jm1220

Like I said this morning-it flops around more than a freshly caught fluke. But the trend to leave the energy behind in the SW is real and it'll have to make up for it somewhere else like with a better northern stream. It's a shame but this is still salvageable for most of us.

Boxing Day 2010. NOT saying that will happen here.

There really was interference with convection in that storm so it can definitely happen. But the upper air development was good enough to compensate for many of us to get 6-9” from NYC east and in CT/MA up to 13”. This will have WAY more moisture to work with.

It’s why I cringed when yesterday we were seeing big solutions and knew we still had 84-96 hours left then. We’re still at lousy end of NAM run range and not even within the 3k, WRF, NMM etc

SNE Mets are pretty insistent that the snow will end up further west than modeled due to the moist inflow and evolution so that might be a weenie to hang your hat on. There usually is a weenie band on the western end of these that brings surprise high totals. Who knows how that will happen here but to keep in mind.

Yeah more than you might think. 1/27/15, 3/13/18 off top of my head.

The risk with this becoming northern stream dominated is how far offshore the low can escape before it gets captured and hooked north. That’s where you really do have the risk for it becoming another Juno 2015. The best bet for us (outside eastern Suffolk who should get slammed either way) is for the southern stream to still be involved.

No, I don’t have the subscription. I think that’s paywalled.

If it's doable for you I'd definitely head out there. Montauk is nice this time of year.

If the northern stream really does get more amplified and the PNA ridge more steep, it might still amp our storm enough to come closer to the coast and bomb out without the help from the southern stream. But to me that's a longer shot than with the southern stream phasing in early. The PNA ridge is in a pretty good place for us. I'd actually be surprised to see an OTS solution or graze with the ridge axis over Idaho.

Pros said time and again this is a fickle setup and we're threading a needle, don't get hyped up. I said coming into this season I wouldn't bite on anything unless we're within 72hrs. This pattern is serviceable for a good NYC snow storm but as Don pointed out, it's not classic by any means. So we're seeing the pattern reflect the outcome possibly. This winter, take whatever you can get from a snow event and run with it. My average is probably ~32-33"/winter and I'm at less than 1/3 that total with Jan almost over.

East of Riverhead is good for 15"+ likely. I'm modestly optimistic NYC makes it to warning level. There's usually a westernmost band in these that can make for surprise high amounts. I'd only really worry at this point if you were hyped on sky high amounts west of Riverhead or if you're well NW of the city, like west of I-287. I'd be more than happy with a 6-10" type event this winter where other than one lucky event we've gotten diddly.

10:1 ratio Euro map.

If the N stream can become more amplified and dive in faster, it might cancel this out to some extent. I agree the best outcome is for that southern energy to phase, but there might be an escape hatch with the better northern stream. The southern energy trailing behind isn't great but it could still be salvageable.

If you're convinced it's over please stop posting in this thread. If you want to whine/scream go to the banter thread if it's not too ridiculous. The whining posts will get deleted.

N stream looks better and might help save the day. Please let the run play out and check yourself out if you're on the "storm cancel" train. Those doors have closed and it's on the express out of the station lol.

Happens pretty often with ocean systems like these actually.

If expectations are for amounts similar to what we had for earlier this month's storm, sure. That's about what I'd predict for us now. Of course if we get the better phase and shift NW at the end it could be significantly more. But Euro/NAM have a big asterisk for now given all the other guidance.

GGEM was a step down from 0z but not a disaster I'd say from the city east. Looks like 3" in Central Park, 5-6" where I am to 8-10" over the forks using the 10-1 map. Even some minor snow NW of the city. UKMET while still lousy was much better at 12z than last night. Accumulating snow gets into the city, about 5" for me, amounts reach 12" for the forks. These actually match the GFS output pretty well. Definitely plausible if we delay the phase/keep the trough progressive and don't close off. But 50 mile adjustment NW from these would still be a very nice event for many of us and that's also definitely possible.

This has always been described as a thread the needle system. We don’t have much help from the Atlantic side. We’re relying on the departing Canada high and Atlantic ridge really as a quasi-block. Bluewave described this well. We just have to hope the models are underselling the speed of the southern stream because that phase is the ballgame for 90% of us. And unfortunately the Euro’s been slowing that down over the last few runs too. It’s found ways to still bury us with late shifts but we need that trend to stop/reverse.

There's time for recovery later today/tonight/tomorrow but have to admit GFS/CMC aren't what we wanted at 12z. Progressive late/delayed phase will likely be a meh outcome for those of us west of Riverhead or New Haven CT.

Verbatim the GFS starts ramping amounts up east of me from where it's like 4-5" in MBY to 8-10" over the forks. I think the forks are in for at least a very solid event. Me hopefully a decent event near the Nassau border and west of NYC sweating these changes. But it's annoying how it keeps leaving the energy behind and delaying the phase. Hard to see how it can end well for most of us if that happens. Maybe it's a bias at play but the Euro/NAM also notoriously overamp these. It's all about how fast and fully the streams phase. Delayed/late phase and we're dealing with what I described.

Weird outcome or not I wouldn’t jump on the Euro/Nam solutions until the GFS shifts west. Just way too risky. I don’t like how it leaves the energy behind out west. We have to make up serious ground from the northern stream because of that and by the time it would happen it would probably be too late and be a benefit for E MA instead. It’s not quite put up or shut up time but by tonight we’d be getting to that point. Time for the east models to start shifting west/amped if we really want to bite.

This won't be a situation where the QPF is overdone. The moisture coming into this storm will be absurd if the capture/partial stall really does happen. I definitely see 30" happening somewhere in a scenario like that. Of course if it's progressive and doesn't happen that'll be overstated.

Can't trust either the RGEM or NAM yet. Looking forward to hopefully an improvement on the GFS. Doesn't have to show a bomb quite yet but definitely want an improvement.