jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Had some glaze here which is melting now with light plain rain.
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Wouldn't trust the RGEM on its own yet. If the Euro keeps coming west then maybe. NAM obviously would be a disaster. I do buy the dual-max idea it has with the initial round of snow well inland, a subsidence zone then the coastal low snow. but to me it's ridiculous how bad it has that. It's just a disjointed mess it seems.
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They won't until all the pieces are onshore and well sampled. Still could see some good swings.
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And this kinda happened 4 years ago today. January 4, 2018 Blizzard (weather.gov)
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If the storm had come 100 miles further north and gave us even a few inches of snow, many of us would've been 5 degrees colder at least. Atlantic City was down to 10, Dover DE was 13, BWI was 15.
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This could very easily come storming back west and by this time tomorrow or Thu 0z we’re sweating the rain snow line. Small changes can definitely still happen and make for big changes downstream. The S/W might be sampled as more robust than models have now.
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Yeah, seems like a good amount of lean to the west.
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This is such a chaotic pattern because of the fast flow that it’s hard to jump onto anything more than 72hrs out. It’s still a very vigorous trough and S/W coming in so it wouldn’t take much for it to come back west.
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There’s a lead S/W that’s dampening the ridge off the east coast, which might lessen how much this can amp up. Also it’s a progressive overall pattern with the ridge out west nudging the trough east. But there’s still plenty of time for changes that would affect what we each get.
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Rich get richer this run. Never thought in a Nina like this that DC to ACY would be on the cusp of significant snow on snow.
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I’d have to think there would be a 4-8” swath with a look like that. That would be some heavy snow for a few hours.
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Thankfully in this case we have such a progressive pattern. The next trough is pushing into the NW and nudging the ridge/trough east ahead of it. That might keep our storm offshore although it probably also results in it developing later.
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Low was 17-18 here.
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Something like the 6z GFS would be ideal for most of our area. Something to keep in mind too is that this is something of a late bloomer, so the mid level lows are taking shape as it goes by. The storm will likely be worse QPF-wise anyway over SNE. But it'll still be a decent to good event for whoever can stay all snow.
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NAM might be over amped, it usually has one or two crazy runs, but today and tonight will be interesting to see if it keeps coming west in general. Obviously a track over LI won’t be good for anyone east of NYC.
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Haven’t had a chance to look at the mid level lows yet but yes you definitely want the various mid level lows to track south of you. If they track north of you it means mid level warm air will be a problem along with a dry slot.
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It’s a vigorous S/W and sharpening trough so it definitely could keep going west and end up more of an inland event. If the 850 low goes north of you which WDrag mentioned, that’s almost never good for big snow amounts in your area and indicates there’ll be a good deal of mixing.
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This looks like a decent enough setup and odds are better that the trough can amp better than this last one just did, but given how chaotic things are this winter in the fast pattern we have, it's almost impossible to get excited about a potential over 72hrs out.
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https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=39.58&lon=-74.98&hr=48
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Airport finished with 12.9". Numerous reports in that area down to Cape May of up to 14".
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In other news, down to 23 now. Likely down into the teens soon.
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Too bad we can’t shovel what falls at the 10000 ft or whatever level that radar beam crosses our area. There was no crazy confluence here today but plenty of dry low and mid level air. Soundings were brutal and made it obvious those GFS snow maps were way overdone.
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Amounts near the airport seem to be around 12” so that’s likely what they have. Last measurement was at 1pm when it was still S+.
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Essentially one page per snowflake I saw today.
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Suppression sucks.
