jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Those would be +AO. For negative you’d want ridging near the pole. GEFS has the -NAO but east based and not too useful for us.
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Down here in Long Beach, it should rock for a few hours in the early morning. Should be some really nice waves and nasty high tide tomorrow AM. The bay side bulkheads are mostly done but I'm sure the usual spots will flood.
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Poor Nashville, looks like they got shafted to an extent. Euro, etc were too cold and they wasted a lot of the storm as mixed rain/snow. If it was a few degrees colder they'd easily have 6+.
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The 2/13/14 storm is the 2nd most infuriating winter storm for me. 7-ish sloppy inches in Long Beach where I lived at the time, 13” north of Sunrise Highway. The meat of the storm came in, insanely heavy snow for about an hour, then the rain snow line set up just north of the bay for hours while it kept dumping over NYC and north of Sunrise Highway, maybe even Merrick Road. That really sucked. Feb 2011 was another situation where the North Shore held onto a tremendous snowpack while a few degrees here and there chopped Long Beach’s snowpack down big time. The 10-11 final snow amounts weren’t too dissimilar in the NYC metro area but there was the Feb 1-2 storm and one other that had a coastal front which spiked the south shore up but didn’t make it to the north shore. North Shore might’ve made it to 33 briefly, I hit 40 in Long Beach and with the humid air/rain, destroyed the snowpack. Long Beach is a great place for many reasons, snow is NOT one of them. Except for on 1/25/16, 30” there and I was living in Texas. My first of all time most infuriating winter storm.
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1993-94 was a good to very good winter here but I would’ve been infuriated at those warmups and how much better the winter was snow wise just north of here. I didn’t really get into weather until the 95-96 winter which will probably be the most epic of my life if I stay here in the NYC area.
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The northern stream screwed it for us. It’s diving down west of our storm and amping the flow way too much. It’s essentially being hooked due north by the northern stream diving in.
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Thing is it’s continued trending west to where now most of upstate NY and PA are also shafted by the dry slot and mid level warmth. Essentially you have to be all the way west to I-77 in PA to have an all snow event and not worry about the dry slot. A couple of days ago it looked like it was good to I-81. Apps runners are rare but it looks like this one’ll do it.
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Good luck with this storm out there. Hopefully sleet/ice don’t cut into it too much. Lots of sleetfests when I went to PSU.
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HRRR isn’t in its optimal range yet. I wouldn’t pay much attention to it until the event’s almost here.
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Still only 17 here in Long Beach. Low was 10-11.
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I stand corrected, Buffalo even gets screwed on this NAM run. If I was still at PSU, I’d be seriously pissed right now. For us, our fate’s been sealed for a while. Wind and flooding will be a significant concern.
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It’s essentially becoming a cutter. But from that longitude it’s crazy. Storms that pass through S AL/GA almost always become offshore bombs for us or coastal huggers, not hard left to where the NAM takes it. When has there been a storm that gave Charlotte an ice storm, Asheville big snow that then buried Buffalo to Cleveland?
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Where those 850mb winds suddenly die down in W PA and NY near BUF/ROC/ERI will get slammed with heavy snow as a result of that. All that fast easterly flow will rise straight up where that sudden die off happens.
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Even central PA on most models has a big chunk of the storm as sleet or ZR now. That warm mid level SE flow is no joke and it seems to really show up the closer in you get on the models. Maybe the occlusion starts helping places N of I-84 but it looks dicey.
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Couldn’t really care less what Accuweather says here. If they’re saying 3-6” for NYC in this, they’re a joke. Maybe 3-6 mangled flakes at the start.
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If the 850 and 700mb lows stay wrapped up and west of us, there’s little chance of any more than very brief snow at the start in the city that’s quickly gone/over to heavy rain. The surface low track isn’t too relevant for us. The flow is from the E/SE aloft and at the surface which warms us up fast.
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GFS and NAM both bring 70mph gusts to the coast. Not sure how those do in terms of overestimating wind speeds. All models have a very impressive mid level jet at 850-925mb that can do some damage if they mix down.
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It’s probably overdone but the wind threat only seems to be increasing over time. 70mph gusts would be quite damaging especially since they’re coming from an onshore direction and would pile in water.
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Geez, 80mph gusts into NYC?
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I’d hoist high wind watches for LI/NYC for Monday if I was Upton. It’s becoming pretty clear this is a threat. Coastal flood watches as well.
