jm1220

Meso models and the GFS seem to like a good fronto band from about where I am to the ORH area through CT. We'll see how that pans out. Ratios may be over 10-1 in that due to the strong lift within that band. This might not be done ticking west and stronger. The trough looked a good bit more impressive tonight with a sharp more consolidated S/W, so NW areas might also be in for more. It's still also acting a little funky with convection offshore.

RGEM looked about the same to me at 0z as last run. General 2-4" type event.

I'm only concerned about what it shows aloft pretty much. Had a decently better look.

Still a disjointed look but better overall which is all I was looking for at this point.

That would be nice. Are the SREFs burying us with 12+ yet? I wouldn’t take a lot of stock in the HRRR until tomorrow. Hopefully the NAM finally comes in more consolidated/amped finally.

If it completely covers up the grass I’ll be happy. Time for it to finally happen this winter. Maybe my area will be one of the lucky ones.

2-5” seems to be what most are going with and hard to disagree. Storm looks disjointed as it’s coming through our area and doesn’t really get together until it’s NE of here. Fast movement doesn’t help. However there’s a decent chance someone could pick up more where they sit under a band. The VVs aren’t epic by any means but it doesn’t take long to get to 6” under a heavy fronto band. 5” would be E Suffolk and 2” would be well NW of the city.

This convection to the east is really driving the NAM batty. Hate to say it but the RGEM’s been a lot more consistent. GFS seems to be doing the same with the convection.

The few dustings I had this winter add up to maybe 0.5” or so. Monday was brutal. Good to see the system trending west. This won’t be a huge system here due to the fact it’s getting it’s act together as it goes by and it being a fast mover. But I could see people getting 6” if we keep this more amped trend. VV’s look impressive as well which would make for some nice banding features where it can go to town. The most likely people for that would be east of the city for now but we’ll see how much longer the trend goes on. Still time for it to continue. I wouldn’t want it for MBY any further west than the new RGEM has for example.

Had some glaze here which is melting now with light plain rain.

Wouldn't trust the RGEM on its own yet. If the Euro keeps coming west then maybe. NAM obviously would be a disaster. I do buy the dual-max idea it has with the initial round of snow well inland, a subsidence zone then the coastal low snow. but to me it's ridiculous how bad it has that. It's just a disjointed mess it seems.

They won't until all the pieces are onshore and well sampled. Still could see some good swings.

And this kinda happened 4 years ago today. January 4, 2018 Blizzard (weather.gov)

If the storm had come 100 miles further north and gave us even a few inches of snow, many of us would've been 5 degrees colder at least. Atlantic City was down to 10, Dover DE was 13, BWI was 15.

This could very easily come storming back west and by this time tomorrow or Thu 0z we’re sweating the rain snow line. Small changes can definitely still happen and make for big changes downstream. The S/W might be sampled as more robust than models have now.

Yeah, seems like a good amount of lean to the west.

This is such a chaotic pattern because of the fast flow that it’s hard to jump onto anything more than 72hrs out. It’s still a very vigorous trough and S/W coming in so it wouldn’t take much for it to come back west.

There’s a lead S/W that’s dampening the ridge off the east coast, which might lessen how much this can amp up. Also it’s a progressive overall pattern with the ridge out west nudging the trough east. But there’s still plenty of time for changes that would affect what we each get.

Rich get richer this run. Never thought in a Nina like this that DC to ACY would be on the cusp of significant snow on snow.

I’d have to think there would be a 4-8” swath with a look like that. That would be some heavy snow for a few hours.

Thankfully in this case we have such a progressive pattern. The next trough is pushing into the NW and nudging the ridge/trough east ahead of it. That might keep our storm offshore although it probably also results in it developing later.

Low was 17-18 here.

Something like the 6z GFS would be ideal for most of our area. Something to keep in mind too is that this is something of a late bloomer, so the mid level lows are taking shape as it goes by. The storm will likely be worse QPF-wise anyway over SNE. But it'll still be a decent to good event for whoever can stay all snow.

NAM might be over amped, it usually has one or two crazy runs, but today and tonight will be interesting to see if it keeps coming west in general. Obviously a track over LI won’t be good for anyone east of NYC.

Haven’t had a chance to look at the mid level lows yet but yes you definitely want the various mid level lows to track south of you. If they track north of you it means mid level warm air will be a problem along with a dry slot.