane watch/warning but could be close.
  12. jm1220
    There aren’t going to be 100+mph gusts with this. That’s insane. I’d say maybe 70-75 right on the beaches and 60mph elsewhere East of the center.
  13. jm1220
    If you’re in much of NJ, E PA and the Hudson valley, sure. If you’re East of the city, no way unless this ends up taking much more of a NE turn than expected.
  14. jm1220
    At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”.
  15. jm1220
    Always a risk for some tornadoes East of the track where feeder bands can pivot through. Other than that on the current path I wouldn’t expect much rain East of the city, maybe an inch if lucky. What we get here will come from the few feeder bands which comes down to luck. The heavy rain just like with Fay will be over NJ/Hudson Valley. Maybe some gusts over 60 on the coast which could knock some trees down/power out. Also some coastal flooding likely from the onshore wind/surge which should be fairly minor but the full moon will make it worse.
  16. jm1220
    Essentially a Fay repeat per the models tonight. Tracks up I-95-ish or just east, heavy rain axis over NJ.
  17. jm1220
    Speaking of which, downgraded to TS at 5pm
  18. jm1220
    Ehh garbage. May not still be a hurricane. Good news for FL which has enough on its hands already
  19. jm1220
    Looks pretty garbage-y on satellite. For me I’m looking to see where the heavy rain axis sets up. There’ll be better winds East of the track but I doubt this will be more than a 60mph TS when it gets here. It may be a 75-80 mph hurricane in NC but shear/dry air won’t be going away as a problem for it.
  20. jm1220
    Small differences mean a Matthew grazer track or one that goes inland along I-95 in FL. In a way we should hope for (for a less intense system up here) the 50 mile west track into FL. It being over water for 24 hours longer or more gives more time to strengthen before hitting NC and speeding up here.
  21. jm1220
    Small changes in the ridge-strengthen and it goes further west, and a small 50 mile difference could mean into FL vs no landfall until NC or no landfall at all. Either way hopefully some good rain makes it up here but a hurricane coming into LI is still quite unlikely.
  22. jm1220
    Nothing at all like Sandy. That was only so intense up here because it phased with a powerful mid latitude trough and was forced to by the blocking NE of it. It was essentially a bigger and stronger Perfect Storm 1991 forced inland. This setup is nothing like that.
  23. jm1220
    When storms are recurving NE near our area, they are often choking on dry air, getting sheared quite a bit and affected by cool waters. Water here is warmer than normal but not enough to sustain a near major hurricane. I would say at max it would be a strong TS up here. I’d hope to be on the west side where the rain would be. Also more likely is it tracks NE from Cape Hatteras and is entirely out to sea other than high waves.
  24. jm1220
    No rain here but a heavy shower looks to have gone just south of here in Melville.
  25. jm1220
    Probably should’ve been excessive heat warnings for today.
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