
jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If we have snow cover for this Arctic airmass it would definitely help maximize it.
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That dual max with shaft zone will likely happen somewhere. Usually does with these energy transfer situations. The 12z HRRR was pretty nasty with that over NJ and E PA. Glad the Nam finally woke up. 4-6” looks good for LI (locally 7-8” if the banding works out) and maybe NYC, 2-4” west of the city.
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Whatever falls, it’ll be nice to wake up to in the morning. I’m thinking some people can make it to 6” depending on where the banding happens but generally it’s 4-6” from the city on east and 2-4” north and west. There is a good signal IMO for a fronto band developing and setting up somewhere for a couple hours. Most favored location for that may be central LI and CT. Some have mentioned the Super Bowl day storm last year and that might not be a bad analog. It was favored for city on east locations, was a fast mover and a few places ended up with 8-9”. Maybe there could be similar surprises.
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Meso models and the GFS seem to like a good fronto band from about where I am to the ORH area through CT. We'll see how that pans out. Ratios may be over 10-1 in that due to the strong lift within that band. This might not be done ticking west and stronger. The trough looked a good bit more impressive tonight with a sharp more consolidated S/W, so NW areas might also be in for more. It's still also acting a little funky with convection offshore.