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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    I expected 2020-21 to be horrible going into it so that’s a good point. 10-11 was the second best season I’ve lived through after 95-96. But we lucked out with blocking at the right times, we’ve seen the SE ridge be so insane that it links up with the NAO block now. Obviously that would be a disaster. But Nina isn’t a game over by itself from PHL north.
  2. jm1220
    It’s that we can’t get a streak of warm weather going. One nice day then back to the gunk. And usually by now we have a day or two close to/over 90. But we need westerly flow for that which has been nonexistent.
  3. jm1220
    Good-rinse the pollen away. It’s awful.
  4. jm1220
    07-08 was garbage here with endless SWFEs that were awesome for I-90 and sleet to rain here. If that’s the “ceiling” even with the high ACE it’ll be the earliest slam the blinds shut in history. This official Nina or Nina background state with the boiling W PAC that fuels the PAC jet on steroids has to end before us south of I-90 have a shot at a good winter again. This state that started up in 18-19, other than the 20-21 rabbit out of a hat good winter makes that clear as day to me.
  5. jm1220
    The trend over the last couple of weeks has been for the -NAO/blocky back door pattern to squash these south and/or dry them up from confluence coming from the NE. We’ll see if one of these can break the trend.
  6. jm1220
    I mean it’s not the worst in the world-Sat and a good chunk of yesterday turned out nice but the drying came from the NE. The rain struggled like anything making it east from the city into the dry air.
  7. jm1220
    The back door pattern is so entrenched that we have confluence and dry air coming in from the NE which eats up the rain.
  8. jm1220
    Like clockwork.
  9. jm1220
    Latest GFS makes me wonder if there'll ever be westerly winds here again.
  10. jm1220
    Sun trying to peek out here. Funny how this back door pattern is so entrenched that dry air/confluence is actually pushing in from the east and eating up the rain like we sometimes see in winter. Eastern New England actually had a nice day because of the confluence.
  11. jm1220
    Another sheet drizzle fest.
  12. jm1220
    In Albany at a work meeting. Huge boom of thunder with the storms a half hour ago downtown.
  13. jm1220
    So far 79 here for the high. Seabreeze is moving north of the LIE now so it’s now or never for 80. Edit-and wouldn’t ya know it, 80 lol. Compressional heating FTW.
  14. jm1220
    Sea breeze so far is pinned around Sunrise Highway. We roast.
  15. jm1220
    South Jersey Alley’s been well documented here lol.
  16. jm1220
    Couple of low 80s popping up north of JFK over into central Nassau north of the seabreeze. 73 here-a beaut.
  17. jm1220
    Might be that the MJO phases that this perma-Nina keeps us stuck in help generate this -NAO in April. And I know it’s not officially a Nina and we’re coming out of a strong Nino officially, but the boiling WPAC effectively keeps us in a Nina state. The E PAC gets the headlines when calling an El Niño or La Niña but as we can see the W PAC state is just as/more important and that hasn’t left strong Nina with -PDO in 5 years now.
  18. jm1220
    Yep and from the looks of things there might be a lot of nighttime tornadoes which are the worst from a casualty standpoint. Scary is right, and looks headed right for the OKC-Wichita corridor.
  19. jm1220
    Up to 70 despite the cloud cover. Good luck any day predicting the highs.
  20. jm1220
    When the constant back door gunk ends right around Memorial Day, we’re finally good for summer. June was the never ending N flow around the Canadian high that brought the smoke in.
  21. jm1220
    Sheet drizzle fest.
  22. jm1220
    Looks also like more over the top heat dome in Canada. That big high up there last summer dried it up and allowed the huge fire season that brought the smoke down here on the N flow. Maybe it’ll help keep the hurricanes away if the flow is more east to west vs N up the coast. But that puts FL and the Gulf Coast in trouble. As we know SE FL is way overdue and would make the FL insurance industry go belly up if we have a Cat 4 or 5 into anywhere from PBI to Miami.
  23. jm1220
    Really is like clockwork. Last spring was the exact same with the weekend wet patterns.
  24. jm1220
    Yup, that’ll be good at least. My car’s caked in it.
  25. jm1220
    Yup, finally a few days of westerly flow hopefully.
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