jm1220

I lost my dad just over 2 years ago when I was 33 and I still think about him every day and probably will for the rest of my life. He wasn't too much into my weather hobby; my mom was always a little annoyed at it-"why do you care so much about snow?". But he would at least have conversations with me about things like this.

With this storm and the dynamics/moisture at play, QPF probably isn't overdone. But again the Kuchera maps especially in the worst of it with blizzard conditions aren't happening. I could see maybe 12-1 ratios there. Winds will break the flakes apart and hurt ratios. The best ratios will be inland where winds will be reduced and there can be more piling up (but there will be less QPF).

I’ll believe something like that when I see it but that Nam run would be how it happens.

I’m so sorry for your loss. Hopefully this upcoming storm can be something of a consolation for you. Here’s to your dad!!

O Lord above, only one thing I pray unto you this night. THAT THE NAM FINALLY GOT A CLUE!!!

Wow. Essentially draw a line south from Nantucket. Each of the solutions west of there when nearest us would probably be big for the city on east. Huge chunk of members there.

That was a very encouraging run even back into NYC. I wouldn't go crazy over the precip output although it still shows a borderline MECS in the city verbatim. And yes it can still keep ticking west if the upper low closes off a few hours sooner as others pointed out. Trend is undeniable for the Euro since 6z to bring the heavy snow west. Interested to see the EPS and how many monsters it has that can bring crippling amounts into the city. Those are a possibility. Not high possibility but can't be ignored. But wow, central and eastern Suffolk are quite possibly in for an all out blizzard on Saturday. 2 foot amounts will be common there if the banding sets up like the Euro showed here. Could be 2/8/13-like where that happens, Euro showed roughly along Rt 112 over to the William Floyd for the death band. Latest NAM was a little east of there. And NW of NYC should be encouraged too at the heavier amounts inching west. Could probably be a warning event on this run out to western NJ, and there ratios will help. Again I wouldn't go higher than 12 or 13:1 ratios near the coast because of the strong winds. But the 1.2" liquid it shows on the Nassau/Suffolk border would still be 14-15". Can't really talk all out blizzard for near NYC yet but trust me it isn't too far away from that with some minor added improvement.

Probably a good call at this point.

That would be awesome if we get the closed low just a little NW of there. I couldn't care less what crappy GFS surface reflection would be.

RGEM looks very similar to the last 3 runs.

Maybe. Hopefully we can get this tucked a little further. Lots of possibilities still. A GFS dud can’t be written off either given the number of EPS members fairly similar.

Based on the 700mb features it makes sense to me where the heavy snow bands would be located at least. It would start over central to eastern Suffolk and then obliterate their way up into E CT into MA. Good snow would make it back to NYC but not the death band stuff. It looks like Juno 2015 pretty much. 1/4/18 had a similar track/upper air features and may have a similar evolution in the end. BTW, don't look at the 3k NAM. Total dud pretty much. Incredible how fickle this all is. Fingers crossed that these tucked in, wrapped up models win out.

The death 3-5"/hr band on that would likely be around the William Floyd Parkway. It's usually a little west of where that crazy frontogenesis line is. For the city I'd want that about 50 mi west of there. Also that'd be a tremendous moist feed. 90+kt S and E winds coming in from off the ocean at this level. That would certainly be a burial where that band sets up.

Looks like a nice improvement from 12z. If we can just keep that low west of the B/M a bit as it bombs out.

In any situation when I see a 500mb chart like that I'd think 90% of us are about to be buried. Nice backing of the flow already as trough is about to go negative.

Where you are, definitely. 12"+ is probably a lock and likely 15"+.

It doesn’t “push it away” but if it gets out of hand it flattens the heights out ahead of it somewhat which we don’t want. And also…. It’s the Nam.

The bickering is so ridiculous. Take it to PM or banter or better yet nowhere and grow the F up. In the meantime when I see those posts they’re getting deleted.

Yep, crazy the spread in EPS outcomes this close in. A few horrible GFS like ones there but hopefully it’s just the model trying to get a clue given the dynamic setup. I tend to think we’re okay east of the city and golden for places like the Forks but plenty of watching left.

I think it likes this mesolow/convective low idea and it’s struggling where to put the main low. If it consolidates on those western lows earlier we’re in a better place.

I said all along with this keep expectations in check but there’s big upside potential. Non weenies here said the same. I’ll gladly take the about 10” it gives me and run. But there’s always a sense of missing out watching Boston get twice if not more so hopefully the minor changes happen to share more wealth. If I was well NW I wouldn’t have gotten sucked in. There were only a couple really nuts Euro runs that brought heavy snow that far. Besides that it’s an evolution that isn’t favorable there.

That would give a new meaning to the Coney Island Cyclone.

If you compare this 12z to 0z last night (not 6z) it's overall a little better. So it improved its way even beyond 0z after the lousy 6z. It'll be interesting to see EPS as well and how many tucked in monsters we have.

Possibly. Models today seem to be developing a meso low/convective-based low over the Gulf Stream as the coastal low gets going. The upper air dynamics eventually capture it all and consolidate it but it happens verbatim a little too late for us except for far eastern areas. And yes it can happen. It happened with our storm earlier this month but over time the coastal low became better defined and hopefully this one does too.

They don’t come out until 2pm.