jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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We’re not really concerned with the surface low tracks at this point. Pay a lot more attention to the mid level lows which still look to go well inland. They also have plenty of time before getting here to wrap in warm air since the storm is maturing. Models still show a very powerful SE jet at the mid levels which will warm those layers up quickly.
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It’s not news that NYC is generally a lousy place for snow. Central Park averages 30” annually (boosted considerably by how lucky we’ve been in the last decade) while the Catskills average 70+. Syracuse averages over 120”. I noticed @sferic moved to Cicero near Syracuse. Hate it that much, do what he/she did. We have boom and bust cycles lately where we have a monster 30” Feb 2021 or little/nothing.
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And this is a big storm even if for most of us it’ll be rain. That SE jet means business and the Euro had gusts over 70 mph near the coast. We might have moderate to major coastal flooding in spots too. That’ll be the main story in this sub forum.
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From cold to milder within the upcoming pattern. Usually big storms happen when these patterns shift.
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All you need to know about that NAM run. Is it overdone-maybe, but it doesn't matter that the sfc low track went SE. That SE jet at 850 is an inferno of mid level warmth coming in. It actually has a good chunk of the event in central PA as freezing rain verbatim and the good snow is in E OH/NW PA. For most of us it's heavy rain since that'll also transport lots of Atlantic moisture and there could be some very strong wind if the jet can mix down. 925mb winds are also upwards of 75kt.
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We’re probably beyond the point where it can make much of a difference snow wise near the coast. Maybe the high can hang on a little longer and make it a 1-2 hour period of good snow but we’d need a major change to get it to where it’s a snow event near the city. We’d need a couple hundred mile shift SE with all the major mid level features.
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Yep. The 700mb low is very wound up by the time it reaches us which means dry air has plenty of time to wrap around it. It'll be a mature cyclone and starting to occlude when we're in the thick of it. There'll definitely be heavy rain/precip for a while though on that 850mb/700mb SE jet off the water.
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Shadowing=downsloping that would weaken any precip. Basically you wouldn't want to go to the west slopes of a mountain/hill range in this given that the flow is coming out of the east.
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With this map at 850mb you aren't staying snow for very long in this subforum. It shows 70-80 knot ESE flow at that level. 700mb shows 60-70 knot SE winds. That warms mid levels in a hurry. I don't think it rains well inland, like near I-84 but prepare for a letdown if this happens and you're expecting much snow.
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I'm more interested with that in the metro area-this possible squall line and any coastal flooding. Multiple models are showing 60+mph with that.
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Those snow maps are likely showing a lot of sleet as snow until you're well north in New England or west in PA/NY. The mid level low tracks are horrible- winds at mid levels are out of the E/SE and strengthening. And the GFS usually doesn't see the mid level warming soon enough. NAM is better with that which we'll see a few runs from now (if the overall setup doesn't improve). I've gotten burned numerous times with seeing big snow totals on maps with bad mid level low tracks. It'll change over way sooner than it thinks now.
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NAM actually is very amped. Maybe not as super amped as it can be but it's amped enough to change everyone east of the Allegheny spine in PA to sleet and dry slot, as the deform axis/heavy snow is over OH.
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St Patrick’s Day 2007? I remember that well. VD 2007 was sleet and freezing rain on the coast. This won’t be a sleetfest on the coast like those. There’s a strong easterly fetch off the ocean and retreating high. You want the high stuck in place and northerly winds for CAD. Those aren’t what we want to keep cold air where we are. Models have us getting into the 40s during the storm.
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I’d call it a win here to see an hour of snow before rain. Although if it gets washed away anyway I don’t really care. The main story here will be coastal flooding as Rjay mentioned. Some of the back bays and usual spots could get dicey. Inland that can hold onto the cold air will see a couple hours of snow then a ton of sleet. Probably a few inches of mess by the end. You’ll really want to be far west in upstate NY or PA to get much snow.
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If the winds are coming from off the ocean there won’t be CAD at least where you and I are. Well inland sure. But I think the snow maps showing 6+ for N NJ and S NY are probably overdone. A lot would be sleet.
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If those mid level lows are still west of me and the high is still getting chased out, I couldn’t care less about minor changes. Might just make the rain a degree or two colder.
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I’m actually happy for the central PA crowd that should get a significant to major event here. They very rarely have gotten big snow events over the past 15-20 years other than a couple of exceptions like 3/14/17 and last Dec’s storm. And the ski resorts are begging for this.
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Yep. When you look at the KU book for what happened before big inland snowstorms that about sums it up. The flow turns easterly as the storm arrives which kills any chance at significant snow near the coast. Maybe at best something brief that gets washed away.
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Doesn’t really matter all that much for big snow accum. The surface low east of you can keep surface winds northerly but the mid levels would still be torched due to the mid level low bad tracks. And even out ahead of the surface low there looks to be prolonged easterly flow which would torch people near the coast anyway. You want to be in central PA, central/northern NY for this event. Anywhere west of those mid level lows really.
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Exactly. If we keep this cold pattern and +PNA there will be more chances in the future. As others pointed out and I said yesterday, if the mid level lows go west of you there won’t be much snow for you. Maybe sleet inland but it would be quick snow to rain on the coast if that. You want those tracking east of you if you’re hoping for snow. Any run that shows them west of you is bad news.
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We need more than small ticks. State College/I-99/Rt 220/I-81 north of Harrisburg should be good spots for this event. And it’s desperately needed for them. Ski resorts have gotten essentially zippo this winter.
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The saving grace might be a later phase or the southern stream being a little faster/getting ahead of the northern stream. That would enable it to dig a little further and get further east before making the left turn. But no there’s not a mechanism here like a block to stop it from making the sharp left turn. Doesn’t matter how cold it is out ahead of the storm. These inland tracks do make sense from how the setup is shown with the retreating high.
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The high is retreating east and we have a strong S/W diving in that wants to amp. There’s very little blocking to speak of which might keep something like that offshore, so it hugs the coast or tracks inland. Makes sense to me. It’s not what we want but it makes sense. If you look in K/U near misses, it seems like a common theme for big interior/Apps snowstorms. Given how far inland the 0z EPS look, I don’t see them being that wrong here. It might be a little too amped but we need a substantial shift east at this point for any hope near the city.
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Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is.
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