jm1220

Maybe. Hopefully we can get this tucked a little further. Lots of possibilities still. A GFS dud can’t be written off either given the number of EPS members fairly similar.

Based on the 700mb features it makes sense to me where the heavy snow bands would be located at least. It would start over central to eastern Suffolk and then obliterate their way up into E CT into MA. Good snow would make it back to NYC but not the death band stuff. It looks like Juno 2015 pretty much. 1/4/18 had a similar track/upper air features and may have a similar evolution in the end. BTW, don't look at the 3k NAM. Total dud pretty much. Incredible how fickle this all is. Fingers crossed that these tucked in, wrapped up models win out.

The death 3-5"/hr band on that would likely be around the William Floyd Parkway. It's usually a little west of where that crazy frontogenesis line is. For the city I'd want that about 50 mi west of there. Also that'd be a tremendous moist feed. 90+kt S and E winds coming in from off the ocean at this level. That would certainly be a burial where that band sets up.

Looks like a nice improvement from 12z. If we can just keep that low west of the B/M a bit as it bombs out.

In any situation when I see a 500mb chart like that I'd think 90% of us are about to be buried. Nice backing of the flow already as trough is about to go negative.

Where you are, definitely. 12"+ is probably a lock and likely 15"+.

It doesn’t “push it away” but if it gets out of hand it flattens the heights out ahead of it somewhat which we don’t want. And also…. It’s the Nam.

The bickering is so ridiculous. Take it to PM or banter or better yet nowhere and grow the F up. In the meantime when I see those posts they’re getting deleted.

Yep, crazy the spread in EPS outcomes this close in. A few horrible GFS like ones there but hopefully it’s just the model trying to get a clue given the dynamic setup. I tend to think we’re okay east of the city and golden for places like the Forks but plenty of watching left.

I think it likes this mesolow/convective low idea and it’s struggling where to put the main low. If it consolidates on those western lows earlier we’re in a better place.

I said all along with this keep expectations in check but there’s big upside potential. Non weenies here said the same. I’ll gladly take the about 10” it gives me and run. But there’s always a sense of missing out watching Boston get twice if not more so hopefully the minor changes happen to share more wealth. If I was well NW I wouldn’t have gotten sucked in. There were only a couple really nuts Euro runs that brought heavy snow that far. Besides that it’s an evolution that isn’t favorable there.

That would give a new meaning to the Coney Island Cyclone.

If you compare this 12z to 0z last night (not 6z) it's overall a little better. So it improved its way even beyond 0z after the lousy 6z. It'll be interesting to see EPS as well and how many tucked in monsters we have.

Possibly. Models today seem to be developing a meso low/convective-based low over the Gulf Stream as the coastal low gets going. The upper air dynamics eventually capture it all and consolidate it but it happens verbatim a little too late for us except for far eastern areas. And yes it can happen. It happened with our storm earlier this month but over time the coastal low became better defined and hopefully this one does too.

They don’t come out until 2pm.

I’m more glad that the east/sloppier trend on the Euro reversed. There’s still plenty of time for improvements. This definitely ain’t the final verdict here.

It just seemed like a bit of a sloppy evolution with multiple lows trying to consolidate when it was our turn at the table so to speak. Boston got the finished 7-course entree, we got the cooks trying to throw things on the plates.

Yes verrrrry close where you and I are. Would take tiny changes aloft and at the surface to add 10” to our totals. And yes oftentimes banding makes it west of modeled in these storms. If that low consolidated west on the Euro just a few hours sooner…. Wow.

Still a little sloppy as it comes by our latitude and doesn’t really consolidate. But holy Toledo for eastern New England when it finally does.

Flow into our area definitely improved, backed in from SSE. Have to think that results in an improvement here not just New England.

Sometimes models overadjust when they sense a change from new data. The southern stream DC to ACY snow event this winter overadjusted on models when they saw suddenly it would be much further north. We were supposed to get 3-5" on some models in NYC but it ended up tons of virga.

Sure we have. I remember expecting a minor to moderate event on 1/3/18 because the system was riding too far east. Last minute west trend for the next day got me up to 14-15". 1/272015 had the epic Euro vs world battle until the end. Even before 1/25/16 the snow was supposed to stay south of Philly mostly and then blasted north at the very end. These are much different systems but there's often tons of volatility with these to the end. That said, the trend toward broadening the trough and delaying the consolidation of the different lows/features isn't what we want. We still have time for it to reverse enough to make a difference at least near the city. Hopefully it hits the Atlantic rocket fuel and takes off right away.

If you insist.

Starting to have that Jan 2015 feel to it where we're waiting here for the low to bomb and start tracking north and Boston is licking its chops. We're getting back to "it's salvageable" with these east ticks and broader trough coming in. We need the capture/phase as soon as possible. Always a nailbiter on the SW side of these.

UKMET went east a good amount. Verbatim warning level would be E Suffolk only. What a laughable model, like the NAM. Absurd.