jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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CMC is a lot weaker with the low and with the mild prior airmass, looks like a lot of white rain or just rain. We’d need a dynamic setup like the GFS to really snow and accumulate unless you’re inland and probably elevated.
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If the confluence is real and we can develop the low quickly as it goes to our south it should snow. Question would be how much is wasted on the front end due to the marginal airmass or otherwise if we struggle to get to 32. But I wouldn’t jump on any snowy solution unless other models jump on board and we hold that solution for at least 24 hours. We’ve seen time and again these lows especially southern stream trend north at the end and confluence weaken.
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Every other model is north of the GFS. It might be in its overly suppressed mode 5 days out which sometimes results in it being shown well OTS but this time it means major hit for us. Very high likelihood it corrects back north later today or tomorrow. I don’t see really anything to keep it from favoring New England, and probably NNE at that.
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25 here.
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That’s likely one thing to be bullish about here given the warmer Atlantic and north extensions of the Bermuda High that will likely guide future storms right up the coast. We can always count on our deluges.
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Definitely as much a top ten day as you can get in February. Might as well enjoy that vs get depressed about another trash winter.
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Yup, otherwise unless you’re north of I-84 it’s another washout. Marginal at best airmass going in, SE ridge/no blocking/West ridge axis too far west will likely mean either it tracks too far north and/or a late bloomer. Our opportunity further south comes later if this pattern change really happens.
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I drove from Long Beach where there was about 12”, east on Sunrise Highway then north on 231. Snow definitely increased around Wantagh then was highest around Deer Park/Babylon, then decreased again in Dix Hills to my house where there was about 14”. That band in SE Nassau and Suffolk was the difference maker. For hours Long Beach sucked on subsidence and light snow/blowing snow while that band crushed. Further east in Islip benefitted from being closer to the low.
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My house had about 14”. The dividing line between wild like you had and very good but not wild was around Dix Hills. There was definitely an accum decrease around there going north from Babylon on 231. Your area must have had over 20”. That sound enhanced area just crushed places from Wantagh to east of Islip for hours.
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I had 5” last 2/28 which was white rain in parts of the city and south shore. Was a very nice scene but was gone in 24 hours mostly. Besides that pretty much nada since that Jan 2022 storm.
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2011-22 had a few suppressed storms and the big Jan 2022 blizzard hammered the NJ coast. Tom’s River got 20” and Central Park 8.7”. Islip got 24”.
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Other than occasional stretches where this “winter” acts like an El Niño, we still have long Nina stretches like in Jan with the big Plains/Mountain West cold snap and now which should be our best stretch in a Nino but we’re dealing with 2 more weeks of Pacific garbage. When we have an actual Nina or neutral ENSO the WPAC warming amplifies the Nina pattern like crazy and mutes even a strong Nino. This winter has been much like another Nina with a stronger Nino STJ. The N PAC is another disaster for us because we’re stuck in a long term -PDO. Until these factors change we’re likely destined for more winters like this. The cold air is definitely still around-records are challenged all the time in the Plains/West in these big cold snaps but it just never gets favored to come east in a lasting way or without being massively modified. Our bonanza snow period from 2000-18 had a lot of help from the Pacific and now that it’s turned, the pendulum is swinging away. If it’s completely hostile to big Eastern winters there’s little that can counter it. We see how even big -NAO blocks can just recycle around more crap Pacific air masses.
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Or just to get NYC over 10” which is about 35-40% of average. When you need a big shakeup just to get there you see how pathetic things are.
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What winter? It’s been an extension of autumn with one fairly cold week and a few inches of snow in January. The sun has been lower in the sky, that’s it.
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Yep, sad what’s happened out there the last 15 years or so. People rely on snow there via the ski resorts. I think a couple of seasons there were around or just over 50” but nothing over 60” since 2004 and looks like 4 were below 20”. That’s atrocious.
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I agree, many lousy seasons in central PA while I-95 especially north of Philly got crushed by the coastal favored storm track and lots of miller B type storms. Inevitable that the pendulum would swing but to go from that to under 10” is harsh. Even though it’ll be chilly it’ll be good to see the sun again for the next few days.
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If we can time the moisture/storm with cold air, we can definitely still get clobbered in late Feb. Odds are strongly that we’ll have a below to well below average snow winter again but we can make up a lot of ground if this Feb stretch can work. My average is probably around 35” for the winter and I have 5”, so I’d need a stretch like Feb 2021 to reach average which is unlikely but I guess possible.
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Can’t speak for historical precipitation, Bluewave or Don would have those stats but at least precip wise we’ve been getting wetter and wetter despite the possibility we’re transitioning back to a less favorable snow regime here. The climate change signal is always in the background and warmer air can hold more moisture. There are also many ways we can get blasted with heavy rain in most patterns unless the jet stream is very suppressed. The West getting heavy rain and especially snow again is great news for them but the population boom out there likely still means long term water supply issues.
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Definitely not in a position to assert one way or the other but most of our really prolific setups had help from the Pacific. It also helps that the Atlantic warmed somewhat which added moisture to the big snow events we got. Now that the Pacific seems to have entered a -PDO, Nina-like long term state with practically boiling waters off Japan and Indonesia, it’s a lot less favorable for us and we see the West get continually dumped on with snow and cold.
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We can get blasted by both types of storms-ones that favor New England and ones that favor the Mid Atlantic but also get totally boned when they just miss. It’s the pro/con of living in the transitional climate area between both regions we do.
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If you want to build an island 150 miles or so SE of here you can probably enjoy it every time we have strong NW wind CAA in the winter. That’s been rare though.
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Patterns where they get deep winter we usually torch. The roaring Pacific jet goes south of them, keeps cold air bottled up there and plenty of storms. We want cold dislodged from there to make it here.
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Final total in Boston looks like it was 0.3”. No moderate event for them either. What a pathetic storm in a pathetic winter.
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Some mangled flakes in Melville. Sun trying to peek out.
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Very rare that we get to 1/30 and if there is no winter at that point there’s a miracle turnaround. Fine as far as I’m concerned, at least do away with any false hope and move us onto spring.
