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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Usually the snow begins sooner than expected with these. Probably won't start for most of us until tomorrow overnight.
  2. jm1220
    NAM did very well with the Dec event. Euro and GFS (old version) were too cold.
  3. jm1220
    I'm at about 9" for the season now, if this can get me to over 20" I'd be thrilled.
  4. jm1220
    Twin forks could be higher than I have (4-7") if the front end overproduces but later on it looks pretty crappy there with the east flow/warm air that takes a good while longer to get close to the city.
  5. jm1220
    It's essentially consensus at this point. NAM/GFSv16 are awesome but those amounts aren't happening here. Amped/warm usually wins out in the end. And it's hard to forecast big time amounts when you're relying on a huge burst at the beginning. Ratios won't be ideal and oftentimes the dryslot comes in earlier than expected like 12/17. That could've been a foot here if the front end hung on for longer but it shredded up and warm air took over. Hopefully this will be colder than that one was but I'd say 80-90% chance there's at least some rain east of the city. Hopefully that happens when the dryslot is overhead and little would be falling anyway.
  6. jm1220
    You'd probably get what Middletown would, so 17-18". You look to be in an awesome spot.
  7. jm1220
    My call for now: Central Park: 11" White Plains: 14" Danbury: 15" JFK: 9" Newark: 12" Middletown, NY: 17" Morristown, NJ: 16" Bridgeport: 12" Long Beach: 8" Islip: 9" Montauk: 4" Asbury Park: 4" Me/PSV88/NorthShoreWX: 11"
  8. jm1220
    At this point you're right, the outcome's fine here and the mix happens when the precip lightens up but if we keep this trend we'll start seeing rain eat into the front end burst too. Luckily we have such a cold airmass to start which should at least make for a very nice event for everyone.
  9. jm1220
    Yep, I-81 corridor in PA looking to get demolished.
  10. jm1220
    Yep, this has 0.3" or so as rain east of the city. Very nice outcome anyway but we don't want this getting more amped. Hopefully 0z shifts it back SE a little.
  11. jm1220
    Seems to love that initial front end thump but it seemed more amped to me. Low looked to get close to Cape May. That's enough usually to change the city on east over. But it would be after most of the precip fell already.
  12. jm1220
    I highly doubt we get 25" of snow but its the new GFS version and hopefully onto something.
  13. jm1220
  14. jm1220
    It's been extremely consistent the last 4 runs or so. Hope it and the NAM are onto it.
  15. jm1220
    The RGEM deepens the trough more and strengthens the low early which causes it to be more of a coast hugger for a time and also bring in warm air around from the east. It backed away from this a little this run from 12z but hopefully that continues and the trough can be more progressive.
  16. jm1220
    It was an improvement over 12z, all that really matters to me. I don’t see 35” of snow happening in Baltimore but who knows.
  17. jm1220
    Right, it's one possible outcome. The ugly GGEM/UK for many are another.
  18. jm1220
    This would be 2-4"/hr under this band.
  19. jm1220
    Sign me up ASAP
  20. jm1220
    Absolutely annihilated by that death WAA band. Holy smokes.
  21. jm1220
    NAM is fine for all of us, not noticing much change really other than like was said-a little colder.
  22. jm1220
    The Euro did dig more and has the stalled/tucked kind of solution where warm air can wrap around from the east. So we don't want that continuing especially east of NYC.
  23. jm1220
    This isn't a miller A. It's a miller B transferring storm.
  24. jm1220
    If you follow what the pattern supports people shouldn't be flipping out. I was always more worried about yet another situation here where we worry about mixing/dryslot vs suppressed. Not saying the mixing will really happen but too suppressed is off the table at this point. This'll be a big test for the new GFS, it's been the most bullish by far for NYC. But even these amped models seem to end up delivering a good amount for places away from the twin forks so I'll take it.
  25. jm1220
    The new UKMET looks a lot like the GGEM to me, so it's not on its own.
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