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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    It’s workable. Hope it persists and we don’t can kick.
  2. jm1220
    In the PA mountains 97-98 actually wasn’t a terrible season. There was a pretty sizable snowstorm near New Years and another in late Feb. If it could’ve been 4-5 degrees colder during those storms NYC would’ve had a nice winter. It’s just that we were annihilated in Pacific air that winter.
  3. jm1220
    Flooding was pretty serious out east-Mastic Beach, Quogue and Fire Island got it bad. Yep, very lucky the worst avoided high tide.
  4. jm1220
    We’re due for a depressing stretch. Even putting climate change aside which will make it worse, the tendency for more Nina stretches (barring that, the boiling W PAC isn’t going away which drives the Nina like patterns), -PDO cycle etc is unfavorable for us. We can pull rabbits out of a hat in -PDO/La Niña periods but generally they suck. Too soon to say we’re in the depressing new regime but the factors I mentioned would drive it.
  5. jm1220
    The place to be in PA for snow is the Laurel Highlands by far. They had locally 8” overnight from upslope/lake effect and get 150”+/year in the favored spots. There may be some places east of Erie that come close but even there I don’t think that much. Flip side is Bedford and Blair counties get downsloped all winter and have 1/4 or less seasonal average.
  6. jm1220
    If you mean the metro area there was 4-6” outside the city/south shore/north of I-78 on 2/28/23 but it was gone in a day. The UHI probably prevented much from accumulating since it was so marginal. On the Great South Bay maybe 30 minute drive south of me it was white rain. I had 5” of glue.
  7. jm1220
    2014-2015 I would rate as very good to excellent for Long Island but the best was NE of here. Got skunked narrowly a few times but it went to town for SNE.
  8. jm1220
    Yep, so I’m not that concerned with it coming late, I know that happens in El Niño. We already see in the big storms we have this month, if we can time some cold air with one or two of them we’ll be set. That end of Dec-Jan stretch in 2010-11 is probably once in a lifetime though. That was epic.
  9. jm1220
    I had 30” of snow in 2-3 weeks in Feb 2021. If I can arrange that again I’ll sign in a heartbeat. 12/26/10 to 1/27/11 was one month which was 4 feet in many areas.
  10. jm1220
    My “get worried” date is 1/15 since I know Ninos are back-loaded and we went from record warm Dec to record largest NYC snowstorm in Jan 2016, but we need some pretty major changes. Of course all we really need is a few days to line up with a major Nino juiced storm. And we don’t need Arctic cold in Jan/Feb but raging Pacific warmth will never work.
  11. jm1220
    Example 1000 for decent tracks not guaranteeing snow. Even 97-98 had some good snow events inland/elevated. Not saying again this is a repeat this winter but we really need to shuffle the deck to put us in the game, and even shuffling the deck will likely take a week when it happens.
  12. jm1220
    We really want some part of that PV into our hemisphere. We’re already down one strike with most of the real cold in Asia.
  13. jm1220
    Looked pretty bad in Mastic Beach, water still around this morning on streets.
  14. jm1220
    We were east of the low so generally had less rain. I had about 1.5” which I’m fine underperformed given the deluge last Sunday that flooded out Jericho Tpke for a whole day. A good amount but not severe tree damage in my area, so winds probably got over 50-55mph but not 70mph like some models had which as most pros pointed out was overdone. Also pretty severe beach erosion, thankfully high tide didn’t happen during the worst conditions and the lunar phase didn’t enhance the tides.
  15. jm1220
    Snowmelt from the mountains (where there’s also upslope heavy rain on S winds) is adding to the flooding downriver. Models pegged those mountains to get crushed. Yep, terrible situation there.
  16. jm1220
    In Long Beach the ocean came up to the boardwalk dunes. Looks like severe erosion. Would have been much worse if high tide was 5 hours earlier.
  17. jm1220
    Farmingdale gusted to 44 last hour. Branches were swaying in my backyard but not as bad as before. Cleared up fast however once rain ended.
  18. jm1220
    In 97-98 we had plenty of storms track SE of us and it was still rain because of the putrid airmass. It should improve as we head into Jan and I’m not saying this is 97-98 again but especially on the coast we’d like a colder airmass nearby to be wrapped into any storm. A good track doesn’t guarantee snow near/east of the city.
  19. jm1220
    Yep, wind definitely kicked up again here. Mod-heavy rain.
  20. jm1220
    Had a chance to get a better look around, more damage than I thought. Some big limbs and a few trees down, lots of debris/blown around decorations etc. Not Isaias in 2020 bad but it was a nasty one. And now the flooding is getting bad on the S Shore with high tide.
  21. jm1220
    Looks like NYC East about to get soaked in about an hour from this southern low extension. Maybe another burst of winds too.
  22. jm1220
    Flooding is gonna be bad in a couple hours even though worst impacts aren’t timed with high tide.
  23. jm1220
    Maybe I spoke too soon then, haven’t gotten out beyond my immediate neighborhood.
  24. jm1220
    Thunder here. Thankfully looks like it was a pretty modest event here. Not noticing many branches down, never lost power and I have only about 1.3” so far.
  25. jm1220
    If the low's in the low 980s and goes through eastern PA, we're probably in for it from the city east in terms of wind. There'll be less rain but the ground is already soaked and there have already been heavy showers around. I'd definitely take 1" more rain for less wind/coastal flooding. Edit-maybe this double low hanging south from the main low can spare us somewhat. Fingers crossed.
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