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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    If I see a period of wet snow that accumulates at all tomorrow I’ll call that a win. Very marginal setup.
  2. jm1220
    It's going to try for the tuck, question is where it stops. Confluence somewhere shunts it out. Hopefully it happens in time. But yeah, verbatim a monster.
  3. jm1220
    The tuck determines love and hate. It gets north of Cape May I get nervous for NYC and east.
  4. jm1220
    SNE and the inland thread might be bigger fans of this run. Mon system weak, this one tucks north to where? Borderline maybe NYC east for a time.
  5. jm1220
    WAY!!! too long to go before some ridiculous.... what's wrong with you? Seriously.
  6. jm1220
    Noted!
  7. jm1220
    Jeeeeeeeeeee......... zus.
  8. jm1220
    Jeeeeeeee.... zus.
  9. jm1220
    This one makes the turn way further north, for my backyard personally hopefully not north of Cape May.
  10. jm1220
    Definitely not but I see the same sharp northern edge somewhere.
  11. jm1220
    Hopefully this somehow can crush the entire sub forum, even the more suppressed runs do spread snow pretty far north. But a system like this will have a nasty cutoff somewhere-Albany area, I-84, somewhere. Confluence means dry air and sharp cutoff.
  12. jm1220
    We learned the really hard way on 2/6/10 how hard east the turn can be in confluence. At some point that will come, could be when this cuts into NJ and you’ll bonanza when I rain, or it’ll be like the GFS now says. I think that happens somewhere though, unless the confluence weakens. It’s a really potent trough and shortwave which means this will try to cut and may try to head almost due north, but there will be the brick confluence wall somewhere.
  13. jm1220
    The confluence and how it can force this south is the story to me. Still a ways to go. Please cut out the “this run sucks” posts, they’ll be deleted.
  14. jm1220
    The more amped with this the better.
  15. jm1220
    I would be very careful using GFS surface temps but yes this would be quite marginal. I think there is a zone somewhere in S PA, inland NJ that can get 3-5 quick inches.
  16. jm1220
    I can’t think of a storm that ever worked out from here on south where the low cut into NJ. The low I think can only cut to around Cape May then has to make a beeline east to keep it snow even to around NYC. I think this is gonna want to cut, we need the confluence big time. Maybe I’m being a “Debbie” as you guys say but can’t discount something like the 18z GFS or a scenario where the confluence weakens or the PNA gets less cooperative.
  17. jm1220
    I think about 10” altogether from the primary. I didn’t live there until 2005 but I remember from reading reports. I remember when I went to PSU getting shafted constantly with the coastal tracks or inland runners during the Nina years like 07-08, hopefully there’s a way it can really work out there and here as well. They might not even be on the board yet for snow in State College or if they are it’s been very little.
  18. jm1220
    All-see Vendor thread and please place questions and thoughts from private Mets, TV Mets etc there.
  19. jm1220
    Found this and decided to bump it, probably useful for the upcoming Wed/Thu storm. Put questions about DT and other private mets in this thread too.
  20. jm1220
    Yeah... Could work out that way if it evolves correctly but there’s still the risk it tucks too far north.
  21. jm1220
    I would think if the confluence holds on it can force the low east, and the GFS with poor resolution might not catch it as well as models like the Euro.
  22. jm1220
    If this tucks up all the way past Atlantic City we can absolutely be mixing NYC and east. Hopefully the EPS is a little overdone.
  23. jm1220
    Hopefully the op run is closer to right but I think it’s onto something with this trying to tuck in.
  24. jm1220
    I don’t buy anyone getting 6” from it, to me maybe it’s a lucky 3-5” where banding can set up.
  25. jm1220
    At least where I live now, if I’m suffering you’re all suffering with me.
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