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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    GFS is an absolute crushing from about dawn through noon. Wow.
  2. jm1220
    It’ll still be tough in Midtown to accumulate but the colder places in the city look to get crushed. And I think up near I-84 should still be good since there’s very often a northern fronto band with good ratios.
  3. jm1220
    Models seem to have stopped the south shifts so looks like central NJ to NYC/LI are good to go. Finally a good storm trending the right way at the end!
  4. jm1220
    Mid level lows show how this CCB might really happen. Looks good at 500/700mb.
  5. jm1220
    Becoming optimistic this’ll be a good one for us. 2/28 last year was very marginal and we had 5” of paste. But we know the risks with white rain etc. The dynamics and snow rates with this one look awesome.
  6. jm1220
    If it pounds heavy snow it will drop to 32-33 but we'll see how the precip shield comes in. That's always another question.
  7. jm1220
    I'll definitely enjoy it and not negative whatsoever about it. Just have to be realistic about a storm coming into this airmass and we're still on the southern end of the good stuff. I'm getting excited for my area-the "sniff rain" zone like I said should be good in this storm. But southern NYC and the south shore could still be a ton of white rain. Head up to Van Cortlandt Park for this one.
  8. jm1220
    N NYC, N Shore, N of I-80 sure. S Shore still not looking great. Tough call still.
  9. jm1220
    You tried to warn 'em!
  10. jm1220
    That run checks the boxes. Later today hopefully more/better.
  11. jm1220
    We'll see.
  12. jm1220
    Agreed.
  13. jm1220
    The mid level evolution-that would get the job done. Again we'll see if there's agreement tomorrow but awesome.
  14. jm1220
    Ehh, we'll see. Good trends tonight but maybe add a sloppy inch in NYC and maybe 3-4" IMBY, 1-3" south shore. Can very easily reverse tomorrow. If that Euro run happens verbatim it'll be a pounding. We'll see.
  15. jm1220
    He's looking on the south shore though. I love Curb
  16. jm1220
    Time to buy in?
  17. jm1220
    Mid level tracks check out here too, all decently south of LI.
  18. jm1220
    Yikeee-zees.
  19. jm1220
    Uggh. Maybe. Such a tough forecast for NYC. Fingers crossed!
  20. jm1220
    Grass being covered=success anywhere near the city south of the Tappan Zee. Intriguing though
  21. jm1220
    Sniff the rain zone might work out for us for once. HRRR isn’t great at this range but hope the other models show some good trends.
  22. jm1220
    Definitely could be. Fingers crossed, all we can do.
  23. jm1220
    The “sniff the rain” zone wherever that ends up will likely be a good place to be. This is an energetic system with a lot of moisture to work with.
  24. jm1220
    0z will be pretty big-if the south trends keep up I would think amounts should go up decently around the city/I-80 corridor. But again dump any 10-1 map and be thrilled if this covers all the grass.
  25. jm1220
    Again-have to look at how the storm comes in, which is a primary cutting decently far north, the bad preceding airmass and the mid level low tracks. Those really determine our outcome more than the surface low.
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