jm1220

We had 30” of snow in February last winter in some places. We want Dec to produce but it’s one month.

Light snow in Melville.

LGA probably had a wind from the water which is still well above freezing. The extreme north shore was also struggling to get below freezing here. I think I got down to 23 a few miles south of the sound.

23 here. Coldest of the season by a few degrees.

LOL. I guess there has to be a first time in history where that happens. The usual Central PA Middle Finger lives on here so maybe it’s not complete bunk?

Easy setup to fall apart if the trough becomes more progressive/less amped. You want the strong vort to close off south of you-weaker/progressive no dice. As Bluewave showed, the PAC Jet might be having its say.

We need whatever help we can get from the NAO. The record cold SST west of Canada are definitely not what we want. It’ll keep trying to build a trough there especially after Dec when climo Nina gets more hostile.

We’ll have to see if it can actually get there and stay there. Not sure if someone can bring up whether it’s been predicted recently and never got there.

Looks like temps dropped 3-5 degrees overnight when the wind went calm. Radiational cooling FTW.

If you’re expecting pretty much any snow in NYC this time of the year you’re likely to be disappointed. Still way too early to bank on any outcome. Hopefully it’s cold enough for some snow showers at the end down here. Any more is a big bonus.

The one on 2/1 was just fine for NYC. 17” in Central Park and rain in Boston. But generally yes you want to be further NE for best chances. Any blocking we can have would be great so the storm slows down.

Seems that when we can get a good snow event in December it’s a good predictor of a higher than average snow season. Last year we had the Dec snow event where most of us had 6”+ and we mostly ended above 40” for the winter. In 2010-11 we had the big 12/26/10 event and we ended up well above average. But in other winters where December has little, we usually end up below average. I’m sure Don/Bluewave etc can produce better stats on this but we want for at least some decent event in Dec. Nina winters also generally are front loaded.

Was a sloppy 3” here that turned to heavy rain and was gone by the end. Pretty infuriating. The writing was on the wall with the late NW trend but it looked like we could salvage 6-8” at least. That happened in the city where there were huge piles from all the sleet. That storm can rot forever.

We need all the help we can get from the Atlantic this year to hold the Pac jet off and force storms to track south of us. When the blocking breaks down it's likely endless cutters since the trough will keep trying to form out west with the -PNA.

Definitely was a nice February that year but disappointing March. 3/14/17 was 100 miles away from burying the whole area.

Not necessarily. Most of us had 40" or more snow last winter with it being above average temps. Average snow has been increasing with the temps. It definitely won't last forever but we're moving to a climate where we have 2-3 big storms give us snow vs numerous smaller storms.

03-04 I remember as being particularly frigid. The early Jan clipper in single digits that dropped 8” of powder, icebergs forming in the saltwater back bays, ice cutters on the Hudson etc.

Somewhat OT but for fans of Deadliest Catch, it seems when they have the awful, cold, stormy winters to deal with we bake. Hopefully for us there’s no ice and few storms there.

We need the Aleutian ridge to stick its head as far north as possible. That means cold air can at least get mixed into the pattern via cross polar flow. If that ridge is flat, maritime air floods the continent.

Glad I live a few miles away from the sound. It really can make a difference in Dec-for example Northport on the sound might get some slush but a few miles inland it can be a couple degrees colder and it accumulates better when the sound is still warm.

That’s a good thing so far and hopefully it gets more east based but the PDO is awful to put it mildly. We can still have Atlantic blocking which looks to set in late this month and hopefully lasts into Dec. So it’ll be dueling influences on how things turn out. Where the Aleutian ridge sets up is key too, hopefully we can get that set up steep and far north so it can surge cold air coming into Canada. If that ridge is flatter it just brings in Pacific air into the continent.

29 here this morning.

I thought last winter would be a disaster and it ended over 40” for most of us so when it comes to seasonal forecasting I generally just shrug at this point. Odds I would have to say do favor a lousy winter vs good. But hopefully we can be pleasantly surprised.

If the Nina strengthens in the east vs central Pacific it isn’t so bad. Central based Ninas are worse than east based. The PDO is horrible though, no sugar coating that. We need the help from the Atlantic for sure.

It’ll be interesting to see what made everything go nuts once the line went east of NYC. Small hail at my house, a few tornado warnings and damage reported on LI and obviously for you guys too. More instability up here? Tornado outbreaks on LI are unheard of.