jm1220

Crazy for this lead time.

I’m hoping that’s been fixed to an extent but it’s always a concern. These big ocean storms often trend east a little at the end. I certainly hope the Euro’s not that overdone and we see other models trend toward it.

Big cluster showing a bomb south of Montauk. Those would probably be 20”+ for most of us.

I think the GFS was getting there but the evolution of it was a little too progressive. Upper air lows close off a little too late for people west of Suffolk County. We want a slowed down amped evolution like the Euro.

I definitely agree. There’ll be a heck of an easterly moist feed into the storm from the warmer than average Atlantic. I can see there being a couple of death bands with a few inches per hour. Great upper level dynamics too as the lows close off to maximize lift.

I wouldn't put specific amounts out until tomorrow evening and just note "potential for a significant winter storm is increasing for Saturday" etc and that what we get is most likely to be snow. There'll probably be a big have/have-not difference like these storms normally give, NYC is in a tight spot like in most storms and hyping big amounts up can still backfire. There's still time tomorrow night or Thu or even Fri to discuss big amounts if models continue the trends. I remember the debacle around the 2/8/13 storm and the insane NAM run Channel 4 literally put up on screen, and the Armageddon like hype before 1/27/15. It really does make people less likely to pay attention before one really does hit. That said I have no idea what Lee Goldberg or anyone else is saying since I don't watch them anyway.

For those who want to nitpick, the upper air lows don't close off soon enough for many of us so the heavy snow is forced east somewhat. Euro closes them off much sooner. But overall a significant move toward the Euro.

GFS is getting there and trending toward the euro. Again all I really care about at this point.

18z RGEM is taking way longer to phase the southern stream in and has the low further east. Take that for what it's worth too (not much).

It's the 84hr NAM. I like the idea of it bringing the energy east faster. That's all I take from it.

From your keyboard to God's eyes...

NAM would be an annihilation if we saw another 2-3 panels.

Lots of Euro ensemble members west of the mean again that seem to go just SE of Montauk. I’m sure those members are bombs. 2-3 members skew the average to the east which go well SE of Cape Cod.

If the stall/capture happens in that spot yikes for us. But the consensus is still a good bit NE of there for it, closer to Cape Cod. My gut tells me it’ll take a lot of luck to spread the wealth well inland at least west of NYC but the Euro’s what you’d want to see for that to happen. Its tendency to over-amp these systems in recent years gives me some pause.

If you have 30-40mph+ winds, it breaks apart the flakes and lowers ratios. There’s usually a western most deformation band where ratios can be maxed but if winds are that high ratios can be cut down. 12 or 13-1 I can see but huge ratios won’t happen with strong winds.

This ain’t the fourth quarter. Maybe we’re getting close to halftime. “End of the beginning”? We have way too many battle scars from late shifts/fails on these to start calling it a win. And the other models largely still fringe NYC and have NW areas high and dry. Have to keep the trend going on the other models.

Kuchera shows 40” for Ocean City MD or close to that. Totally plausible!! Let’s get Roger Smith a beach cabin down there. Might take a century to get him dug out.

I would also dump any crazy Kuchera snow maps. Winds will lower ratios to 10-1, maybe slightly higher to like 12-1 especially near the coast. But where the banding happens will definitely produce big time. The “max” shown over DE is from the early closing off and maxing out lift from the closing off upper lows there but it’s way too early to pinpoint where that happens.

I just remember the problems it seems to have with overdoing/overamping these type of redeveloping storms. Hopefully this bias was fixed since Jan 2015 when we were burned west of Suffolk County. I’d really want the models like the GFS keep coming west to be confident in it.

I just wish this was 24hrs away not 84-96. We still can’t jump head first on this. Maybe weenie first. Lots of time for significant trends that would affect the outcome.

That’s the capture from the bombing upper air and surface lows catching up to each other. No question if that happens people will get 20”+ where the heavy snow banding can set up. There will be a behemoth moist fetch in the warm Conveyor belt coming into it as well being lifted over the cold air.

Looks perfectly fine to me for 90% of us, maybe not the well NW areas. Low really gets going a good bit E of NC but makes a sharp turn north with the bombing upper air low. Very nice phase but a bit delayed from last run. Not surprising since other models are still decently east of the Euro. Maybe some sort of compromise.

Part of the big time upside is that the surface low gets captured by the exploding upper air low and slows down for a few hours. There’ll be a window for the low to bomb and draw tropical moisture into the cold air from the much warmer than average Atlantic largely untouched by nor’easters so far this year. I definitely believe there can be 18-24” or higher totals if we see a bomb like the GGEM or Euro last night. It’s just where does that happen. Can this be a storm where it can make it west into NYC or is it reserved to eastern LI/New England? This can definitely be remembered as a big timer if the pieces come together.

Gun to my head, this looks to me at this point like a Juno-type outcome and we want the west trends to continue to really call it a storm for NYC. NW suburbs need some big help. Storms like these often tick east a little at the very end. We want the phasing to happen sooner. LI especially east of the William Floyd and CT east of I-91 is in a good spot. But we're still not even in NAM range with this yet so lots of time for significant changes.

I was gonna say, amazing how blah he thinks this'll be. I mean, my second story bedroom window might still be clear by the end of it.