jm1220

The HRW models looked good for us in general which is what the HREF's probably based on.

RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM RGEM. By the way-RGEM!!!!!

My concern for temps is along the coast.

Probably the best looking IMBY of all the guidance. It'll really be a nowcast to see where banding sets up. Since the moisture here is limited there could be a Swiss cheese quality to the snow amounts where the banding areas do well and outside there's subsidence holes. It might fill in somewhat at the coast is more moisture gets involved. But this isn't really one of your more dynamic setups, it's a quickly moving wave along the Arctic front. The storm's speed doesn't help building large amounts either, it's in/out in 6 hours. If your expectation is the 3-5" locally 6" you'll probably be good. If it's for higher warning amounts you might be disappointed. Inland like I said last night might compensate with higher ratios. Hoping temps don't spike too much this afternoon so we waste less on cooling the column.

I'm wondering along the coast how much QPF will be spent cooling the column down for snow to stick as well. It will warm up above freezing before the precip moves in. Inland might end up the best spot to be after all.

The 3-5" locally 6" the NWS has is probably the right call. Models for the most part backed off a bit from 0z and don't have that consolidated CCB look, and HRRR/RAP are pretty dry in general. We'll see if they moisten back up as the storm comes in.

Wondering if Upton pulls the trigger and puts up warnings for the city/LI. Decent chance at least north shore areas make it to 6" based on the data tonight.

GFS looks solid, maybe bumped up amounts a little. Avoid the weenie Kuchera maps. There’ll be places where ratios are above 10-1 but it’s based on temps where the snow growth happen and saturation of the column not just surface.

Where you are the snow will stick right away and probably be powdery-although that doesn’t guarantee good ratios because you need good snow growth. There will likely be 1-2 good bands that get set up inland. The QPF IMBY might be higher but my snow will initially be paste and tougher to stack up. I’m still thinking the immediate south shore/east end might have issues getting the snow to accumulate for a while until the N wind drives the cold air down.

You'll have better ratios to make up for the lower QPF.

RAP looks really good too.

Hopefully we clear out so we drop as much as we can but yeah we’re on track.

Certainly doesn’t feel like we’re about to get snow. Foggy and 42.

There'll likely be some places under a lucky band that get 7-8". Impossible to say where that'll be. NW NJ/Hudson Valley probably has one of them in the good ratios and mid level lift. But generally a 4-6" type event. 3-4" in places that waste some in the beginning like perhaps twin forks/coastal NJ/South Shore.

Before our bonanza period 2000-2018, starving for this kind of moderate storm was the norm.

Looking like another win for the Euro AI.

Gradually been trending colder.

The 200 feet really helps in these marginal setups, which it won’t be through the whole event but the degree or two could mean another 1-2”. Other than that they’re in a good place to cash in when the offshore storms really get going with banding as well. Where I am is way better for snow than where I used to live on the south shore barrier islands but best is just east of me generally. As for this I’m confident in calling this a 4-6” event across the board which is a huge win. Some lucky places from banding or more QPF could get 7. Hopefully we get more opportunities as we end Jan and go into Feb.

Somehow Port Jeff will jackpot like always.

It'll be good to have some paste to start out so the snow doesn't all blow away during the week. It'll be a tundra next week.

Euro probably 4-7" areawide. East of the city has the most QPF but ratios might make the amounts areawide similar since east of the city starts as wet snow. Very nice run and beefed up.

If we see it all snow and we start accumulating early and not waste the beginning to slop/white rain, we should be good for 4-6” I think. Might be a situation though where the south shore struggles for a while until the cold air hammer really comes down on the N flow. The marginal degree or two setups are usually OK here but it hinges on that degree or two.

Well-hopefully that’s wrong. Does it have a good record?

I think if we can get the low to head ENE from near Cape May and stay 20 miles or so SE of Montauk most of us will be fine. It’s the solutions that we’re planting the low near LBI or Fire Island that are a problem. Hopefully we’re getting a consensus close to the GFS.

Never. It's nice but I'll be giving it zero weight until other models jump on. We've seen it do total flips less than 24 hours before an event.