jm1220

And forget 24", in that Hamptons band is where someone will get 30" maybe.

My William Floyd Pkwy idea will end up a little east of that. But wow at that band, congrats!! Looks like there's another one trying to form around Robert Moses to Port Jeff. Islip may get 18" too by the end. There may be one more attempt starting at a heavy band where I am in Nassau. C'mon...

That stuff in W Suffolk actually looks quite nice. Not the insanity of what's happening near Westhampton but probably 1-2"/hr. It's probably still coming down in Long beach at 1"/hr and I'm out of any major banding.

Someone should've taken me up on the military planes full of ice cubes to stop the convection. Crazy how this is the 2nd coastal storm now to have convection rob it like this. Still very impressive.

Yep. It'll be fun when I get home.

Wow at the band around Riverhead and just SE. There'll be 20" easy in that area. I hopefully get to 15". The crazy band potential is over here IMO but enough meat left to go to add several or more inches still.

Probably about 10” here in Long Beach but hard to really tell. Coming down moderate.

If this keeps up until mid morning, Long Island will get buried. Holy.... Surprised at the lack of hardcore banding thus far but I shouldn't too loudly given how that usually goes for Nassau County. I'm sure that's coming in a few hours where people will rip at 3"/hr under said bands. Crazy how this has evolved over just the last 12 hours.

Oh man. Here we F-ing go.

Radar and nowcast time. See my Jaws music post in the obs thread.

Long Island/NYC-look south on the radar and cue Jaws music. Still solidly moderate here despite lousier radar echos.

Models seem insistent on pivoting whatever comes west of us through during the afternoon, so plenty plenty more ahead. Whatever gets that 500 low closed off and slowed down rocks for us.

A little concerned about the inevitable subsidence area from that. Paranoid-hopefully.

Long Beach-S+ !!

Looks like a fist pointed toward Smithtown/Huntington.

Salivating at the radar coming up from NJ. And looks like it has a couple pushes west into the city and a bit further.

About 2” here. Lots more blowing snow over the last 15-20 min.

Heavy snow here in Long Beach. Picked up in the last few minutes. Let’s go!!

I’ll say that if the 40-50+ mph winds don’t happen tomorrow or in the meat if the storm then ratios might work out. Lift looks good in the temp layer (-12 to -18C) for a while for most of us where dendrites would form. But the 970 or under MB low expected will generate much stronger winds by the morning and would ruin it by breaking the flakes up. Ratios are about the temp where the flakes are made in the cloud and those flakes making it to the ground. I’ve been in 10 degrees before in a bunch of 10-1 ratio at best sand flakes because of poor growth. Not saying it’ll happen here but you can’t just take it’ll be cold and it’s snowing for big ratios.

Long Island-Incoming. Interested to see where this westernmost band shaping up over SE NJ ends up. Could be over the city by the looks of it.

Can he pilot about 1000 military planes to about 200 miles east of Charleston and dump about a billion ice cubes in the water so the convection would stop there? Please and thanks. In all seriousness it’s nowcast time and we just have to see how it evolves.

No but people shouldn’t think there will be 18” on 1” liquid either.

That’s what we don’t want. We want that convection to be weaker. That might be the mechanism to string out the low and drag it east. But the short range models are in good shape so hopefully not.

Incoming for the city east-first heavy band coming in from Monmouth. Also have an inch or so here in Long Beach.

Right here. For the 1000th time the Kuchera amounts aren’t happening. Those seem to assume like 16-1 ratios and that won’t happen in the strong winds we have in the meat of the storm and especially tomorrow. 12-1 sure so you can increase the 10-1 map somewhat but not too much. It would still be a great event though regardless.