jm1220

Looks to be due to where the back end snow band sets up. Hopefully for MBY it shifts East a little more. Round 1 won’t be a big producer unless you’re way north, so we’re mostly waiting for what the second part does.

Even if the low kinda pivots near Long Island for a time it might not be bad with the crashing temps due to the upper air low and possible CCB. If anything that might hurt eastern New England since it prolongs the onshore flow. As long as the low is east of your longitude it wouldn’t be bad.

If the CCB doesn’t pan out, NYC and coast might walk away with an inch or two or even less. If it’s a bunch of light snow or snow showers behind the low, it’ll struggle to accumulate outside of cold surfaces.

They’ve been locked in for at least a good event for 2-3 days. The upper air evolution is a classic for them. The here and there bumps would eventually work out for them as long as that lasted. I-90 Albany and East (maybe Syracuse and East) should average 12” right to Boston, maybe 18” in favored upslope spots on the easterly flow. Their climo is what it is for a reason. Sucks for down here but whatever we get will be good for beginning of December regardless, and there’s a slight chance of a surprise if the CCB does blow up.

You’re right, with the high to the north, cold surface air could hang on for a while for some ZR/sleet potential for a few hours. The snow potential would be brief though-all models have the mid level warmth coming in fast.

When the CCB sets up it’ll transition to snow pretty fast. On thermals I wouldnt trust it.

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now.

I wouldn’t get too excited yet about relying on a CCB to produce big accums. We won’t know until it happens where it sets up and how heavy it is. It could be a slushy inch or 6 if it really does set up overhead. The axis for where it’s primed to be best between both the initial push and whatever happens after is the same Boston to Catskills area as yesterday. Areas south of that in the Hudson Valley, maybe NW NJ and inland CT should be okay too. Below there it’s really a crap shoot where it depends almost entirely on what rotates around after the upper low cools it down.

I would vomit if Long Island sat in the dryslot for that long. Essentially to a T what happened on 4/1/97. I’d probably burn anything that would display the radar loops too.

Like other models, we live or die near the coast on what rotates behind the upper low and we cool back down. It’s nice verbatim for the northern half of LI and even NYC but it could easily be hours of barely accumulating light snow or snow showers.

That closed low and what rotates around it likely determines how this ends up for most of us. If the south trend and later occluding is real, it could be a nice surprise. They can produce like Xmas 2002 but those are the rare cases.

This is likely one for the Hudson Valley and inland CT and the rest of us wait for whatever rotates around the low on Monday. Might be some light snow showers mostly or something that can accumulate. Maybe there’s an inch or two on the front end but it quickly gets washed away. It’ll be nice to have a brief period of snow on the ground (hopefully) but unless there are major changes at this point this is one that jackpots I-90. Models are keying in on Boston to around Monticello getting the brunt of the front end snow and wrap around from the low with little warming in between.

It's at the point now where models keying in on the Boston to Catskills jackpot swath is at least meaningful. The upper air evolution and closed off 500 low are classic for a SNE clobbering event.

Boston to the Catskills is probably the best place to be for this. Hopefully table scraps rotate down our way after the brief snow to drenching.

Essentially another 4-1-97. I’ll pass on that disaster. If I remember right it was actually supposed to be an okay event around NYC and the end result was practically nothing and an endless dryslot.

If the snow behind the low is banded and comes down moderate, it should accumulate and it’s possible if it’s dynamic enough- it’ll be a closed off upper low. If it’s occasional snow showers or light I doubt it accumulates.

My hopes aren’t for anything more than a quick inch or maybe two on grass, and I live in a cold part of Long Island now. Anyone should know the 12z Euro might be a pipe dream-I could see how it happens but we need much more to go right than for people on I-90. Initially most models have a quick burst of snow even for the coast but the primary and deep southerly flow will keep that brief unless the upper low can really dig and force the redevelopment south which cuts off the warm air. The consensus is that happens in time for 50mi or so north of the city and pivots lots of moisture overhead-we possibly dryslot and stay warm down here until the back end which is maybe when we pick up a little more snow since these closed 500 lows often have precip on the west side of the surface low, and cold air comes back south. Something like the 4-1-97 type evolution which demolished Boston to Albany, Catskills and Poconos. We really need this all to happen a little further south.

The place for this should be from near Boston to the Catskills IMO. If models start ticking back north I think this is about done for NYC outside of a lucky 1-2” on the back end. There’s still an outside shot this can produce near the coast but we need the blocking high to be locked in and force the redevelopment to be earlier and south.

A closed 500 low should have some backlash precip, that should at least give most of us a period of snow. Those usually aren’t impressive but they can surprise. The key is the closed upper low that rotates moisture all the way around from the north.

In this case it would be a negative trend but it happens more often than not. We really need that block to keep this south because initially the bowling ball primary will try to drive the warm air in and resist redeveloping. Which brings up another trend over the last few years- long lasting primary lows.

Jan 25, 2016 says hi.

If the blocking prevents that it won’t be able to. But no doubt the odds still favor New England and upstate NY over down here. Maybe my location on the north shore now can get me to an inch or so at the end after getting drenched. That’s my hope for this at this point. If it ends up better, great but not too disappointing if it’s all rain.

If the high keeps getting stronger it could.But maybe it’s overcorrecting. The reason it’s looking better for us is that high-hopefully that can keep going.

Becoming slightly intrigued but a very long way to go. We need the high and block to the north to be strong otherwise it trends back north and crushes Boston to the Catskills.

If I see a slushy inch or two I’d be thrilled. Always nice to see the eye candy on the Euro but the high up north can weaken and this goes back to a I-90 special. Odds are that SNE will be smiling a lot more than us down here but who knows I guess.