jm1220

Speaking of which, downgraded to TS at 5pm

Ehh garbage. May not still be a hurricane. Good news for FL which has enough on its hands already

Looks pretty garbage-y on satellite. For me I’m looking to see where the heavy rain axis sets up. There’ll be better winds East of the track but I doubt this will be more than a 60mph TS when it gets here. It may be a 75-80 mph hurricane in NC but shear/dry air won’t be going away as a problem for it.

Small differences mean a Matthew grazer track or one that goes inland along I-95 in FL. In a way we should hope for (for a less intense system up here) the 50 mile west track into FL. It being over water for 24 hours longer or more gives more time to strengthen before hitting NC and speeding up here.

Small changes in the ridge-strengthen and it goes further west, and a small 50 mile difference could mean into FL vs no landfall until NC or no landfall at all. Either way hopefully some good rain makes it up here but a hurricane coming into LI is still quite unlikely.

Nothing at all like Sandy. That was only so intense up here because it phased with a powerful mid latitude trough and was forced to by the blocking NE of it. It was essentially a bigger and stronger Perfect Storm 1991 forced inland. This setup is nothing like that.

When storms are recurving NE near our area, they are often choking on dry air, getting sheared quite a bit and affected by cool waters. Water here is warmer than normal but not enough to sustain a near major hurricane. I would say at max it would be a strong TS up here. I’d hope to be on the west side where the rain would be. Also more likely is it tracks NE from Cape Hatteras and is entirely out to sea other than high waves.

No rain here but a heavy shower looks to have gone just south of here in Melville.

Probably should’ve been excessive heat warnings for today.

Even with any onshore winds, water is too warm for it to cool things much and it brings the humidity. FOK is up to 90 and wind is SW. Dewpoint of 76!!

Not every day that it’s 5 degrees hotter at FRG than EWR. It’s a roaster today for sure.

I'd rather take the 100 on west wind with less humidity than 94 on SW wind with hideousness. If anything it was worse in Long Beach this past Sunday because of the humidity despite it being a few degrees cooler than inland areas. Water is too warm now for the sea breeze to be much relief.

Torrential downpour, some decently loud thunder.

Heavy rain and thunder just started here.

Disgusting again today-91/77/105 at my closest station.

Low 90s here in Long Beach and absolutely disgusting.

I drove down to Long Beach today and the humidity here made it feel even worse despite it being cooler. That’s how it works-it might be cooler down here in these heat waves but the humidity mitigates it and today then some. The water’s plenty warm too because of the onshore flow all this time-no upwelling.

Another dumping pop up shower right now. Must have been some kind of complex/boundary that survived from Rockland down to here.

Downpour here in S Huntington.

Humidity is disgusting today. Was just out for a walk and drenched in sweat after 10 minutes.

Mon or Tue might have more of a westerly component to the winds but until then it’ll be hard to get out of the mid 80s right along the south shore, especially since it might be a stiff onshore wind. The humidity might make that stifling anyway. It’ll be worse up here since it should be 5-7 degs warmer each day with the same humidity.

And even in the summer we're still cursed with the "last second west trend". Argh.

A real tropical system (although may have been more hybrid in the end) making landfall in NJ is quite notable anytime, particularly in the 1st half of July. Thankfully it was a home grown development that just blew up last night and small in size, not a huge system like Irene or Sandy that would've caused big surge flooding. On the east side LI would've gotten hit much worse in that case. This was something like a 12/30/00 of tropical systems. I'll be honest that it was a decent wind event but overall lame where I am. Max here I'd say was about 40mph, there's some small branches/twigs on my street. A little over 0.6" at FRG (closest station to me) and ISP, 40-50 mph gusts if you were lucky, and the heavy rain lasting maybe an hour other than showers here and there with no severe that I know of on the east side was a letdown. NYC, NJ and western Nassau did well but models generally did have the good rain extending further east than what ended up happening. Consensus still did have the western half of Suffolk getting to maybe 1.5". Those lame HRRR runs and couple of GFS, NAM runs ended up being right. Don't want to say a bust on the rain, but.... The east side of a tropical system up here is nowhere to be if you want good rain (Other than Irene-it tracked just west of me in Long Beach and I still had over 5" of rain). The track ended up being just west of the NHC path as well, went almost due north from where it formed instead of NNE. The ground will be baked in a couple days again with the 90+ heat incoming.

FRG gusting to 40mph. Altogether pretty disappointing though East of the city which is what the writing on the wall became this morning, assuming this is about it for the rainfall. FRG is at about 0.6” and ISP 0.11”. Too bad this couldn’t head NNE instead of getting yanked due north. This area could really use the rain.

Gusting better now especially with this heavier shower coming through. Maybe I’m spoiled from living on the south shore for so long for wind but it’s probably 35mph now.