jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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The storms aren’t officially chosen until next year for this winter I think but given the huge geographic area affected and BOS walking away with 23”, it’s a very high likelihood. It’s based on severity times number of people affected.
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I’d say 1/25 is almost certainly a KU.
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Doesn’t really matter to me what TV met X is forecasting right now, it’ll go up by this evening. 6-12” in the city is probably a good call at the moment, chance highest for 12”+ in Suffolk and coastal NJ.
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Yep, looking more likely we finally break the curse with these coastal storms to some extent anyway.
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Oh I agree, totally what we want to be seeing.
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Hopefully the Euro can finally jump on so we can start really talking bigger amounts (GFS is still probably excessive until other guidance jumps on. Other models are still further east/more strung out with the low).
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Yep that would be a crushing, shut it down run.
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Looks like the phase happens in a good spot and the 500mb low consolidates so we have a good enough mid level setup to generate lots of precip for most of us.
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If the phase is cleaner and happens in a better spot/sooner, it’ll be better for us. We don’t want all these vorts ahead of the trough though, that’s what spawns these convective lows.
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This wouldn’t be a “warm nose” type system-the 700 and 850 lows are tracking SE of us so no warm air advection at those levels.
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It’s adjusting. Rehoboth Beach isn’t getting 36” lol.
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Well as great as the GFs was for us, we really need to see other guidance jump on to have any faith in that kind of outcome. A minor/moderate brush still very much on the table.
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I’m not worried about it being rain, it’s probably from poor dynamics before the storm takes off.
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Waiting for the Euro/anything else to jump on. What a tough forecast.
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Hey-we all know how bad the Tidewater’s been lacking and how much they need another one while we get cirrus.
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Mar 2017 was the second worst bust where I live other than Mar 2001, maybe even actually worse. 12”+ predicted, ended up 4” maybe all washed away by the end. Utterly horrendous. Other than that disaster 16-17 was actually a decent winter.
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Very fragile setup like others are saying with a ton of pieces to work out. Could easily go a couple hundred miles back east. But there’s a way for the pieces to come together for a big hit-a phase in the right place, the confluence easing a little and enough ridging ahead of it to allow for a tucked in track. And enough wave spacing to have our storm with enough room to consolidate into a major nor’easter.
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Good signs at 18z for sure, if 0z doubles down and adds support from the GGEM it’ll be reason for real optimism.
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But hey we still have the inverted trough that may/may not happen and if it does probably hits west of us. Yaaaay
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When one of these sets up consistently within 100 hours as a threat and doesn’t have 70 billion shortwaves flying around to mess it up and string the whole trough out, let me know.
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Awesome. Out with the cold if there won’t be snow.
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They’ve all been for the past 3+ years and the fails keep piling up way faster than the blown 10-20” calls.
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He’s a joke. It still works for him to get the clicks and subscriptions?
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Just has that theme of 700 cooks in the kitchen which overall ruin the setup and cause it to fail to consolidate or amplify in time. One or two get better, one or two get worse. We need to stop having these over convoluted setups with a vortmax/piece of energy within 2 inches of the next one. That’s been the theme of every one of these setups since Jan 2022, and even that one dealt with convective issues which prevented it from consolidating in time for a major impact in NYC.
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I’d bet against 36” of snow in DC but hey… that’s just me.
