jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Verbatim that would be a huge solution especially from here south and would be plenty cold-it's not cut off from cold air to the north. But it's one possible outcome.
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Not to beat a dead horse but we missed 12”+ in 3/2018 three times by tiny margins. 3/20/18 it was a few miles NE of us. The 3/13 storm would’ve been if it tracked 75 miles further west and 3/7 had the CCB blossomed 50 miles further east. But March didn’t save that winter because we had a good early winter.
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Until we’re within 48 hrs of anything this winter I’m not excited about it. Not saying this upcoming pattern doesn’t have potential, but there’s also the high potential of something ruining it. Can’t think of any time where a total crap winter was saved by a March blizzard.
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Yup. Down to parking lot dirt piles.
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The Fri-Sat storm is done for 80-90% of us. The mid month hopefully pattern improvement is too far away to make any guesses about storms.
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The RNA triggers the SE ridge response and the storms try to cut. And we have a near record RNA so the impact is worse. If not for the blocking this would cut through the Great Lakes and the whole NE would’ve been a washout.
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You’re probably right but there could be a lot of sleet. The south trend looks real at this point. I doubt it would be all rain anyway north of the Tappan Zee. Won’t help us down here, just makes our rain a little colder while Boston makes up and then some for their shafting on Tuesday. I still hate SWFEs and this winter is still a big fat F until/unless this pattern mid month produces.
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And on the flip side, FV3 was too cold lol.
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I couldn’t care less because this one has been a definite washout here for days but the NAM was definitely a little too warm on 2/28. Had it being almost all sleet where I am and it ended up all snow.
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Was just outside and was just mist here. Yep, lousy days ahead
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I’d have to look it up but I’d think one of the March 2018 storms would count. As for Fri PM/Sat, models say enjoy the rain for most and sleet along I-84. This winter if we get nothing else is still a huge F, but it was deep winter looking yesterday AM here. Definitely picturesque.
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We care at this point about the ingredients being in place-the decaying NAO block, exiting western trough, cold air supply etc rather than any individual storm track.
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KU (Kocin-Uccelini) is defined by the snow amounts over the number of people impacted. KU has a “near miss” section for storms that impacted inland areas but with a few tweaks would have been massive coastal impacts, like 3/14/17. Blizzard of 96 had 20”+ amounts for every major city except Boston with 18” and had a huge overall area with those amounts, so it’s rated a 5. A storm like 12/30/00 had major impacts in NYC but not many other heavily populated areas so I think that’s rated just a 1.
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The dry air initially killed it for Boston then it became too warm for snow when the precip did move in. They’ll likely make up for it in the Fri/Sat event. Central Park never really got down to freezing and also likely mixed with some sleet so part of the snow didn’t accumulate.
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We’re shut out in terms of snow south of I-84, that’ll be for the SWFE favored areas along I-90 but maybe we can get more sleet if the south trend continues. We’re also not getting a real front end burst since the wave tries to amplify so far west of us. Models mostly time the main precip for when it’s already too warm here.
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GFS is a 4-5 hour pounding of sleet for NYC/LI and maybe some good snow well north. Has the warm layer way high, around 700mb actually.
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At least here that would definitely be a couple hours of snow/sleet before cold rain. Unfortunately the thrust of the WAA is largely west of here so the front end thump part would go through upstate NY, and by the time substantial precip gets here it would be too warm. We’ll see if we can get a last minute nudge south but SWFEs almost always go the other direction. We probably just had our one good one for the season.
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It can definitely snow here if we get into a good pattern that can produce storms on a good track and we have cold air (even March standard) in place. We don’t have to look back far to see some prolific ones.
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Some mangled flakes again with the light rain/mist. Temp 37. Snow melting pretty fast, off the trees etc.
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Whitestone came in at 3.2” so it seems right.
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I wonder what the melted amount is from the snow. @NorthShoreWx usually does it for Smithtown. This snow is very wet so I’m thinking at least 0.6” liquid fell to make the about 5” of snow.
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I remember 2/10/10 taking forever to switch over from sleet to snow in Long Beach which held accums down. 2/8/13 was another storm which had sleet linger on forever etc. It’s just awful growing up a snow weenie in Long Beach. And Winter 2014-15 and the massive Jan 2016 blizzard where it was actually good on the south shore I missed living in TX. So I earned my almost 5” of paste this morning haha.
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There was also sleet mixed in for a while for Staten Island and Brooklyn especially which probably reached JFK at times which also hurt the totals there. Over the Throgs Neck was the dividing line.
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I was worried about that big N to S shore split for a couple days. Models were insisting on 35-36 temps and onshore wind but 32-33 (ended up actually being colder here) IMBY and for northern NYC. Makes perfect sense that was the outcome. The LB boardwalk cams overnight were just wet and my mom said this morning there was a little slush on the car and lawn, nothing near any pavement. Long Beach might not even be at 1” for the winter yet.
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You’re probably thinking of 2/13/14 which I remember very well and is still infuriating to this day lol. In all there was 6-7” in Long Beach but 12-13” literally 4-5 miles north because it warmed up just enough to change it to heavy rain on the barrier islands in the heaviest precip period. The changeover line stopped dead right near Merrick Rd.
