jm1220

Looks perfectly fine to me for 90% of us, maybe not the well NW areas. Low really gets going a good bit E of NC but makes a sharp turn north with the bombing upper air low. Very nice phase but a bit delayed from last run. Not surprising since other models are still decently east of the Euro. Maybe some sort of compromise.

Part of the big time upside is that the surface low gets captured by the exploding upper air low and slows down for a few hours. There’ll be a window for the low to bomb and draw tropical moisture into the cold air from the much warmer than average Atlantic largely untouched by nor’easters so far this year. I definitely believe there can be 18-24” or higher totals if we see a bomb like the GGEM or Euro last night. It’s just where does that happen. Can this be a storm where it can make it west into NYC or is it reserved to eastern LI/New England? This can definitely be remembered as a big timer if the pieces come together.

Gun to my head, this looks to me at this point like a Juno-type outcome and we want the west trends to continue to really call it a storm for NYC. NW suburbs need some big help. Storms like these often tick east a little at the very end. We want the phasing to happen sooner. LI especially east of the William Floyd and CT east of I-91 is in a good spot. But we're still not even in NAM range with this yet so lots of time for significant changes.

I was gonna say, amazing how blah he thinks this'll be. I mean, my second story bedroom window might still be clear by the end of it.

There's still room for it to come west. The ridge axis out west isn't in a bad place, and there's room for the southern energy to be more consolidated and phase faster. GEFS also just came out and went west, with several members that would send the low over Cape Cod. We'd get buried even into NYC with those. No doubt 12z so far is going in a good direction.

Better interaction of the two waves and the system as a whole slowing down at our latitude. GFS/GGEM are getting there. But overall very encouraging.

It’s getting there but I wouldn’t be sweating what the Nam has to say at this range. It’s been known to change on a dime with these things. Any model which shows the southern wave eject faster is what we want.

I guess one consolation is even the flat GFS gave us a 3-5” snow event and 6” for the twin forks from the northern stream wave.

Yep. The key here is how much southern energy phases into our developing storm. Euro goes for all the marbles clearly. Some of those west members would change east of NYC over to rain.

Nice to look at the 0z Euro last night but have to look at it with skepticism until other models get on board. If we’re dragging and leaving behind energy in the SW, hard to see how it’s a significant event for most of us, except maybe eastern Suffolk. But if we do have a good phase it can be a monster. That still has to be resolved.

It trended somewhat better which is all we want to see at this point.

I think the lowest it could go is zero. Which everyone here should be prepared for if something like the GFS happens.

I’m pretty sure the “hold energy back” bias was fixed in its last upgrade but @bluewave would likely know better. It’s at least reason to be suspicious of the last GFS run but we have a few days to see what happens with all the different pieces.

The 18z Euro only goes out 84 hrs. The ensembles do go out to our storm timeframe though so I’ll be interested in that. I agree too much freaking out. Lots of pieces to this storm and we need them to cooperate. We need at least some southern stream involvement here, a solution where it hangs back that much wouldn’t work. But quite a ways to go. I wouldn’t lock into anything for another 48hrs at least.

We want the southern stream cooperating to some extent. If it gets left behind like that it'll maybe end up a Cape grazer and blow up for downeast ME.

I’d gladly sign for that. Epic amounts were a bit east of MBY but it was probably 18-20” here. Again it’s way too early to nail down an outcome.

That’s really nice. Lots of big time outcomes for 95% of us. Shows the range of outcomes well. None go west of LI which is encouraging at this stage.

Deformation axis runs from NYC area through central New England. It develops well aloft so it can transport snow a good bit west of the track. It would be high ratio snow too. It’s not stunted like the UK has it.

The storm itself is likely due to the agreement on the models at this point but the track is anyone’s guess. The Euro was a very slight change from being even more of a bomb for our area. But it easily could be too much of a good thing and it phases early/tries to hug the coast.

For Boston or anywhere I’d just say “chance at a significant coastal storm for Saturday” and not mention precip types. Still a few days before worrying about rain or snow. Euro is a very nice solution but gets going a hair too late for the huge totals in our area. It might be holding back a little too much energy in the SW which might mean it gets going faster.

It’s not impossible at all to get 18-24” or even more (not saying this storm would do it) with a fast mover. 2-3”/hr adds up fast. 2/7/13 lasted 12 hours or so and had 30” in central Suffolk County.

We want this to really start getting going east of NJ or close to our latitude. If it goes off too soon it’ll want to hug the coast and we get something like the GGEM. Of course too late/progressive is another option and it grazes the Cape.

I wouldn’t be “scared” of anything yet, way too early. But any outcome is really possible here. I guess the hugger/inland scenario is a little less likely because of the trough orientation but that can’t be ruled out either if the storm bombs like crazy early on. We really have a couple more days before we can start to hone in on the outcome. But it’s high risk/high reward for sure. If it comes together right this will be a big time event with the amount of energy to work with along with the warm Atlantic relatively unscathed due to the lack of nor’easters so far this winter.

Flurries here now, dusting since last night.

Flurries here now, dusting of new snow from overnight.