jm1220

Maybe both. The warm water there will support more convection there, which will amplify the MJO and keep it in a lousy phase for us. As someone else said it’s funny how Australia’s heat wave can hurt our winter here.

Like I’ve been saying I’m not really interested in any threats while the Pacific jet, MJO, NAO etc are this horrendous. Maybe a minor event can sneak in there but the 6-8” snow maps from the Euro are almost definitely wrong. In the meantime it’ll continue to be a NNE and upper Midwest winter. Very Nina-like.

Yup thanks. I saw the first one and removed it but I guess there were more.

No snowstorm for St. Augustine any more like it showed a few days ago? Like last year, I won’t be interested in anything until the MJO goes into a favorable phase and the Pacific jet quiets down. Until then we stay with the SE ridge and cutters to cold behind them. NAO blocking won’t be enough to help or it will make things worse by being positive. We’re stuck in the same raging Pacific, lousy MJO and NAO as last winter. Hopefully something can make it change soon.

Very much like last winter so far with the cold behind the rain/ice storms keeping the temps near normal or below for the month. Hopefully that changes-luckily it’s early.

In Long Beach I had 14”. Was an amazing storm that was forecasted to hit eastern MA. The ridge saved the day for us that time. But what feeds us also takes it away such as with the repeated coastal huggers and inland storms since then. 3-14-17 would’ve been widespread 12-18”+ everywhere if the track was 75 miles to the SE.

And that’s that. Sun is already back out. Nice coating on the ground, about what last year’s had.

Very heavy snow now, ground whitened right up.

Nothing here yet but dark clouds rushing in from the west.

I was in TX for the Jan 2016 event. My town had 25” or maybe more. Yup, sickening. That was maybe once in a lifetime where I’m from.

Same at my place-nice glaze on trees/wires and any colder surfaces.

Even in 2017-18 we really lucked out, and the massive WAR helped us cash in on storms like the post-New Years blizzard. But that large ridge also steers storms inland and over the coast. Wouldn't shock me at all to see a return to much better conditions inland and more coastal rainstorms. That's more typical.

Yup, look at soundings not 850mb maps. Very easy for a sneaky 750-800mb warm layer to come in. In these the warm air often comes in first above 850mb.

There's very few good SWFE events anywhere near the coast in this area, but this should be a pretty typical one if not even a warmer than usual one. Quick snow/sleet to rain on the coast, snow/sleet eventually to rain just inland, and icing further inland. The best area for this will be along I-90. I don't see anything to make this other than typical. SWFEs aren't friendly to this area and never will be.

In a colder airmass with more of a high, there would have been more precip due to more overrunning (although it would have fought dry air). A setup like this where a deep upper air low drives southerly flow in would have changed us over, but it would've been 4-6" first rather than what we had, maybe even more-I believe the 2/3/14 event was driven by a deep upper low with strong southerly flow like this and much of NYC/LI had 10" (although in Long Beach I just had a few inches then rain-infuriating). Also as feared we spent most of the storm in the dry slot, and the redevelopment happened in a lousy spot for us.

I saw pics from Long Beach in the early morning and it looked like an inch or so. There were good radar echos in southern Nassau Mon night so I would think some people there had 2-3”.

The pattern and evolution were very obvious. This was never going to be a NYC snowstorm barring a miracle from the developing upper low like Xmas 2002. The initial S flow ruined the mid levels, the coastal low developed very close to us and drove in mild surface air, the initial airmass sucked, and we had to rely on what we could get from the low pulling away. We had a burst of snow from it but nuisance amounts. That too blew up for SNE and especially coastal Mass.

I missed that storm (lived in TX at the time-still a really sore topic with me lol) but the pics from Long Beach and areas from then make me think at least 2 feet fell and maybe close to 30”. I’ve never seen snow that deep there maybe ever.

There are patterns and evolutions that you see and know how they will play out 90-95% of the time. As soon as models stuck on the bowling ball upper low moving south of us, and along with the lousy airmass it was clear that I-90 would get clobbered. I had 12-18” along the worst of it axis, which seems OK but should have been 12-24”. The worst ended up a little north of where I had it (seems like the heaviest amounts were along the NH/MA border) but for days it was clear it wouldn’t be our storm without major changes. The “table scraps” part last night was okay but not one of our pull out a miracle setups like Xmas 2002. It of course worked out in the end for Boston too but they won’t end up with the foot I thought they would. 6-9” looks like the total there. Clearly the short range models yesterday were horrible and way overdid the snow down here at times. I-78 and south clearly had very little but were under warnings.

Central Park officially 1.6”. My backyard a little under 3”, Long Island and NYC generally 1-3”. Was a lousy storm here where we knew we would be on the short end days ago and relying on whatever rotated around the low. But nice start to winter anyway.

It was clear 5 days ago that the storm would evolve in a way that would slam most of SNE (snow holes here and there). Closed off lows like this don’t roll underneath without much of SNE getting buried-this was a classic setup. Boston/coastal MA took its share today as the storm’s leaving and would’ve had 6” more if it was a few degrees colder. The short term models keeping all that offshore this morning were garbage.

No way I would give up on a dynamic system like this tracking south of me. Boston often finds ways to cash in on those. The short range models were complete garbage. There were models giving my area over 10” and others practically none. The radar and common sense were much more useful.

The ground is still warm so it’s probably melting from underneath.

There were good echos over SW Nassau for a while yesterday night. I wonder if Long Beach actually did fairly well.

It was foolish for anyone out there to give up. They’ll probably have 3-5” easy from this part.