jm1220

When there’s ever a good outcome for my latitude east of the Apps again I’ll go with what you’re saying. I hate the bad news as much as anyone but there’s solid reasoning behind it and little evidence it’s changing soon.

Yep. May be time to invest in a cabin near Lake Tahoe lol.

Until that W PAC meaningfully changes it’s very difficult to be hopeful south of I-90 for a decent winter. Maybe there can be an outlier like 20-21 but that’s a maybe one in ten proposition. Or we get a season with no/little SE Ridge like last winter and lots of suppression. Of course the I-90 corridor and north can still get a lot from SWFEs which 07-08 had pretty much every other day.

We have 10 more years I think until we can say this with confidence. We had a bonanza period that lasted about 18 years with a few duds thrown in. We were due for a sharp reversion to the mean-there's no way NYC can get away with regular 40" snow winters. So if this new regime started in 2018, that would be 2036 when we have an equally long timeframe as the snowier one. Also the background warming means marginal snow situations 30 years ago would be rain now-so the bad years are even worse.

Feast or famine. Thank goodness we had the rain we did last week.

What a stunner. Shocked and aghast I tell you.

What’s the link? And I agree it’s total crap put out there for views and clicks.

On and off mist.

Or zero. Maybe one or two what I would call showers and that’s it.

Looks like this low just vertically stacked so it's spinning/raining itself out.

Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed.

A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again.

If we have another winter where there’s repeated suppressed to hell storms and cirrus IMBY I’ll just have to laugh. Hopefully there can be some outcome where the South can be happy and get snow and here but it’s highly unlikely.

Radar not looking impressive. Probably waves of mist on stiff easterly wind for the most part here.

Not always. Sometimes in these confluence situations the northern edge is too far north since dry air just eats away the precip. If the ridge or confluence to the north ends up weaker, the precip can climb north.

Yep, will probably hit 90 IMBY and maybe on the south shore if we keep the WNW flow going into the afternoon. Soil moisture is low which will help.

Yawn. But Sept is usually a yawn month here unless a hurricane is coming up. Amazing how this season is dead as a doorknob though.

I’m not sure a true long term drought that would lead to widespread water restrictions like out west is possible with our changing climate. So many ways we can get drenched from a one off deluge or generally ways we can get rain. Our long term precip averages have been going up with our temps.

More SE ridging this year-good as long as it doesn’t go wild and link up with the NAO block or otherwise send every storm to Buffalo. Here we need some ridging to make storms turn the corner, but as we all know Nina’s often promote the wild SE ridge. Of course any -PNA makes it worse.

We may be entering an era where we root for the +NAO because the SE ridge can routinely link up with a Greenland block. That obviously ruins any chance on the East coast for the major cities. But some SE ridge is good since it helps storms turn the corner.

If the low can close off and dig west of us, we’ll get a moist fetch off the ocean. If not, probably cloudy and nasty.

I mean it’s very clear how you can see the connection in the pattern progressions-the warm W PAC drives a faster Pacific jet, that pushes the ridge/trough orientation out of a favorable position in the East or knocks the western ridge down altogether, which means the pattern can’t amplify (suppression) or amplification in the wrong place (out to sea or cutter). Last winter we saw it repeat time and time again. With a better Pacific, NYC would’ve hit 50” since we did get cold intervals that could’ve supported snow. And by the East I mean south of I-90 to north of DC. SWFEs can deliver plenty of snow to I-90 and N, and suppressed crap can work for DC. Not here. SWFE can be okay here once in a blue moon-we had one decent SWFE in Feb but I would never bet on them for NYC.

Hoping that continues for sure. Hopefully we get a few more recurving typhoons to keep that water off Japan cooling down.

Down to 50 here.

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event.