jm1220

Ratios are determined by what happens in the cloud not surface temps. That part will help but if we see 50mph gusts, the flakes get broken up and ratios are close to 10-1 regardless. I’ve seen several systems where we had teens but tiny or sand flakes with lousy snow growth.

I guess we’ll see. It really can happen, happened with our last storm. Hopefully the UK/GGEM last night didn’t overcorrect. GFS still being stubborn obviously but it’s probably way too suppressed and it’s up to old tricks. My ‘bar’ for NYC is a 4-6” type event, be thrilled with more than that.

It’s been on this amped trend which other models look to be picking up which is a feather in its cap here it seems. 0z and 6z both went east though and now NYC is at the edge of a warning event on the model. Want that to reverse obviously. It has the stall/capture too far NE.

Uhm, yes. 2" liquid from the city east and 20+ inches at 10:1 ratio. Would be a NAM like annihilation. Perfect track for us and upper lows blowing their top right over us.

Wow.

I didn't mean that literally lol. Great news about the GGEM and (hopefully) UKMET. If we get the GFS on its own and the other models trending to a bomb I'm pretty sure we can discount it.

Maybe they flew enough sorties and dropsondes that the jet stream changed into a look that would get us a nice storm.

Wouldn't have it any other way here with these. We've had big final 24-36 hr changes on the plus and minus side in the recent past. 1/4/18-big plus, Juno 2015 big minus.

Doesn't really show the capture scenario so actually it could be longer if that happens.

RGEM much much improved. Has a warning criteria event out to around I-287/87/I-84. Probably around a foot for the city on east.

West enough to where NYC gets a major hit. Relatively small changes needed to get it there. And it can happen in a pretty short timeframe. The 1/4/18 storm that first coined the "bomb cyclone" popular term was supposed to fringe NYC at best and clobber E LI and Boston until 36hrs out or even less. Central Park ended with 10" I believe and I ended up with 14-15" 25 miles east of NYC because of a relatively minor shift.

We want the upper 500mb low to close off just south of us. That would really deliver it. Pay the most attention to the upper level evolution.

If it’s way down south like over NC and it occludes down there it would just kind of drift east and not get the best dynamics up here. But the evolution looked weird and it again blows up random convection that it seems to chase. It was a lot better than 18z that’s what I care about. The upper air evolution was a hair away from another 12z blockbuster. Now we cross fingers for other models to follow.

NAM digs a little too far south/closes off too far south and it kind of escapes east and occludes. Again since it’s the Nam I really couldn’t care less. Just hysterical.

That’s absolutely embarrassing however this turns out. So glad the Nam is getting discontinued soon.

It kind of just gets left behind between the diving in northern stream and steep PNA ridge it looks like, like a cut off eddy in a stream. But hopefully it ends up participating more and adding to the storm.

Even if the Nam shows a bomb soon it still doesn’t mean much lol. It should be in a straitjacket. Would be nice to see that the trend toward more separation stopped and hopefully reverses.

SREFs should be pretty much disregarded at this point.

I can see how it gets there for sure but I’m hesitant due to all the disagreement. The Euro’s been nothing special this winter so far but it’s been better than the GFS. It’s still a fragile setup that can go to crap as we’re seeing on other guidance. But I really hope you’re right because the potential is through the roof (maybe up to the roof) if it does come together.

If the Euro fails this bad this close in it should just be tossed from there on. It’s bent a little to the other models but has shown at least a warning event for NYC for 6-7 runs straight. And the ensembles coming west again shows it really must be seeing something to give it a chance.

The NAM is absolutely schizophrenic as we've seen now so I'd give it little/zero weight at this point. Still waiting on the GFS/GGEM to REALLY hopefully come west to give the Euro support.

I do think the well NW areas need a lot of help here and are on life support with this one but it hasn't been a surprise given the trends over the last day or so. I'd put the "there's still a decent shot" line at I-287/87 and then along I-84 east of there. By decent I mean a warning level event. There could still be 2-4" or something like that well NW.

The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream. Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point.

18z RGEM looks about the same to me, maybe a small bit SE.

If this really becomes a suppressed garbage storm again like the one we recently missed that hit SE VA/Delmarva like the NAM has it this run, I'll just crack up. That would make this winter rival 11-12. 01-02, 19-20 level of fail, despite the one lucky storm we had early this month. And I'll be on the 'warm us up and just get this god awful thing over with' train.