jm1220

NYC 9.3" Boston: 18.1" (E MA probably jackpots) Philadelphia: 7.2" DC: 6.7" Hartford: 14.6" Albany: 15.1" My backyard: 10" (8.5" snow, 1.5" sleet)

Early-mid afternoon big time fun, flip to sleet by 7pm-ish but by then the vast majority already fell. Euro got wetter too, went from about 0.9" liquid last run to 1.2 now.

Hellacious. That's exactly what we need to max out the potential from this.

Hopefully you're right. I highly doubt we jackpot around here in this type of system, I can definitely see it for I-84 corridor to Boston.

GGEM looked good, not as good as RGEM but solid. IMBY it has 10" of snow at 10-1 then probably 0.3" liquid as sleet so that would add another inch.

There's been something off with the snow maps and precip totals. It has 1.01" liquid in Montauk for example but 12" of snow on the 10:1 map. It looks cold to me which is great but 18z had the same problem.

RAP 3z is an absolute crusher at this range, but it's still beyond where we can really use it. Tomorrow it'll probably come into line with the other guidance.

Down to 15. Brutal.

Yep it finally got off the idea that the jackpot will be from here to Philly. In this type of storm that ain't happening. We hope for the hellacious 6 hours or so that can hold the sleet back as long as possible. But the sleet will eventually come, that was clear 48-60hrs ago (for the city).

Relieved that it's pretty much just the NAM that torched like crazy. Both have plenty of QPF too.

UHI won’t be a problem with temps in the low 20s. It will stick everywhere right away.

Also if we have a lousy broken up snow shield that will mean that we have inconsistent/lousy lift and saturation which means crappy snow ratios as well. We need strong lift, saturation and snow growth in the -12 to -18C layer.

The ratios will be good when we get started but they will lower as more warm air moves in aloft. We need temps from -12 to -18C in the layer where snowflakes are made for the best ratios. As we get warmer than that in the clouds the ratios will get lousier. Inland where it’s all snow will do well with ratios but wouldn’t surprise me near the city that we average 10:1. Thing is though that the sleet counts in the accumulations, so if we get 6” with 0.6” liquid then another 0.6” liquid as sleet, that adds up to almost 8” total since sleet has a 3:1 ratio. Time to concede near the city that a good chunk of the liquid that falls will be in the form of sleet. Hopefully it’s more like 20-30% but the NAM would be something like 60% and primarily a sleet storm.

It gets sleet from a line from Port Jervis to just south of Boston. If sleet really gets that far north it's hard to see how the immediate NYC area and coast do well.

20" here and 0 in Montauk. Let's goooo

The other hi-res guidance seems to be better with the great front end thump. So the NAM is by itself so far with such a lame outcome.

We need the snow shield to be heavier/steadier. In 3 hours that NAM run surged the sleet line from Wilmington DE to Staten Island. The heavy precip is when it's sleeting. It would be varying snow rates for a few hours then all out sleetstorm for 60-70% of the precip that falls.

They weren't better. People forget the massive shift within 48 hrs for the 12/26/10 blizzard for example. I thought that one was lost OTS.

It's overdone it at times. The first Dec clipper this year it overdid it. Hopefully it backs down at 6z or 12z tomorrow-the sleet line advances like bonkers probably because the front end thump sucks and would be shredded up.

Yep and make it all the more sad when it turns to pelting sleet. Hopefully it's wrong. Might not even make it to a warning event south of I-80/city and coast with that outcome.

Love how from 15 to 18z the NAM just absolutely books the sleet line up to Staten Island from Wilmington DE. Must be crappy rates and shredded precip.

21 here. Dropping like a rock.

Yep, and I think Pivotal maps don’t count sleet as snow, so I could imagine there being up to a couple inches of sleet on top since sleet is a 3:1 liquid ratio. 0.6” of water as sleet would be almost 2”.

Yep, can definitely start to feel it. We still have some snow on the ground here so I guess this will count as snow on snow. Still a couple inches in my backyard.

Something's off here-it gives me 7" of snow at 10-1 ratio but 0.5" liquid. CT coast 0.4" but same snow. Again weird precip hole.