jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I agree with this pretty much. It probably does make a “fair dice” come up little/no snow more often than 40 years ago due to the background warming, and certain other things like fewer/no minor clippers anymore that would be good for a few inches are head scratchers. The background “perma-Nina” because of the piping hot W Pacific is something else that needs more study. In general Niña isn’t a good state south of New England although down to Philly it isn’t a kiss of death and we can get it to work out like in 17-18 or 10-11. Last season was just a combo of the worst possible factors like the record -PNA. That shouldn’t mean record snow for LA but that’s how insanely negative it was. That will never be good for most of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
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Pretty but extra tropical looking storm, eaten away on the south side. Interesting to see the edge of the cirrus canopy from such a huge storm over my head.
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A few drops. On a better note winds are now NW which means this disgusting humidity is on its way out.
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At least the front should cool things down and end the ridiculous humidity.
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I'm a Giants fan. I'll leave it at that.
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For once I lucked out IMBY but it's generally the same garbage July pattern. Endless rain inland, high dewpoint swamp here. And I agree, this time of year it shouldn't be happening.
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Henri on the west side gave me on western LI 5" of rain and parts of NYC 7-8", but the winds were essentially just breezy. Nothing more than a windy rainy day, and the waves were impressive but I've seen a good bit worse from regular nor'easters. This will be much bigger in size but the east side like you said will have the wind/any surge issue.
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There’ll be huge waves this weekend with that track on the E Coast and expanding windfield/fetch. Franklin was more powerful but with a smaller size and curved more NE. That’s what I’m most concerned about where I am. There will probably be direct impacts in terms of rain and TS winds for Cape Cod and Downeast ME but the more serious impacts will be for Canada on the E side but it won’t be a strong hurricane by then. Might not even be a hurricane at all by the time it makes it there. It’s not a situation where a strong hurricane would make landfall there like last year. It’s more like a Henri without baroclinic support to speed it up and deliver energy.
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Up to around 2” here since yesterday.
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We can be far away from the center from here on N and still have significant impacts. That being said away from Cape Cod and Downeast Maine/Canada the most likely impacts will be huge waves that cause serious erosion from the growing wind field causing big time fetch. I doubt Lee strengthens much if at all from here because it still has an eroded/dry air type look and it’s about to enter cooler water caused by Franklin. When it does get up to this latitude it’s probably barely hanging on as a hurricane and transitioning to ET.
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Garden City/Stewart Manor area got crushed. Over 3” there.
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Radar estimating 1.8”. Was coming down like crazy.
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Absolutely pouring here.
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Storms firing now out to Rt 111. Hopefully they can keep firing east from the outflow boundary. Back here we had the one downpour and that was it. Some light rain from the other stuff over Nassau. At least I got something.
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Pouring here now.
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There’s an outflow boundary pushing east that’s firing storms behind it into Nassau now. We’ll see if it can make it over the border. Same here-Lloyd Harbor/Caumsett getting dumped on, nothing IMBY.
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Back to the July garbage pattern.
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85/77. Absolute sauna once again.
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Today felt like an absolute sauna. Disgusting.
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Yup, troughy onshore flow won’t do it for any heat waves around here. Idalia remnants a fly in that ointment.
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We had plenty of blocking last “winter”. The PNA/PDO were so insanely negative it didn’t matter. Nina shouldn’t mean snow/rain bonanzas in California.
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The difference here is that models seem to have this heat coming in on a W or NW wind which downslope heats us up vs the high humidity heat on S winds. Those are the heat waves that can get us over 95 even near the coast when the sea breeze is held back. It's late in the season but no reason we can't get over 95 when areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota etc were just well into the 90s to 100.
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Just about cleared out here.
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Heading towards the Gulf Half-a-canes we used to see before Michael, looks like dry air eroding the east side. It’s probably a 120mph storm at this point. Thankfully it’s hitting a sparsely populated area for the worst surge but the inland effects will be pretty serious with the winds.
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The water vapor loop doesn’t show any exceptionally dry air around and even if so, without shear to direct it into the core it would probably stay separated. It also makes sense that with air rising fast inside the hurricane it would sink/dry up away from it. The NW side looks “inhibited” because the outflow/ventilation channel is to its NE. It’s not a sign of shear knocking away at the storm.
