jm1220

If we get to 1/15 and there’s still no sign of a cold pattern change I’d start to worry then. Otherwise Nino December’s are usually lousy. It would be nice to have something in the bank this month but it’s not necessary for an above average snow winter. Look how Dec 2015 was and what we ended with.

AGW causes you to roll snake eyes more often but there are still plenty of possibilities for good winters. However the average probability of a rat all else equal definitely is going up. We have numerous factors on a yearly basis that are more impactful than that background signal. We were (hopefully still are) in a snowy Northeast period from 2000-2018, and eventually the pendulum will swing away. There’s been record cold in MT/WY/Northern Plains in recent winters so it can definitely still happen. Just remains to be seen if we’re back in a 1980s to mid 1990s lousy stretch. Eventually it’s bound to happen. Anyone knows Central Park long term isn’t getting away with over 30” snow averages and that’s even before AGW impacts.

+NAO is better?

Hopefully this winter there will be numerous spot on the money measurements from Smithtown and plenty of snow hikes. Need to preserve our >35” average since the late 1990s.

Was gorgeous up here if not mostly cloudy. I was outside in a T-shirt much of the afternoon.

Yes-I wonder if something could be causing the PV to locate over Siberia or if it’s just been bad luck. Later into Jan, we won’t need arctic cold for snow, just a good enough airmass not totally ruined by Pacific garbage and a good storm track. Once the waters cool down we have more leeway to work with near the city.

Win for the NAM for a change. Most models had 0.25 or so when NAM was wetter.

From Syracuse to Watertown on I-81 it’s essentially nothing, and even Watertown we’d consider to be a pretty small town. Syracuse proper is a better bet-not the most snow but still tons (they average 140”) as far as any of us are concerned plus being in an actual city/small metro with cheap living cost.

I’m sure most of that is from the bonanza period 2001-2018. We get more big Nor’easters (or did in that period) that drop more precip as snow with the favorable tracks. We’ll see if we’re in a new climate period now where the West/Plains/NNE are favored. Not to repeat everything Bluewave has been mentioning but we’ve entered a much more Nina-like state. Since we’re in a strong Nino now, hopefully it can suppress the SE ridge enough to allow for those big offshore Nor’easter tracks again for a while, along with the STJ to bring the storms.

We’re surrounded by warm waters here. Speaks for itself.

The original bomb cyclone (lol) didn’t make it west of I-95 that far but they made up for it in the Mar 2018 storms especially 3/7 when it was white rain on the south shore mostly and well over a foot in NJ. Everyone eventually cashed in. Hopefully we get the sustained cold because like you said we haven’t gotten out of those without a big snow event in the last 8 winters or so.

Any wind reports from the Sun night event? Rain underperformed but winds were gusting over 50mph on the south shore. Lots of branches down in my neighborhood too.

We're probably going to be on the more windy east side of the low but less rain. Big west trend with the low/rain today.

Good tradeoff. My brother/his fiance's on his way up here now from S FL. 81F and partly cloudy when he took off.

As long as we have this perma-Nina background state we'll struggle. Hopefully either the Nino can finally overpower it or we get lucky with blocking like Feb 2021.

That was an epic storm. Too bad it was so fast moving. 4-5 hour all out blizzard.

Wouldn’t surprise me if Tue PM becomes a regular cold/cool front without much rain. The trough is shearing out more and more which means less energy available to develop a consolidated storm and heavy precip.

If we get one big Nino fueled monster and nothing else this winter I’ll be more than happy. The opportunities will probably be there if we can ever get some cold to time with them.

It’ll be very interesting to see the studies/research on it but it’s been crazy to see this Nina-ish background state continue year after year and the cold dump into the Rockies/Plains. I’m sure they’d be fine with a warm winter stretch like we’ve been getting. In the Northwest and upper Plains it’s near record cold at the same time.

Just where it’s been going the last 4-5 years.

Our big Thanksgiving Eve storm on the GFS is turning into a sheared out mess with energy burying into the SW. I guess fewer flight delays that way.

12” of snow in Central NJ from one storm is still a ton. We’ve been spoiled since the early 2000s. I remember the late 90s were horrendous. Between April 1996 and 12/30/00 couldn’t get any event more than a few inches. Don’t want to disturb the hornet nest but we’re due for a down period again. Hopefully this winter can produce but the background Niña state and -PDO is always a concern.

Dropping quickly here, down to 34 already.

Seeing piles of snow on top of piles of debris in Long Beach after Sandy was quite surreal. And the house I was staying at had its power knocked out again from that freak snow too. The alternative though was the further west track that was predicted and very strong winds again (remember we were under a hurricane force wind warning, thankfully the offshore track kept that wind offshore).

Scraped off frost from my car for 2nd morning in a row. Heavy frost on the grass.