jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Down to 30 near the LIE/Northern State, 40 near the sound. A bit of influence from the waters still.
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27 here.
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We're too close to the sound this time of year on northerly winds. Unless it dies down we may drop another couple degrees. I'm at 38.
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Anyway, interesting Norlun feature again today, similar setup to our deluge a month ago but thankfully weaker. You can see the echos moving east from the NJ coast and westward from New England/Montauk to where they collide and enhance over W Suffolk. Of course in winter this will never work out.
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Maybe around Smithtown in the heavier echos there are flakes mixed in but where I am which is one of the favored spots on LI and higher elevation, haven’t seen any snow/sleet. If you were at 33 you probably did have flakes.
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Not seeing any snow here but it’s a 38F miserable light rain. If only a few degrees colder, there definitely would be flakes mixed in.
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If a strong upcoming Nino can’t change that, not sure what can.
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If it can happen here on the coast in November 2018 and Oct 2011 it can definitely happen in the mountains this year.
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That was 97-98 in a nutshell. Lots of offshore tracks but flooded in Pacific air.
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I think the Nina wasn’t able to couple and there was a hangover from the 94-95 Nino since the subtropical jet was so juiced (1/96 blizzard). It was also an East based Nina from what I know which is better for our winters. Last years Niña was a central based one which is usually much worse.
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Believe me, if I was here for the Jan 2016 epic storm, I would enjoyed it in that moment. I lived in TX at the time and came back in the Feb 2016 frigid cold wave and saw the last small piles of it. The day of the storm in Austin it was 78 and sunny.
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Feb 2021 was also a great snow cover month here. In mid Feb I had close to 18” on the ground after the Super Bowl storm. Would’ve loved to see the Feb 2011 snow cover where I live now.
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We’ve been due for a stretch of lousy winters since the bonanzas prior to 18-19. The late 90s were horrible, 80s into the 90s etc. No way NYC won’t have to pay for numerous 40”+ winters, and indices like the PDO inevitably flip back to unfavorable with the West getting the bonanzas. Hopefully this winter’s better but if not I don’t see it as our inevitable drop to Richmond/Norfolk type winters every year.
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They’re actually predicting below average snow in the Northeast?
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I’ll be more than happy with just one Nino winter storm bomb like Feb 1983, Jan 2016 or PDII in 2003. 2/5/10 would’ve been one for us too if the confluence was just a hair weaker.
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I guess one positive is that the W PAC isn’t boiling hot anymore so the MJO should be more favorable, but the warm water NW of Hawaii of course is another turd in the punch bowl. The waters off the SE US aren’t too warm so we shouldn’t see a raging SE ridge again, which is also a Nina not Nino trait, but like others said it’s hard to determine if the pattern drives the SSTA’s or the other way around.
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Been a mist storm for the last 2 hours.
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Models got the northern edge heavy band right. I have about 0.5”, as usual Suffolk County shaft area.
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Usually happens with these systems-there’s an initial overrunning batch on the north end where there’s a secondary max of heavy amounts. North of that’s the brick wall and north of Hartford probably gets zilch.
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I think we know the deal, where do the waves of heavy rain start getting eaten by confluence. In Boston it might not get any worse than partly cloudy this weekend. But since we’re in a strong Nino and we’re already seeing signs of strong blocking, could be a coming attraction for a few months from now.
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The NAM 3K is hourly on Pivotal within 60 hrs and also other hi-res models like the ARW, NSSL and FV3. Those are 48-60hr models. I’m not sure where you can find globals hourly output. I think Tropical Tidbits has hourly HRDPS which is the higher res RGEM.
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Looks a little wetter than 0z.
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Plenty more confluence-eaten waves of drizzle though!
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It’s good we’re seeing blocking but as we’re also seeing, it can be too much of a good thing. At least this upcoming storm is happening in October.
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The -PDO tempers my optimism for us, it means even though we have a strong Nino it will try to act like a Nina at times, but hopefully we can at least approach normal snow. We probably go above average temps which isn’t saying much, but Decembers in most Nino years particularly strong one’s torch. If we get one or two big events, I’ll be more than happy to settle on that. Hell I’ll be thrilled with any over 6” event.
