jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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We need more than small ticks. State College/I-99/Rt 220/I-81 north of Harrisburg should be good spots for this event. And it’s desperately needed for them. Ski resorts have gotten essentially zippo this winter.
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The saving grace might be a later phase or the southern stream being a little faster/getting ahead of the northern stream. That would enable it to dig a little further and get further east before making the left turn. But no there’s not a mechanism here like a block to stop it from making the sharp left turn. Doesn’t matter how cold it is out ahead of the storm. These inland tracks do make sense from how the setup is shown with the retreating high.
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The high is retreating east and we have a strong S/W diving in that wants to amp. There’s very little blocking to speak of which might keep something like that offshore, so it hugs the coast or tracks inland. Makes sense to me. It’s not what we want but it makes sense. If you look in K/U near misses, it seems like a common theme for big interior/Apps snowstorms. Given how far inland the 0z EPS look, I don’t see them being that wrong here. It might be a little too amped but we need a substantial shift east at this point for any hope near the city.
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Pretty straightforward for us actually. This strongly favors a rain event for people near the coast and a mix or mix to rain inland. We need for the Op runs to be a huge error at this point or a major trend east starting today. It’s unfortunate but it’s what it is.
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I haven’t looked where the mid level lows are tracking and it’s too early for specifics, but if the clown maps show big amounts and those lows track west of you, you know it’s almost certainly way overdone and sleet will cut the totals down.
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For sleet you want to track the 850/700 lows. If those go NW of you you know there will be a big mid level warm surge and then dryslot. So well inland it may not get above freezing at the surface but the warm mid levels will still turn it to sleet for a good chunk of the storm.
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There could be 50 feet of snowpack. If the upper air pattern supports the low going west of you that’s what will happen.
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Yep that doesn’t help either. The high sliding east is a setup for an inland snowstorm. It would cause the winds to be easterly near the coast when the precip starts and would rapidly warm us up.
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There would probably be front end snow before a change to rain. I don’t buy that this cold an airmass is just shunted out. Models usually don’t see that this far ahead. But if we start an easterly 20-30mph wind any snow would be brief near the coast. We saw how fast the temps warmed this AM when winds turned onshore.
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If we keep the cold/+PNA pattern there will be other chances after this one. I wouldn’t get too bummed out.
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I could see there being front end snow at the onset for a few hours especially inland but tracks well inland like shown will switch everyone over to rain. Near the coast whatever would fall probably gets washed away.
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FOK went from 8 to 28 in one hour. Low was 2 there.
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Wind shifting to the south off the 40s ocean. Welcome to Long Island!! Upcoming arctic air masses will be longer lived I think (what a bummer that it might get interrupted by rain in the 40s for 12 hours on Sunday before crashing again).
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There isn’t much of a blocking pattern. There’s a pseudo -NAO upcoming but not enough to really shunt east a vigorous storm like this one. This looks like it wants to amp up fast and cut north. I don’t see much to really stop it. Also the ridge axis is a little too far west than what I’d want for an offshore tracking storm. Nothing to stop a frigid pattern from suddenly featuring a warm cutter or hugger that changes us over to rain when we lack the blocking. That said this is 5 days away and will change but I don’t see anything to stop it from being a lousy outcome either.
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Doesn't matter. We can definitely go from frigid to rain to frigid again. There's little confluence/blocking to keep the cold in place so it lifts out as the storm arrives.
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The ridge axis out west is also not in a great place for an offshore track right now. We'd like for it to be over Idaho or Montana not the west coast. Hopefully something can nudge it east.
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Our coldest air masses come down from due north as others noted. The strong NW winds also downslope somewhat which causes heating, and come from the modifying lakes.
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12 here.
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We could really use some confluence to force an offshore track. A vigorous trough like that will want to cut somewhere. The ridge out west nudging east would also help.
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Down to 13 here. I agree that this airmass isn’t all that impressive. Here and gone in a day. We probably have a few hours left for temps to go down before the airmass rushes out and we start rising again.
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We have a few days before we start needing to worry about track. The big signal for now is a storm, not much else specifically.
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Not to get into the weeds too much but it was a gut punch here with 3” washed away by the time the dry slot mercifully arrived and put an end to the pain. 12-18” was forecast a day before but the NW trend writing on the wall was there. Ensembles seem to be decently east of these tracks which is a bit reassuring at this stage. Very nice 500mb depiction so if that does pan out someone’ll get a big storm for sure. Hopefully it doesn’t amp like crazy.
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Still way too early to hone in on a track but the signal for a big storm is there. It would definitely be useful for some confluence/blocking to show up to force the track offshore. A 3/14/17 type hugger is definitely on the table without it or even an inland runner.
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Not where he lives. In N NJ it was a few inch event I think. These +PNA, +NAO patterns can be dry/cold/suppressed which wouldn't surprise me if happened again. Also a lot of wave interference with too many S/W ruining opportunities for amplification. It's too early to write off anything but I agree the best opportunity may be as we're transitioning back to a warmer pattern.
