jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Seabreeze just getting here, pronounced on radar. Was hung up by the LIE for a while. Temp 80.
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Ugh. As we all know once droopy cutoff low season starts it can be impossible to get rid of.
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All the wet weather/flooding to our west and south might work against big ridging there again this summer which would mean more southerly flow/humid FL type weather vs westerly flow drier heat that can give many of us a chance at 100.
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We don’t have a “bread and butter” snow pattern here. We can score in just about every snowstorm setup but also get totally screwed if one part goes awry. Big Miller A moisture bombs common in El Niño are DC’s bread and butter. It gave us our biggest snowstorm ever in Jan 2016 but we also got zilch in the 2/6/10 storm by 20 miles. Miller B late bloomers are Boston’s bread and butter-they can hammer NYC if they form soon enough or the city gets zilch. That’s why NYC is by far the hardest city to forecast for in the winter in a snowstorm setup-small changes mean hammered or cirrus or rain/sleet for a big chunk like in 2/8/13. Lake cutters and SWFEs I assume are yours that are guaranteed for at least something decent 4-5 days out. Those 90% of the time here are cold rain. Marginal setups more and more are cold rain in the city, and the 3-6” type cold clippers have gone extinct.
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We want pretty much diametrically opposite patterns in the winter, although we have some like 2010-11 where we both do well. I think the final snow number comes from the fact that here, we usually get all or nothing type seasons and big individual storms rather than smaller nickel and dimes that can still get to 40+ inches on the season. And sustained cold is quite rare at least the last 10-15 years. Generally you want more of these Nina type setups since they favor the Lakes while I desperately want it to become more El Niño like. Whatever can make this wretchedness since Jan 2022 end I’m all for.
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He isn’t saying NYC will never have a good winter again unless we have another Pinatubo or Yellowstone blows up (in which case we have more serious problems lol). We had a pretty good one in 2020-21. But we’re definitely in a steep downturn overall and it’s fairly easy to see why-it’s being ruined largely by the W Pacific on steroids. To me there’s not much if/but or deep analysis needed and it makes a lot of sense as much as I hate it. Reality doesn’t care. We see time after time decent setups literally blown/sheared apart by the fast Pacific jet or the ridge/trough orientation pushed too far east, or the SE ridge takes over and we get lousy cutters/SWFE that can be great for I-90 and the Lakes but horrendous here. You can just see how it keeps evolving. Until that base state changes where we’re in either a defined Nina or quasi-Nina with the warm W Pacific which cancels out even strong El Niño, I don’t see how our outcomes change. There can be a winter like 2020-21 every once in a blue moon in this state where other factors can overcome it but it will be the exception.
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2 weekends in a row ruined for good beach weather now. Can’t get it much over 70 on the shore before either clouds/rain or the 40mph Ambrose Jet. There are days where that wind approaches 50mph.
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Some instability showers later so we’re not totally done.
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The 500mb low closed off in the right spot. The front end was ruined because the storm hugged the coast, but the closed off low kicked the low east and wrapped moisture around to the west to create the backlash heavy snow band.
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It was clear the last 48 hours this storm would favor N NJ and Hudson Valley. It's not some surprise at least not to me.
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For tomorrow looking pretty strongly like the offshore ridging is winning out and driving the heavy rain axis to our west over NJ/Hudson Valley. Maybe a few inches of rain there over the reservoirs, more showery from the city on east.
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I just missed this one since I flew out in the early afternoon. It was horrendous for the northern/eastern parts of the city especially. Glass broke at the Capitol, wind damage at the airport and pictures of huge hail drifts a few miles NE of downtown. Apparently it was also a microburst over the city with over 80mph wind. Brief attempt at a tornado near downtown that thankfully didn’t complete. When I lived there I saw a couple that were fairly bad but not like this especially with the hail. People are saying this was one of the worst to hit the city in quite some time. If the storms on Monday fired a little further east before bowing out those would’ve been a lot worse in the city.
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The steeper ridge allows these lows underneath to cut off and crawl around. If you want real heat anymore we have to go to Montreal lol.
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Yep if we have that to our south, no way there’s much heat for our subforum. Maybe way north in New England where it clears out.
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In Austin I saw a whole bunch of them downtown.
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Or January cutters bring February flowers
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This was definitely a bad one. Lots of wind and hail reports and partly collapsed gas station. https://www.kxan.com/weather/gallery-storms-downpour-rain-hail-across-central-texas-wednesday/ https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/65000-austin-energy-customers-without-power-multiple-water-rescues-after-hailstorm# 67K Austin customers without power.
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There’ll definitely be some minor property/tree damage from that and power outages most likely, but a lot of the trees there are thicker oak trees that don’t come down too easily.
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77 mph gust reported at the airport apparently.
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Jeez-baseball size hail severe warning for Austin. I’m back home in the gunk but today wasn’t even supposed to be a severe day there.
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About 2.25" downtown and pouring again. I'm the lucky charm-this part of Texas is in a severe drought. When I lived here in May 2015 there was 20"+ that month. In Oct 2015 the remnants of Pamela dumped over 16" on the airport/south side of the city. When it decides to rain here it doesn't disappoint.
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Back to the chilly lame droopy cutoff lows on Wed.
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It’s done now, still hear thunder but that was awesome
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Still constant flashes downtown. This is probably the best lightning show I’ve ever seen.
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It’s insane, and Austin downtown just got relatively grazed. Hopefully it’s not too bad in San Marcos/New Braunfels where velocities were better. Still dumping and loud thunder just now. Lightning still crazy. Wow-WOW-just saw lightning hit the Frost Bank tower (pretty sure). The lightning show on the way out is ridiculous
