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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yep. Pretty potent line just went through there. Radar estimating over 2” around Hicksville/Westbury too.
  2. jm1220
    1.5” already at JFK.
  3. jm1220
    It’s been a drenching in Long Beach so far. Not much wind but definitely tropical type rains.
  4. jm1220
    It’ll weaken pretty fast once it’s north of the Gulf Stream. Models mostly have it making landfall as a 50-60mph TS. There’s no mechanism to keep it going over colder water like Sandy had. This’ll be mostly known for rain except a narrow area east of the center and near water.
  5. jm1220
    Euro still has over 3” of rain for most of us. It’ll be surprising if it’s that compact as the GFS when it gets here.
  6. jm1220
    It’s the PRE that’s been advertised for a few days.
  7. jm1220
    Pouring here in Long Beach.
  8. jm1220
    In Long Beach-darkening skies to the south and looks like squalls headed this way. Not much surf yet.
  9. jm1220
    There’ll be squalls east of the center that will mix down the strongest winds but it’s always fascinating up here how little rain comes east of the center. Isaias last year had maybe a couple of showers for me east of the center but still 75mph gusts.
  10. jm1220
    Fail for the UKMET on this it’s looking like. It liked the far west/NYC landfalls for a while.
  11. jm1220
    The direct impact zone will be pretty small from this. It’s not really transitioning from tropical as it gets here. It’s definitely possible it landfalls in Montauk and there’s not much happening in NYC.
  12. jm1220
    Yep seriously. Bye.
  13. jm1220
    And for the Sandy/1938/Carol etc thoughts, the pre-Sandy ones likely had big helps from the mid-latitude jet accelerating them and adding energy. Donna I can't say but likely the same story. Sandy essentially became the Perfect Storm 1991 literally doubled due to Sandy's own intensity, huge size, the trough phasing in and blocking high which drove it NW. This is nothing like that. Not to say this won't have significant impact somewhere but I think it's mostly rain related and over CT or 50 miles or so W and SW of where it tracks.
  14. jm1220
    Unless it seriously gets going soon I'm not sold on it coming ashore as more than a 50-60mph tropical storm. A compact system like this will fade pretty quick north of the Gulf Stream unless it hauls which models aren't doing. Sure there will be wind and surge impacts east of the track but the small size and diminishing intensity would mean a small area of impacts from those. I'm starting to lean to this more as a rain event. Again watch this explode tomorrow but still.
  15. jm1220
    My thought is over the Twin Forks but close enough. Henri's struggling so it might be fairly irrelevant in the end other than where the heavy rain sets up. There won't be that bad a surge and wind impact if it doesn't start ramping up soon, and also since it'll have to rely on being purely tropical north of the Gulf Stream. It'll have a nasty (damaging but not widely destructive) impact in terms of surge in the funneling bays and winds on the east side but if it kinda stays as is I think it might tick east some more and be generally known as a rain event with power outages where the border hurricane gusts happen. Maybe tomorrow we'll all be humbled with an eye as it pounds into a Cat 2 but I'm not seeing the wow here.
  16. jm1220
    Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side.
  17. jm1220
    And for the record if this does become a RI/SE Mass storm, awesome (not for them obviously). After Sandy I’m done ever rooting on a hurricane again.
  18. jm1220
    This might really nudge east but I wouldn’t base that on the Nam. Very subtle interactions will shift the track.
  19. jm1220
    Fine by me.
  20. jm1220
    This is narrowing down IMO to Moriches to Block Island for landfall. And not a huge area of direct impacts like tropical systems usually are for this area.
  21. jm1220
    Naked swirl warning has a nice ring to it lol.
  22. jm1220
    Yup, that low can still easily nudge it east as much as tug it west.
  23. jm1220
    If it keeps struggling like this it might stay east and hit Block Island like the last HWRF shows. Still lots of uncertainty here. I think these crazy NJ tracks are about done though. Good-I’ll take 5” of rain over 90mph wind gusts and big surge. Let my area be on the west side of these for once.
  24. jm1220
    Irene went about 10 miles west of me on the south shore of LI. Winds were strong enough to knock some larger trees down but nothing “extreme”. I’m not sold on the huge wind potential for this one either. If this blows up to a strong Cat 2 maybe but if it straggles as a minimal hurricane it’ll reach us as a mid grade tropical storm.
  25. jm1220
    Comes down to how much it strengthens IMO. If it stays weak maybe it goes east like the HWRF but if it really blows up, it might get pulled west more. That was a decent jump east on the HWRF though. Most likely to me it comes in east of the William Floyd Pkwy somewhere.
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