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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Until something shows up within day 5 it’s tough to get excited about it given the chaotic Pacific patterns we’ve been having over the last 4-5 winters. If the Pacific ends up that much a disaster with the MJO getting stuck in 5-6 it could definitely still ruin it. I’m hopeful at this stage but nowhere near excited yet.
  2. jm1220
    12/26/10 was an amazing event in Long Beach. All out blizzard conditions most of that night. We probably ended with around 18”. We were in heavy snow for most of it but the best banding was to the west.
  3. jm1220
    The best chance we have is as that pattern starts to break down. It could be a cold/dry pattern for a while if we have a shredder -PNA/-NAO and whatever systems come across can’t consolidate. As the block relaxes somewhat is often when something can really amplify and come up the coast. But it can definitely produce if these long range ensembles happen.
  4. jm1220
    I’m hopeful but the chaotic and often contradictory global signals/patterns can result in more changes than what we usually see at day 8-10+. Hopefully we can get this blocked pattern to within day 5.
  5. jm1220
    Part of that was bad luck for NYC with banding that clocked N NJ and the Hudson Valley. But you can see via the 6-8” in Suffolk that it wasn’t the whole story. In Long Beach at the time we ended with a slushy inch or two, tons of white rain. 3/21/18 was way better but still huge difference between Long Beach and where I live now (10” vs 18+).
  6. jm1220
    Torrential rain here as well. Models hinted at these bands/showers popping up after the main show.
  7. jm1220
    It can’t not be Oswego’s turn eventually.
  8. jm1220
    But my hometown Long Beach NY can be awesome too in the rare times when it comes together like Boxing Day 12/26/10. That was ferocious. But it's way rarer than further east on LI or in MA. Any big snow Nor'easter is on a knife's edge for NYC area.
  9. jm1220
    Scituate, MA
  10. jm1220
    The place to chase for anything incredible Nor'easter for snow is Worcester. It somehow works out for them every time. Boston a close second. Boston is never in the "death band" but ends up with 2' plus anyway. Third after Boston is Islip Airport here on LI. Somehow that area gets in on any good one that hits LI. Plenty of hotels!
  11. jm1220
    Yes, there really were 6"/hr amounts from CT to central LI. 30-40" amounts in that swath where the band sat for a few hours, and pretty sure CT's all time highest storm total. Where I was closer to NYC (by 30 miles west), initial heavy precip was sleet/rain and that death band came together too late. There was 12-13" by the end for me when the snow finally took over and there was a good amount of mod/heavy snow west of that band from the upper low combining into that monster, 30"+ about 30 miles east of me.
  12. jm1220
    Don't get me started about that storm and dragging the thread off topic. Rain/sleet on the south shore wasted 10" at least from that storm and...
  13. jm1220
    Three times I've maybe seen 4"/hr in person are 12/30/00 (the one real thundersnow event I've been in) and 1/26/11 in Long Beach, and I think 4/2/07 in State College PA in the very tail end of a lake effect band. And those were insane. I can't imagine higher than that. The Sierra Nevadas I'm sure see some ridiculous snow rates and obviously in this event for Buffalo (and Watertown off Ontario). Was amazing to follow through on all the videos.
  14. jm1220
    Enjoy the deep snow cover until April and get some sleep haha.
  15. jm1220
    Awesome finale. Thanks for all the videos/photos etc for us to follow along with. Insanely impressive that you got your driveway shoveled/snowblown out lol. I'm gassed after one of our relatively lame 12 to 18"-ers down here. Do you have to clear your roof next?
  16. jm1220
    One degree colder than Buffalo where there's now 35"+ of snow at the airport (5" last hour).
  17. jm1220
    Down to 26.
  18. jm1220
    Gonna be another cold night. Already down to 29 here. Maybe my first low 20s tonight.
  19. jm1220
    The band is expected to drift south again later today so their snow isn’t done. It isn’t staying long since it will eventually die off as the wind becomes WNW but there could definitely be another 6” or so in the city. That would bring Buffalo up to 36-40” it looks like. So if that’s what a ‘miss’ counts for I’ll sign up in a second. The highest totals will probably be around 90” in the south suburbs. Unthinkable since NYC’s all time snowiest winter in 95-96 was 75”.
  20. jm1220
    Looks like a snow dinosaur is about to devour the car lol. Unbelievable.
  21. jm1220
    That band near Watertown-yikes. Not as much attention on that one as Buffalo but I’m sure there are 3-4 ft totals there too.
  22. jm1220
    It’s amazing if you’re in the 15 mile swath where the band is, but outside of it meh. The northern half of Buffalo looks like it sees half or less what was forecast because the band orientation is a few miles further south than forecast, and the usual spots south of the city get the best snow.
  23. jm1220
    When I was at Penn State there were brief lake effect bands that made it there a few times and they were quite an experience. Once right before Easter there was 5” of snow in 90 minutes. Very fluffy and was gone the next day. Much more often there are blinding snow squalls that last 5 minutes and coat the ground, but cause spin outs/accidents everywhere.
  24. jm1220
    41, nasty cold rain.
  25. jm1220
    Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t go full Nina roaring flat Pacific jet and MJO lock in Phase 6 like we saw as this Nina got underway 3 seasons ago. I’m not thrilled about the marine heatwave popping up again north of Australia and cool western Indian Ocean. That’s helped wreck our Pacific pattern in the past. As long as the Aleutian ridge can spike to near the Arctic Circle we’ll at least have cold air nearby.
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