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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Started as about 3 snowflakes in Long Beach, now rain.
  2. jm1220
    I’d probably pick somewhere along the I-88 corridor, Cooperstown area maybe. They get some of everything-lake effect and can get slammed by synoptic storms. Also not too far from NYC.
  3. jm1220
    Still hopeful for a sloppy inch. I guess if any place on LI can end up with something it’ll be my area.
  4. jm1220
    Mostly yes. They have more cold air available and room to deal with weaker confluence before the storm is pushed east.
  5. jm1220
    Winds now are out of the NW. That’ll be good enough for inland/north folks but as soon as the winds switch to E or ENE, for the coast whatever cold/dry air benefit is gone.
  6. jm1220
    Boston the city is dealing with the same easterly wind problem we are. Waters there are a few degrees colder so they have some more wiggle room but if they’re 34-35 in snow, accums in the city will be much reduced. Once you’re in places 10 miles or so inland it’s probably the best spot to be in the whole storm.
  7. jm1220
    If it’s 36 with snow falling it probably wouldn’t accumulate at all. It would be hard enough at 33-34 unless it’s falling moderate to heavy. It being at night helps some but 36 is just white rain. People forget as well that the “10-1 snow map” just shows how much liquid falls as snow times 10. It doesn’t say anything about how much is on the ground. It could all be white rain, or 6-8:1 mashed potatoes. It’s why people should look at soundings vs the pretty maps.
  8. jm1220
    I’ll be thrilled when it’s finally tossed in the trash for the replacement, I think RRFS? In any case thankfully it’s being retired so we don’t waste anymore time on it.
  9. jm1220
    Because that area has been getting dumped with cold for the last 3-4 winters. It’s essentially a given. Amazing how that pattern persists even in this strong Nino.
  10. jm1220
    Stop following (not saying you but others) vendors who just want clicks and subscriptions.
  11. jm1220
    Yep exactly and thanks for your analysis. There are difficult to forecast setups we can experience here, to me this wasn’t really one of them and the outcome has been apparent for several plus days.
  12. jm1220
    On New Years Eve people were calling this out as a long shot and it would probably come north big time because of the lousy setup out west, or it could be weak and suppressed. A day or so later the bad initial conditions because of strong easterly flow and marginal airmass became apparent. Following the model shifts and especially lame snow maps made by vendors to drive subscriptions just leads to disappointment. Look at the big picture/pattern and what it will support and it gets you there 95% of the time. Eventually the models will get there. It’s going to rain a lot in Brooklyn and my backyard too, nothing we can do about it unless you want to drive north. And look at it this way, the snow up north won’t last more than a few days until the huge cutter takes it away. And there’ll be less flooding from it all melting.
  13. jm1220
    Yes. The NAM is a worthless model past 48hrs and many times even closer in.
  14. jm1220
    Really, this hasn’t been a very tough storm to forecast other than the R/S line going through where a lot of people live, but these are always near impossible to nail down exactly. It’s a classic 1990s type I-95 or just NW rain snow line storm. That’s been clear for 4-5 days. That’s exactly what this pattern and setup will give us.
  15. jm1220
    Well, that’s what we have to deal with very often living here. Nothing we can do about it. Like I said yesterday it won’t be much better IMBY and maybe no better. When you set expectations very low for this like I did it still sucks but worse than the alternative.
  16. jm1220
    If you’re over 33 in this storm you’re struggling to accumulate. If it’s really coming down hard it’ll wetbulb down to that temp unless like here there’s an easterly wind ruining it.
  17. jm1220
    Looks like garbage near/east of the city like the other runs.
  18. jm1220
    Yep we need the good rates to get us down to 32. 34-35 will just be white rain.
  19. jm1220
    Although @wdrag does give me hope there could be a surprise here. But definitely not banking on it. It could be easily the other direction-some slush to rain.
  20. jm1220
    My thought is I get 1-2”, outside shot at 3 if this CCB really happens. It’ll be better here than where you are, but if you really want to chase this I’d maybe head to the 495 corridor in MA. Take the ferry from Orient, really not that bad a ride.
  21. jm1220
    If the storm overall’s weaker it will probably be warmer. Easterly winds are warming up the surface from the city on E/S and heavier precip could help overcome the surface warmth but light precip wouldn’t do anything. And the lack of CCB behind the low means cold air won’t come back in with heavier snow. The CCB is a possibility if the mid level lows close off south of us but if not it’ll be minimal if any.
  22. jm1220
    Up near Ramsey where I-287 merges into I-87 will probably be fine. That area where the elevation lowers and I-87 turns east into the Tappan Zee might be the area where you start seeing under warning snow amounts.
  23. jm1220
    Last year before the March event that hit the Berkshires/VT/NH it had a crazy 2-3 runs that dropped over 12” in NYC. So yeah-drunk, high, whatever you want to call it.
  24. jm1220
    They're expecting the E winds to torch them the same as down here. Waters are a few degrees colder there so not as big an impact but something similar happened in the 2/1/21 storm. I'm sure Waltham only a few miles west of the city will be fine though.
  25. jm1220
    I doubt I get more than an inch or two since these CCB are often over modeled and we have to deal with the same lousy E flow coming into the storm. You want to see a closed 500 low southeast of you to know you’re in the game for one. But I’ll be thrilled to get a surprise.
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