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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Rain picking up-mod to heavy. Not much wind yet.
  2. jm1220
    Jeez-Long Beach through the city getting deluged. Hope some part of it makes it up here.
  3. jm1220
    JFK 0.81” last hour.
  4. jm1220
    Winds should pick up quite a bit here on the east side with these showers that come through. That’s where I’d assume the 60mph sustained winds are somewhere. Not expecting that but maybe some 50-55mph gusts on Fire Island or the Hamptons.
  5. jm1220
    Getting breezy here in a moderate to maybe heavier shower. I’m not too optimistic about much more rain based on the radar which looks showery at best south of here and a massive dry slot but winds should pick up more especially in any of the heavy showers.
  6. jm1220
    Yeah-should add the 1100Z run just out looked a little better.
  7. jm1220
    HRRR looks lousy once you're east of Nassau. Essentially 0.25" or so in Suffolk through the end of the run-breezy to windy showery day. Max gusts over LI and NJ shore get to 40mph or so. Heavy rain is essentially NYC and west. Doesn't match up with radar terribly well right now but the heavy band over the ocean essentially consolidates over NJ and breaks up east from there. Hopefully that's wrong but the trend's been pretty obvious.
  8. jm1220
    With ratios and banding could be lollis to 60”!!
  9. jm1220
    Last minute trends look west. Not ideal for East of NYC but whatever. Hopefully it’s at least enough rain here to green up the lawns for a while.
  10. jm1220
    Crazy that we have a homegrown developing TS so close by. Usually we get remnants, or long tracked systems from the Caribbean, Cape Verde etc.
  11. jm1220
    Hard to really pinpoint the center. NHC said it just reformed NE a little? The convection is all east of it so that usually means the center will try to locate closer to it.
  12. jm1220
    Might be a good difference between west/east of the track. East of the track along the coast could have 50-60mph gusts, west and there won't be much wind.
  13. jm1220
    Heavy rain in any tropical type system up here is west of the track. That will shift as it comes north.
  14. jm1220
    This won’t be a high impact storm. It’ll be good for the brown lawns and winds will increase for a while but it’ll be in and out way too quick for much else. Many of us are considered abnormally dry so little flooding.
  15. jm1220
    Far from certain we’d be in the SE quadrant. Honestly if this low goes west of us it likely spends too much time inland for it to be too strong.
  16. jm1220
    It's also never really over these warm waters for very long.
  17. jm1220
    Definitely-especially if the low does end up a bit inland and southerly flow ends up moving uphill. More rain is always helpful in the summer where most T-storms stay inland and where we are near the coast dries up, so hopefully it stays closer to the coast. We'll see-doesn't look like it will be over a big area generally so smaller shifts in the track could mean significantly more/less rain. As usual in the NE, along and left of the track probably gets the most.
  18. jm1220
    Figures it starts largely out at sea on models yesterday and prior and most of the rain would hit SE Mass, and it ends up tracking inland like this now and we get not much for the opposite reason.
  19. jm1220
    Definitely made up for the misses for the week in this area.
  20. jm1220
    I know-absolute torrent and brilliant lightning. LOUD thunder.
  21. jm1220
    The sea breeze boundary likely flared them up and then died right down. Haven’t seen any report of hail, maybe up around Woodbury?
  22. jm1220
    No hail where I am in S Huntington but some loud thunder and heavy rain. Maybe 5 minutes south on Rt 110 looks worse.
  23. jm1220
    Good downpour in Long Beach. Definitely needed-lawns here are brown.
  24. jm1220
    It’s comical how often this pattern repeats with either the cutoffs coming overhead or some trough digging northeast of us. Whenever models start hinting at it 7-8 days ahead you know what’s coming.
  25. jm1220
    Whenever you see that trough build northeast of us, this year expect it to strengthen and expand. The number of days with primarily a westerly wind is a small fraction of the days with a southerly or easterly wind in the last 3-4 months.
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