jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Makes sense. No confluence to our north or anything to force an earlier transfer. SWFEs will always try to cut north unless something stands in the way. It’s why I never root them on for our latitude.
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Sleet pounded into a few inches of snow can be pretty high impact. Tough as anything to shovel and has staying power. I’m still thinking a sloppy inch or two on the south shore where I’ll be but we’ll see.
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When do you mean? 0.5" of crud in the last event and the event in Jan I had 3.5". I have about 10" for the season which I guess is better than most in NYC/LI but still 50% of average to date. I won't be here at the house tonight actually, I'll be on the south shore where it likely won't be winning whatsoever. Here at the house I'm thinking 3" of combined snow/sleet, hopefully the rain stays away. I'd much rather be in SNE for this or UNY.
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It'll be more than a trace but it could be easily sleet within an hour or so and rain an hour or so after that south of the LIE if something like the NAM happens. Late/shredded precip means warm air will easily overtake much of the area. We need the lift and heavy rates to hold it back.
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Maybe by some miracle the HRRR will be closer to right but I highly doubt it and we saw it suddenly warm up close in to the last "event". South Shore/southern NYC 1-2", N Shore and northern NYC 2-4", Yonkers/Paramus/White Plains and immediate CT coast area 4-6", north of that 6"+. The 1-2" area may have little left by the time storm's over because rain will wash it away. N Shore may just go to sleet and avoid rain. It hasn't really evolved yet but we need the extended heavy snow shield to hold the warm air back, or it will be the lower end of those ranges.
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SWFEs in general are very predictable for this area. They're a reason the snow averages are what they are in the Northeast. It's also a Nina winter, so the SWFEs were bound to start up sooner or later. I'll be in Long Beach tomorrow-hopefully something is still left on the ground after the change to rain. At least at home the sleet will probably stick around for a while after and maybe an hour or two of decent snow to start. N of the city gets their 6-8".
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Areas N of the city aren't really in doubt and haven't been in 2-3 days. It'll be a significant snow event N of the Tappan Zee, every model shows that.
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Total fit for this winter if that happens. Suppression storms for DC, Gulf Coast, Carolinas. Big SWFE to hit north of NYC and New England. Suppression again for the same people that were hit, then once again cutter/SWFE. Whatever torture this winter is, I want it to end ASAP.
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That crazy burst it shows S of the city saves it from turning to sleet right away. We'll see if that's correct.
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Could be worse. On that run the south shore/southern NYC might not have anything left on the ground on Sun after the rain washes it away. Sleet at least has some staying power. Hopefully it's wrong but it was closest to right with the last one.
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We'll see tomorrow afternoon. If the snow is stretched out well ahead of the low and heavy, we have a shot at the high end of expectations. If it looks shredded and taking forever to advance, it'll probably be a slopfest to rain around the city/LI and maybe even a little further north to Westchester and SW CT (sleet not rain).
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Precip delayed=more time for warm air to take over before snow starts. We also want the snow to come in early before the warm air aloft has a chance to take over.
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This is at 4z at around JFK. The 750mb warm layer is starting to show up here and maybe it's a little too cool at that layer or heavy rates that are happening here are holding the warm air back. The NAM has it warmer at that layer with a more pronounced warm nose. I tend to believe the NAM more but we'll see what the other 0z models show. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025020800&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
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FWIW, 0z HRRR looks impressive for I-80/NYC/LI with a big thump especially for the N Shore. It eventually warms up around NYC at 750-800mb around 5z but by then most of it is over. It has the "come in like a wall" scenario. Not sure if it's underdoing the warm layer or the heavy rates are holding it back. Along I-195 seems to get a ton of sleet. Most of the storm for NYC is from 0z-6z, it's definitely racing along.
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Also the mid level 850 low track. When that goes NW of you, S mid level winds are driving warm air in. With these kind of storms you hope a lot of overrunning precip can happen first before the warm air arrives. You want those to redevelop south of you to keep cold air in.
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I’ll go 2-4”, 2” on the south shore/I-78, 4” along the north shore/I-80. 6” once you get north of White Plains/CT coast. For the southern NYC/LI areas hopefully some is left after it goes to rain. Inland it might just go to sleet. It’ll pad the snow totals for the season but I have pretty much zero excitement personally for a storm like this. Congrats inland and SNE. Seems pretty straightforward 6-8 locally 10” event for them up to Boston.
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It’s the same rule as before, if snow comes in like a wall there’s a shot at the higher end accums. If shredded up the warm air will have an easier time advancing and changeover is sooner.
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SWFE usually have low snow ratios because the warming air aloft often makes the snow making/max lift region in the cloud above the ideal temp for dendrites which form at -12 to -18C. So ratios are more like 10-1 or even less in some cases. Snow ratios are mostly determined by the cloud conditions where the snow forms. If the max lift is in the -12 to -18C region, ratios are maximized.
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Maybe the Euro AI can save us all. This type of storm isn’t favorable for places along I-80 and south latitude. You get a diamond once in a blue moon like 2/22/08 but most are lousy disappointments while I-90 cleans up. If we can develop confluence or resistance over SE Canada it could be a game changer but otherwise this type of system tries to pump ridging ahead of it and come north especially when it’s a more consolidated system with more access to moisture.
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There are multiple opportunities so we’re not holding all our hopes on one shot. The ensembles have been honking for days so it would be a huge face plant if it all fails.
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Boston will probably do quite well. I'd say over 6". N shore might get 1" more than the S shore gets. I wouldn't go higher than 2-3" for the NYC area at this point. If we see more N bumps, more like 1-2". I-84 to I-90 is the best zone for this.
