jm1220

Yikes. Good for them but lousy to say the least for getting sustained cold and hopes for snow in the East at least near the coast.

The primary and initial southerly flow look way too strong right now for most of us, and the coastal low gets going too late. It all has to be nudged south for that to change. It can still happen but right now I’d wager on it being mostly rain or a brief mix near the city. These primary lows where we wait forever for it to transfer offshore don’t work out here.

The very positive tilt on that trough is a huge downer on this threat too. Who knows if other models follow suit but I can’t think of many snow producers here on a positive tilted racing East trough like that.

Awesome, suppression!! From the GFS that’s a good sign. (Whether this happens who knows but I’d wager quite a bit it doesn’t)

At this range I’d rather the GFS target SE VA with heavy snow. Nice eye candy but that’s about all it’s worth at this point.

The Nina like Pacific pattern will try to keep building the SE Ridge, so the warmth may be muted but the block will have to be strong to stop it from influencing things too much. It would be a lot better if the Pacific was also helping.

Just for fun, but we can make this a contest as well. I don't recall something similar for seasonal snow in the past here and other subforums have these. So, please guess for the following locations (my guess and this is for the whole season) NYC: 30.2" EWR: 32.1" HPN: 38.5" ISP: 33.6" JFK: 25.8" MMU: 39.0" BLM: 20.3" BDR: 35.7" MGJ (Montgomery, NY) 50.4" Just for me, but you can guess this as well: Long Beach: 24.0", Huntington Station: 35.0"-distance between both about 25 miles. (last winter was subpar in both locations but I probably had close to twice the seasonal snow here vs. Long Beach because of marginal March events. Definitely a colder microclimate up here) My thoughts (admittedly I pay nowhere near the attention to seasonal indicators as others do in their predictions and I'm not qualified in any way to forecast, but I read Isotherm, etc's forecasts) are that hopefully we can buy an additional break or two this winter but generally a similar pattern to last season. We were just very unlucky a few times and would've done better with a less suppressed December pattern and any semblance of coastal storm activity later on. I don't see a blockbuster by any means but hopefully not terrible. Inland areas should continue the recent pattern of doing well vs coastal areas since I can see the WAR pushing the storm track close to/over the coast.

Snow on the ground in SE VA, NC and Nashville?!

Mangled flakes in Melville.

Below freezing at my place last night. Groundwater/small puddles froze up.

Part of last year was just bad luck. In December, storms slammed VA and the DC area with snow and got suppressed. Places to our south actually went above average for snow last winter. DCA almost tied NYC for total snow, last time that happened I can’t think of. Then the pattern flipped and went to straight cutters. The MJO got stuck in phase 4-5 and we couldn’t buy anything. Hopefully at least that can work out better this year.

I won’t believe a modeled snow event this time of year until it’s here. It’s still almost ridiculously early in the season and this setup might trend to sheared garbage or something that blows up too late/out to sea given how deep the trough is. Keep expectations checked.

Not much of a surprise-there isn’t much to stop this from continuing to amplify. We’re really relying on this being a fast system to keep it flatter but if the northern stream digs more or it slows down, that could be an outcome.

It really would have to be about perfect for much impact near the coast, although it’s happened before pretty recently. The track may also become more amplified due to the northern stream involvement which often causes a north trend toward the end. This looks best for elevated areas in Orange/Putnam and interior CT. I’d expect some white rain and be thrilled if it’s anything more near the city and coast.

30 in my neighborhood.

38-39 in my neighborhood. Amazing how a few miles north near the sound is still in the mid 40s on wunderground. I was in Long Beach this evening, clear difference in temp from there to here.

They become eyesores in the winter because they all die. I have no clue how the city doesn’t put them somewhere to survive the winter. What a waste of money.

I wonder how long until cold-hardy palm trees can survive up here?

Serious cold plunging through the Plains. Austin TX got down to 25 last night at the airport (a more rural setting but 20 mins from downtown).

Farmingdale 46 mph.

Some strong gusts here in S Huntington, some have to be pushing 40. HRRR says we should have a shot at 50-55mph when what's left of the line comes through.

Models are pretty unanimous that it falls apart as it moves through NJ. That would limit what strong winds can mix down. There may be some 50mph gusts but not the same as if we had the full squall line coming through.

I remember it being enough to mostly cover grass at one point but never more than that, and when the precip was lighter it melted. My street got slushy at a couple of heavier points.

Most of the precip that fell even in Long Beach was snow but little stuck. We could never get the depth on the grass more than a couple inches and the roads were on and off slushy.

Seems to show as well that N PAC temp anomalies respond to the pattern vs the other way around. The insane PAC Jet pattern needs to calm down though before we can get sustained cold here and hope for a pattern other than regular cutters. Luckily it’s still mid-Fall.