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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yep, I never saw anything to support 15" here. I guess they leaned on the NBM and GFS from 3 days ago?
  2. jm1220
    If we stay sleet another 1-2” to come probably so end up 10-11”. Chance at 12” if the snow line collapses back south.
  3. jm1220
    Same here, a hair over 9”. Sleet. I cleared a part of the table to see how much additional we get.
  4. jm1220
    A little snow still but mainly sleet. Going out to measure and shovel.
  5. jm1220
    Some sign the sleet line is retreating a bit in N NJ. Hopefully that translates east.
  6. jm1220
    First few pings here. We’ll see if it goes to all sleet.
  7. jm1220
    Wow it’s dumping here. Too bad it’ll be sleet soon. It’s about halfway through Nassau and almost to Melville.
  8. jm1220
    Hooralph measured 8” in the Upper West Sode so it’s not hugely off. Small chance they make 10” IMO adding sleet.
  9. jm1220
    Can pick up the sleet line better on Mt Holly radar. Looks like it’s about at JFK to the Southern State. There’s a precip hole over southern Nassau which is helping it along.
  10. jm1220
    Little over 8” here. Probably finish with 9” or so before sleet. It’s dumping but at most I have 45 minutes. No huge aggregates yet which is usually the sign it’s here.
  11. jm1220
    Probably another 60-90min where I am. Not sure where you are but maybe another hour for the rest of Suffolk so by 4.
  12. jm1220
    Probably a good idea to shovel right as it goes to sleet. In the dryslot models are showing some areas of freezing drizzle. That will make it all congeal into concrete.
  13. jm1220
    Hopefully I have a couple hours left here in which case I might make it to 9-10” before sleet. Maybe between everything end up with a foot.
  14. jm1220
    It’s hitting one of its snags.
  15. jm1220
    6” even on my deck. Dumping.
  16. jm1220
    Maybe hitting a few snags again-it’s headed more N than NE which some models hinted at-that it would charge N through NJ before coming NE into the city and LI. It’s absolutely dumping now so however long we can keep this going would be awesome.
  17. jm1220
    We’re enjoying the snow but also analyzing the storm. Take the bickering to banter or PM.
  18. jm1220
    I lived through that VD 2007 storm in central PA and it was dumping sleet at maybe 10-12 degrees. What happens at 750 or 800mb is irrrelevant to the surface. If there's strong southerly flow at those levels because of a primary and 700/850 lows in a bad place, those levels will warm up and it will sleet.
  19. jm1220
    I'm not buying that with how fast it's advancing, I think pings start in Staten Island and the Rockaways in an hour or so but question is does it charge right in or hit snags/retreat for a time.
  20. jm1220
    HRRR again showing sleet coming into the area but then being fought/pushed back for a while. This idea will either be the hero of the day or fall flat on its face.
  21. jm1220
    Yep, proof for all time that what happens at 750mb is irrelevant to the surface. SWFE are what they are.
  22. jm1220
    You can see the lull in the echos over S NJ where just before the sleet takes over. The warm air will advance during any lull. We want that to fill in before it gets here.
  23. jm1220
    Just under 5”.
  24. jm1220
    It hits a snag here or there but yes. It’ll be on our door by 3pm, then question is will it come through or hit more snags.
  25. jm1220
    Newest HRRR continues to have the sleet line fight back and forth as it gets to NYC around 21z. Sleet finally really takes over around dark. If that's true could be big, and NYC gets over a foot.
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