jm1220

That’s absolutely embarrassing however this turns out. So glad the Nam is getting discontinued soon.

It kind of just gets left behind between the diving in northern stream and steep PNA ridge it looks like, like a cut off eddy in a stream. But hopefully it ends up participating more and adding to the storm.

Even if the Nam shows a bomb soon it still doesn’t mean much lol. It should be in a straitjacket. Would be nice to see that the trend toward more separation stopped and hopefully reverses.

SREFs should be pretty much disregarded at this point.

I can see how it gets there for sure but I’m hesitant due to all the disagreement. The Euro’s been nothing special this winter so far but it’s been better than the GFS. It’s still a fragile setup that can go to crap as we’re seeing on other guidance. But I really hope you’re right because the potential is through the roof (maybe up to the roof) if it does come together.

If the Euro fails this bad this close in it should just be tossed from there on. It’s bent a little to the other models but has shown at least a warning event for NYC for 6-7 runs straight. And the ensembles coming west again shows it really must be seeing something to give it a chance.

The NAM is absolutely schizophrenic as we've seen now so I'd give it little/zero weight at this point. Still waiting on the GFS/GGEM to REALLY hopefully come west to give the Euro support.

I do think the well NW areas need a lot of help here and are on life support with this one but it hasn't been a surprise given the trends over the last day or so. I'd put the "there's still a decent shot" line at I-287/87 and then along I-84 east of there. By decent I mean a warning level event. There could still be 2-4" or something like that well NW.

The Kuchera ratios aren't happening except for maybe well inland. That's showing maybe 15-1 ratios for the coast. MAYBE we can do 12-1 here. The winds are going to break the dendrites apart. That said the Euro run was very encouraging that at least this isn't dead. And the other models really aren't far off from something a lot better. We just need the upper lows to close off 6 hrs or so sooner. And we need some kind of help from the southern stream. Upton is loltastic with the snow ranges from nothing to 21" for me. But I guess that really is the 10 and 90% threshold at this point.

18z RGEM looks about the same to me, maybe a small bit SE.

If this really becomes a suppressed garbage storm again like the one we recently missed that hit SE VA/Delmarva like the NAM has it this run, I'll just crack up. That would make this winter rival 11-12. 01-02, 19-20 level of fail, despite the one lucky storm we had early this month. And I'll be on the 'warm us up and just get this god awful thing over with' train.

Like I said this morning-it flops around more than a freshly caught fluke. But the trend to leave the energy behind in the SW is real and it'll have to make up for it somewhere else like with a better northern stream. It's a shame but this is still salvageable for most of us.

Boxing Day 2010. NOT saying that will happen here.

There really was interference with convection in that storm so it can definitely happen. But the upper air development was good enough to compensate for many of us to get 6-9” from NYC east and in CT/MA up to 13”. This will have WAY more moisture to work with.

It’s why I cringed when yesterday we were seeing big solutions and knew we still had 84-96 hours left then. We’re still at lousy end of NAM run range and not even within the 3k, WRF, NMM etc

SNE Mets are pretty insistent that the snow will end up further west than modeled due to the moist inflow and evolution so that might be a weenie to hang your hat on. There usually is a weenie band on the western end of these that brings surprise high totals. Who knows how that will happen here but to keep in mind.

Yeah more than you might think. 1/27/15, 3/13/18 off top of my head.

The risk with this becoming northern stream dominated is how far offshore the low can escape before it gets captured and hooked north. That’s where you really do have the risk for it becoming another Juno 2015. The best bet for us (outside eastern Suffolk who should get slammed either way) is for the southern stream to still be involved.

No, I don’t have the subscription. I think that’s paywalled.

If it's doable for you I'd definitely head out there. Montauk is nice this time of year.

If the northern stream really does get more amplified and the PNA ridge more steep, it might still amp our storm enough to come closer to the coast and bomb out without the help from the southern stream. But to me that's a longer shot than with the southern stream phasing in early. The PNA ridge is in a pretty good place for us. I'd actually be surprised to see an OTS solution or graze with the ridge axis over Idaho.

Pros said time and again this is a fickle setup and we're threading a needle, don't get hyped up. I said coming into this season I wouldn't bite on anything unless we're within 72hrs. This pattern is serviceable for a good NYC snow storm but as Don pointed out, it's not classic by any means. So we're seeing the pattern reflect the outcome possibly. This winter, take whatever you can get from a snow event and run with it. My average is probably ~32-33"/winter and I'm at less than 1/3 that total with Jan almost over.

East of Riverhead is good for 15"+ likely. I'm modestly optimistic NYC makes it to warning level. There's usually a westernmost band in these that can make for surprise high amounts. I'd only really worry at this point if you were hyped on sky high amounts west of Riverhead or if you're well NW of the city, like west of I-287. I'd be more than happy with a 6-10" type event this winter where other than one lucky event we've gotten diddly.

10:1 ratio Euro map.

If the N stream can become more amplified and dive in faster, it might cancel this out to some extent. I agree the best outcome is for that southern energy to phase, but there might be an escape hatch with the better northern stream. The southern energy trailing behind isn't great but it could still be salvageable.