jm1220

The start of summer drought season for coastal areas. So far everything’s still green here but crazy how below normal the rain has been with how cool/cloudy it’s been. Just overall boring weather which has been the case for 6 months now.

Only 60 right now at Oak Beach with 35mph south winds. Low-mid 60s in Long Beach.

Deep southerly flow and the ridge being so steep that the warmest air aloft is shooting directly north of us. The marine influence one way or another this spring has been incredibly consistent. Almost no westerly flow at all.

First time hiking up Jayne’s Hill today despite it being 10 mins from me. Was gorgeous.

Summer like here this afternoon with temps in the upper 70s.

Mid 60s today here. Glad I’m not on the south shore.

I call it the annual South Shore drought. Mediterranean like. It’s often weeks where the coast gets little rain in the summer but inland NJ/NY can get several inches or more from frequent pop up storms.

It’s not bad today, better than I thought it would be this week but with the low coming closer along with the high NE of us this weekend looks cloudier/maybe rainy which honestly might be a good thing and keep the crowds away from the beaches. Bottom line is we stay below normal until this constant backdoor friendly pattern changes. We need real westerly flow aloft rather than troughs anchoring over Newfoundland.

The weekend could be pretty nasty/raw if the GFS/Euro are right. The upper low and surface reflection finally come east and a high builds over Nova Scotia. Probably means pretty stiff east wind and clouds/showers. By mid next week the ridge might finally push far enough east to turn the flow westerly and really warm us up. As long as these highs keep building NE of us we stay in this pattern.

Literally from now until hr 144 of the GFS on the 0z run, the wind into NYC is from some easterly direction per EWall site, from due east to NE, and at times pretty stiff. I wonder if there's some historical way to look up wind direction at JFK or another area airport/site to see if anything compares to this disaster of a spring.

Baaaaaamp. All I have to say about that pretty much. The solar cycle (even more extreme examples) contributes a small amount to the overall climate when CO2 forcing is becoming so large a contributor.

Today was gorgeous BTW. Was in Long Beach most of the day. Seabreeze and pretty sharp cool-off came in at around 3pm.

It won't be coming west-looks like a pretty sharp recurve. We should know by now-once the Euro catches onto a particular solution with tropical systems it's much more likely right vs. the GFS. The Euro has several days at least of crap easterly flow and below normal temps/probably low clouds and garbage. The ridge is oriented west of us and a big trough is digging in NE of us and highs building over the Maritimes. To make it better we have a cutoff low SW of us to aid in dragging in the easterly flow garbage, with any interesting weather mostly well south of here. You know the rest.

This past winter wasn’t supposed to be huge for us. I saw perditions mostly for below average snow. Also we don’t want a strong Nina. Those favor big SE ridges and heavy snow in the upper Midwest and I-90 north.

I didn't mind it outside much today actually. But yeah, days of more garbage easterly flow and wet weather incoming.

Not that uncommon this time of year. It can easily be 45-50 here with raw conditions and in the 60s or even 70s there on west winds.

Looks like more of a broad westerly flow developing instead of a trough building over the Maritimes, so hopefully that can keep the backdoor fronts away. Hard to predict much sustained warmth here when the ridge can't build east of us and has to battle that Maritimes trough-the backdoor front is only one flinch of that trough away.

Yeah weak strung out crap. Good for high elevations like the Catskills but some flurries at the end elsewhere. Next threat-lol. In November before we warm up in Dec-Feb and then get threats again in late March/April?

It would be melted so fast that you could blink and you’d never know it snowed. But yeah, historic.

Was a beaut today, gorgeous. Too bad it won’t be lasting.

Looks like the models that broke up the rain shield as it got into NYC and east will be right. Based on the radar it could just be some light showers for the rest of it and that's it.

GFS essentially has nothing east of the city due to the rain shield breaking up and unimpressive elsewhere. I know most other models are heavier with the rain but it'll be interesting to see what happens with the rain shield as it comes through NJ.

As soon as the long range models a few weeks ago started showing the trough over the Maritimes and a -NAO develop, the writing was in bright red on the wall for this month.

Flurries currently

Unfortunately it's a new normal to set up these -NAO patterns and backdoor-favoring troughs over the Maritimes in April.