jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Total steam bath today with 75-77 dew points.
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Seeing a LOW of 101 is just…. wow.
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The waters to our south are all well above average, and constant southerly/onshore flow helps warm the waters up fast. Jones Beach water temp has been 77-79 degrees the past two days. That’s insane-the average highest water temp for the year is a month from now and 73-74. July is usually around 70.
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Up to 93.
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What a joke.
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Weak sauce seabreeze today. Numerous S Nassau/Suffolk stations still in the low 90s.
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Sea breeze front near Sunrise Highway, crawling north. Some stations near the front hit 90.
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As long as winds stay W or NW humidity shouldn’t be too big a deal but temps will be hotter on that wind direction so it probably all evens out. We wont have a problem hitting 90 today.
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Feels way better outside than it’s been. Enjoying it when I can.
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Keep watering!
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If any model did well RGEM probably won but I chalk that to a broken clock being right once. It was clearly a nowcast setup and what we needed didn’t happen for 90% of us. Cheers to those who did get deluged on the east end.
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And the 7-8 runs after that blasted us. Up to 21z I believe it was still giving 3-5” of rain almost island wide.
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Successful would’ve been something that could dent our drought, and for 90% of us east of the city we didn’t come close to that.
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90-95% of the island had under an inch. I still consider this overall a fail. Models generally had widespread much higher amounts.
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Keep watering!
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I was out in that area yesterday. Would never expect they’d be the area to get nailed on LI. Looks like ISP ended with 0.49”. I probably ended with something similar-just two moderate showers early and the period of moderate rain around 11pm.
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Said now many times-set expectations low to rock bottom on any interesting LI weather in the summer.
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And what a joke performance by the HRRR. Disaster by that model but others had widespread 1-3” here. That’ll be a total fail. Drought continues. Lawns are parched/burnt for many and most near the south shore/east end now.
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Raining moderately. It’ll rinse my car off, that’s about it. Maybe it adds up to 0.2” in the end?
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Whatever this stuff is looks like it’s all LI’s getting. Maybe east of the William Floyd gets clipped by these T-storms. And my luck-the broken part of it looks headed for my backyard.
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HRRR has us getting 3-5”. Might be totally wrong, like I said it’ll be a nowcast situation. If this falling apart line is all there is and we don’t see more convection firing, we’ll know which was right. So far I had two moderate showers that maybe brought .05”.
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I would just watch the radar and see what happens. Obviously if HRRR is wrong right now it’s likely wrong 12 hours from now.
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HRRR blasts LI later tonight but it’s laughably wrong with what’s happening right now over NJ. I think anything we see or don’t east of the city is really a nowcast situation to see if this wave/convection forms.
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Storms seem to be making headway east over DE, hopefully that persists. There’s a shot here east of the city this time. But the storms probably wouldn’t be training over this area so we’d probably get 1-2” but it’s hugely welcome.
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If the trigger to make convection dies out so does the convection. The wave/low needs to happen to keep the hope alive east of the city. I hope for the NW crew it dies down but we could really use what’s over the Delmarva now to survive to this area. A few heavy showers won’t cut it.
