
jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I don't. It just really sucks still that I missed it and I shall never again. I left LB to move to Austin 6 days before Juno 2015 hit and that wasn't bad here, probably a little better than this event. Leave it at that lol. Might have been Long Beach's all timer and my brother who was home then (now lives in West Palm Beach, FL and his weather concern tonight is falling iguanas lol, he also hates snow and winter weather) was gobsmacked by it. The photos from LB were unreal and I knew it had to be at least 24" and that was after some probably settled/melted. -
NYC got fringed today relatively so you sorta got your wish lol. But if it went how it “should” have went maybe the death band would have gone west of the city. Boston and SE MA were good to go for days with this one other than the lol GFS. NYC is the toughest city in the Northeast to forecast for by far with almost any coastal winter storm because of how many ways it can go wrong but right with a 50 mile shift. El Niño juiced Miller As will always bury DC but may fringe NYC and could like 2/6/10 get confluence crushed south by 30 miles. But Jan 2016’s El Niño monster is Central Park’s #1 because of a very late tick north (which I missed because I was living in TX at the time). Storms like today’s, 2/8/13, Juno 2015 NYC is on the SW end and can miss the action. But 1/4/18, Lindsey Storm 1969 and 12/30/00 it worked out amazingly. We don’t have a wheelhouse storm type like Boston or DC have. We pick and choose lol.
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It was me to a lesser extent today. Band started forming over me and that’s partly what buried Islip. I have 8” less than 10-15 miles NE of me.
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12-13” of snow where I am is not a fail by any means, and it looks like an all timer at Islip. Long Island had an awesome event. But have to wonder what would’ve been. The people who have to really complain are CT. Logan may have way jumped over Central Park because of the dumbbell!! (Who knows but something to think about)
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He was honking that the trend on the crazy 0z NAM (6z NAM was even crazier) probably wasn’t done as the 500 low closed further SW. 12z NAM and others began the double barrel/dumbbell and so we have what happened.
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Good thing the dumbbell double low happened in the end for you guys. If it didn’t Forky would’ve been right.
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
This was impressive but nothing like Jan 2018 in Long Beach. That was about 6 hours of complete awesomeness. About what I imagine it was like in Lindenhurst, Holbrook and Commack this morning lol. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Pretty sure there was more than 10” there. I’m not there now so can’t say but it should be evident tomorrow when I drive back. And I’ll have to make a detour through second jackpot zone in Lindenhurst/Babylon on the way lol. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Absolutely. Regardless of how it evolved this was an awesome event. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I had 20” from that one so at least a half foot less. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
A poster here measured 17.5” in Dix Hills a few pages back lol. @psv88in Commack also had 17.5. It’s why I didn’t attempt anything at a measurement here in Long Beach today because of the drifts. It seemed a little less to me than we had on 1/4/18 where we had 15”. That’s mainly what I went on lol. Half of outside of my house has little snow and the other half has 2-3 or so foot drifts. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
This probably would’ve been another Boxing Day 2010 type outcome without that convective way out to sea low (and it somewhat did-coastal Monmouth and Ocean did very well). So yeah someone should’ve taken my advice about dumping the ice, nitro, whatever to stop the convection lol. Forky wasn’t kidding when he said it should’ve kept trending west with the upper air evolution improving as it kept doing. The offshore low strung everything out. So maybe for me it’s a wash. The crazy banding went east of me with how it evolved today, it would’ve been over NJ with how it “should” have evolved. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I mean I don’t know for sure but I suspect it and models showed it. They had the big QPF max just east of NJ and before it could come into NYC the convective eastern low forced the Fujiwara movement. We had the insane NAM and UKMET runs with the one consolidated low that went away fast as the far eastern low took over. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
The radar off of DE/S NJ last night looked amazing. The coastal storm did get its act together but then it dumbbelled with the offshore low which shafted NYC up to most of CT. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Apparently the storm had to chase some convection. Who figured. NYC would have the 15-20” as well if the storm developed the way it should have. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
That Rt 111 band this morning looked fierce. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
They were in the weenie Rt 111 area band in the morning and caught the south shore enhancement later. Upton only 16” though, a bit of a surprise. Levittown 19.2”? WTF? -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Assuming 16” in Huntington Station, I’m at 25.5” for the season. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Tiny change and it would’ve been me with 20” in Long Beach-band started off over Nassau and inched east. I had good snow for about a half hour from it. Boom and bust is how these storms work. Wish I could’ve been here for Jan 2016 (was living in TX at the time and didn’t fly up since it was supposed to be a Philly south event) where everyone on LI got the goods. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
JFK ended with 12.6”. Makes me fairly confident Long Beach also got over a foot from this. Dix Hills-17.5”, nice. With Commack 17.5” as well, pretty sure my place in Huntington Station got 16-17”. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
It would’ve helped NYC and NJ most likely and the upper lows developing better would’ve pushed the heavy snow further west. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Yes they did-the convection really did mess the storm up somewhat. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Nice! Congrats. Very rare that your area does so well in these storms. -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Absolutely. And when does that area ever get near jackpot totals? I have no idea what I ended up with really in Long Beach due to all the drifting. I'm estimating 12-13" but it's really a guess. My place in Huntington Station was probably 16". Nice sunset! -
January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
jm1220 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah, the short range models especially did good picking up on that enhancement.