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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Definitely could be. Fingers crossed, all we can do.
  2. jm1220
    The “sniff the rain” zone wherever that ends up will likely be a good place to be. This is an energetic system with a lot of moisture to work with.
  3. jm1220
    0z will be pretty big-if the south trends keep up I would think amounts should go up decently around the city/I-80 corridor. But again dump any 10-1 map and be thrilled if this covers all the grass.
  4. jm1220
    Again-have to look at how the storm comes in, which is a primary cutting decently far north, the bad preceding airmass and the mid level low tracks. Those really determine our outcome more than the surface low.
  5. jm1220
    Smart money says this probably sucks for us and around the city but every once in a while we get thrown a bone. Keep hope alive I guess. Having some snow cover like we should in February will be a win.
  6. jm1220
    Sell any 10-1 map in this setup. We’re fighting an airmass that got us into the 50s today. Some/a good amount will be wasted near the city even if these snowier models happen.
  7. jm1220
    Mesos/hi res models being a little south in general is encouraging
  8. jm1220
    NYC is also very often the most difficult metro to forecast for winter storms. Right on the line as always. Philly/DC are a lock for rain (maybe Philly can get some snow if the south trends are real), Boston for 6+. Experience says the city maybe gets some sloppy accums but nothing significant, but 0z might change things. Fingers crossed.
  9. jm1220
    Tough forecast north of the LIE/the Bronx and along I-80. Could be a sloppy inch, could be 6”.
  10. jm1220
    From what I’ve seen living here our area can do okay in marginal events like last 2/28, but if we’re screwed otherwise like a close in low track or the mid level warm layers it won’t matter. I’ll gladly take whatever it is. My gut says it could be a lot of white rain again on the south shore/city and slushy couple or few inches for us.
  11. jm1220
    Maybe. It’ll be a close call here. If we get enough to cover the grass all the way it’ll be a big win. The surface isn’t the only problem with this, there are warm layers around 800mb that might keep us sleet for a while.
  12. jm1220
    Tougher call for the N Shore, Northern NYC and I-80 in NJ, slight south shifts can bring them in the game for 3-6”. But I-84 corridor looks golden for this and has for days.
  13. jm1220
    Midtown might not have any accumulation unless it pounds. It’s always tough to stick there and this will be a very marginal setup.
  14. jm1220
    Very preliminary I’d say 1-3” for the north shore away from the city, maybe an inch if lucky in the city and south shore. 3-6” north of the Tappan Zee and 6-12” near I-84.
  15. jm1220
    I-84 corridor is where the best spots been for days now. Is what it is, head fakes from crap models as they are.
  16. jm1220
    Head to Boston. This one’ll finally work out there.
  17. jm1220
    Whatever. We be done.
  18. jm1220
    Upper 50s today. Awesome.
  19. jm1220
    Nope. Huntington Station as my profile shows. 5” this “winter” so far and 8” last which is actually a lot better than the city.
  20. jm1220
    My shovel has been sitting in my storage room for 2 years now.
  21. jm1220
    Thing is unfortunately next time will trend north too and screw us. Disaster of a winter that can’t end soon enough. Nice mild day today at least.
  22. jm1220
    I have to think the GFS/Euro idea is right here but that CMC run is a huge forehead scratcher this close in. Maybe these south outliers mean GFS/Euro are too amped, I can hope anyway. But it can easily rampage north at 0z.
  23. jm1220
    Yeah wow. WTF with this storm.
  24. jm1220
    Depends on what the confluence does. It lets go whatsoever and we’re toast.
  25. jm1220
    It’s good IMO that it’s staying south. Maybe it means we’re not dealing with a huge late N push again and it isn’t that great a model anyway. I wouldn’t be worried at all north of the city unless we see a bigger confluence push on the other models.
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