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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Greater than 50-50 chance IMO the Sat overnight into Sun rain just gets confluenced/crushed south. We recently had a situation where the north end of one of these just dried up and models were too aggressive. Happens all the time in these confluence situations-dry air just eats up any precip and models are over-aggressive bringing it north.
  2. jm1220
    This is bar none the most boring weather I can remember. San Diego can't be much less exciting. And Sat's rain can easily be kept crushed south by the incoming confluence/ridge.
  3. jm1220
    Of course. Already looks lame coming through central NJ.
  4. jm1220
    Looks very Hurricane Florence-ish.
  5. jm1220
    I have the maybe 0.5” now from the one batch of rain. Lucky swath through Nassau has about 1”. Looks like maybe a few showers to go then done.
  6. jm1220
    The 2”+ amounts some models had for the city east aren’t happening outside of a lucky small swath here and there and as usual the better stuff will be NW generally. More of this again and again.
  7. jm1220
    It can snow plenty here in a warm overall winter. We don’t need end to end frigid conditions. We just need the Pacific pattern to cooperate in windows of a few weeks to allow for good storm tracks while there’s half decent cold to work with. We don’t benefit from the storm track types that can still dump plenty for I-90 or even I-84.
  8. jm1220
    Have maybe 0.1” here. This may get the total up to 0.5”.
  9. jm1220
    When there’s ever a good outcome for my latitude east of the Apps again I’ll go with what you’re saying. I hate the bad news as much as anyone but there’s solid reasoning behind it and little evidence it’s changing soon.
  10. jm1220
    Yep. May be time to invest in a cabin near Lake Tahoe lol.
  11. jm1220
    Until that W PAC meaningfully changes it’s very difficult to be hopeful south of I-90 for a decent winter. Maybe there can be an outlier like 20-21 but that’s a maybe one in ten proposition. Or we get a season with no/little SE Ridge like last winter and lots of suppression. Of course the I-90 corridor and north can still get a lot from SWFEs which 07-08 had pretty much every other day.
  12. jm1220
    We have 10 more years I think until we can say this with confidence. We had a bonanza period that lasted about 18 years with a few duds thrown in. We were due for a sharp reversion to the mean-there's no way NYC can get away with regular 40" snow winters. So if this new regime started in 2018, that would be 2036 when we have an equally long timeframe as the snowier one. Also the background warming means marginal snow situations 30 years ago would be rain now-so the bad years are even worse.
  13. jm1220
    Feast or famine. Thank goodness we had the rain we did last week.
  14. jm1220
    What a stunner. Shocked and aghast I tell you.
  15. jm1220
    What’s the link? And I agree it’s total crap put out there for views and clicks.
  16. jm1220
    On and off mist.
  17. jm1220
    Or zero. Maybe one or two what I would call showers and that’s it.
  18. jm1220
    Looks like this low just vertically stacked so it's spinning/raining itself out.
  19. jm1220
    Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed.
  20. jm1220
    A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again.
  21. jm1220
    If we have another winter where there’s repeated suppressed to hell storms and cirrus IMBY I’ll just have to laugh. Hopefully there can be some outcome where the South can be happy and get snow and here but it’s highly unlikely.
  22. jm1220
    Radar not looking impressive. Probably waves of mist on stiff easterly wind for the most part here.
  23. jm1220
    Not always. Sometimes in these confluence situations the northern edge is too far north since dry air just eats away the precip. If the ridge or confluence to the north ends up weaker, the precip can climb north.
  24. jm1220
    Yep, will probably hit 90 IMBY and maybe on the south shore if we keep the WNW flow going into the afternoon. Soil moisture is low which will help.
  25. jm1220
    Yawn. But Sept is usually a yawn month here unless a hurricane is coming up. Amazing how this season is dead as a doorknob though.
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