jm1220

I don't see a big NE shift. Maybe 25 miles or so. And maybe came down a little on QPF.

If it comes in heavy it’s possible those places on the NE corner of the map reach warning amounts. These storms are always a race between the warm mid level air and heavy snow piling up before the warm air wins. If it comes in shredded the warm air has an easier time advancing in most cases. In the Dec 2020 storm that’s what minimized it east of the city. I’d be expecting largely a sleetfest from Allentown to Trenton to Philly. The tougher call is NE of there. It’s possible that sleet makes it into the SW part of NYC especially if that shredded up snow shield happens.

And today just stop with the bickering. Just stop. Go enjoy time with your families/friends if you can’t help yourself here today.

Tough forecast for sure for New Brunswick along I-78 then south to Trenton. I’d go with maybe a few inches there but expect that sleet could cut into it quite a bit. Like others have said the sleet usually ends up north of where it’s supposed to and sometimes by quite a bit. But if it comes on like a real thump then maybe the colder models could be closer to right since a lot of snow will fall before warm air aloft can ruin it. You can almost always count on the late north shifts on these type of storms unless a strong block can stop it. Anyway-try to enjoy whatever happens and Merry Christmas/happy holidays.

The Feb 2025 SWFE brought a widespread 4-6" because the snow came in like a wall and held off the warm air.

Last minute north bump on a SWFE type system- color me shocked. I think from the city east has enough wiggle room here to hold on but I’d be sweating if I was south of say New Brunswick to Trenton.

Reminds me of the Dec 2020 system somewhat. It won't be that intensity but it'll come down to it comes in like a wall or shredded. Feb's SWFE came in more like a wall and we had 4-6" for almost all. Dec 2020 came in shredded and it was still a very nice event here, but it was 8" vs 12+ because the shredded up precip shield allowed the warm mid level air to take over. We need this blocking to happen.

These move north at the end so many times. The soundings and 700/850 tracks will matter and whether the snow comes in like a thump or shredded crap. I'm a little hopeful for MBY 30 miles east of Central Park but if this blocking lets up by a hair it's congrats this entire subforum while I drown in sleet. Hopefully there's a way we can all win.

We'll see. That was a good GFS run. If this blocking really happens this can work out and we're getting into reality range.

That worked out better than I thought it would because the heavy precip came early before the mid level warmth could ruin it-in these SWFE type setups we need the heavy initial thump. Even in Long Beach there was 4-5" because the snow came in like a wall and piled up. The ones where it gets delayed/comes in shredded you know will disappoint.

It's really about the mid levels and 700/850 low tracks. Right now the blocking is stout enough that those don't screw us over but I wouldn't say we're out of the woods (around NYC). Look at the soundings. There will definitely be a sleetfest zone in this kind of storm because of those mid level lows going north of them and bringing in the warm air at 750/800mb. Right now that's most of PA down to Philly but have to watch any last minute trend.

Guardedly optimistic at this point. These shift north at the end so many times though. Hopefully the blocking does the trick.

This is where you have to look at soundings and the mid level low tracks-700 and 850. If those lows go north of you you’re essentially guaranteed to mix and there will definitely be a warm nose somewhere with a system like this and sleetfest zone.

Hey-if that holds we’re good to go. Hopefully that’s real.

I hope you’re right-hoping for an inch tomorrow so that would get me to 9” for the month, then this could add quite a bit if it goes well. These usually trend north at the end, we’ll need confluence and blocking to keep it south. I’d feel a little better about this one for Boston but we’ll see.

Hopefully an inch or so where I live, it’s usually a couple to few degrees colder than the city so that should help.

NWS needs to either put a dedicated observer there who will do it properly or just use obs from someplace else.

We took off yesterday afternoon so not always. Any snow threat always seems to do it though. I thought for sure I’d be delayed by a ton or canceled. Had a couple screams on the plane on the way out of JFK.

It’ll delay my flight back somehow so it’s guaranteed to happen.

I’m in Austin currently and flying back on Tuesday so part of me doesn’t want this to happen, but if it does and we can secure the White Christmas great. Somehow through a miracle my flight took off yesterday even though the first 15 minutes were pretty white knuckle. Wearing shorts and temp around 70, 70s expected for the rest of my time here.

If the snow/overrunning move in quickly while the cold air is still in place it can work. If it delays and the cold air moves out, it won’t. We’ve seen this game before.

The hi res models warned about the wind threat today, sometimes it’s a false alarm. It’s pretty messy around my neighborhood and I know others not far away got it worse. We probably gusted 55-60 here.

Crazy how you can time the cold early Dec with the warm late Dec the last 5 years or so. At least 90% of us made a nice snowstorm happen when it was cold this month. Hopefully we can get a window to do it again in Jan/Feb. A Nina with a good Dec snowstorm usually finds a way to do it again later in the winter and sometimes more than once.

The Grinch put on red this year.

Already happened this month. In fact there was 3” on a bench on Sunday. Pay up.