jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Yep, I don’t see this as something that comes storming back and we’re sweating the mix/rain line but we’ll see. There is the kicker right on its heels and the NAO blocking so there’s only so far west it can really trend but 150-200 miles, sure.
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The ridge axis so far west gives me more hope this won’t slip out to sea. It’s in a place where honestly it’s better for the Apps. If it was say over the Dakotas that would be more of a problem. But a couple of tweaks which are very doable at this stage and we’re back to monster solutions.
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Took almost 10 minutes just to drive down my street to Jericho Turnpike this morning. I live on a narrow curvy street and the snow banks plus school buses made it ridiculous.
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Sleet is 3-1 ratio roughly, so if there’s 0.7” liquid as sleet that would be just over 2”. But it would be 7” of snow if assuming 10-1 for snow. Seeing as many of us had a couple inches of sleet, probably 0.7” liquid fell as sleet so we’d be approaching 20” if it was all snow.
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We do need it to dig a little less and occlude later. On these models that boot it out it occludes very early and then bounces east. It needs to gain some latitude before occluding. I would assume those tucked in models dig it less and occlude it a little later. We also need to watch the shortwave over the upper Midwest-it can act as a kicker.
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1.90”-wow. The snow banks resemble an 18” storm because of all the water content.
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Still calculating all the snow that falls in NYC obviously.
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I guess verbatim on these op runs the low is occluding very early and there’s the kicker over MN/IA but the ensembles signal is what we’re still looking for at this lead. By Thursday maybe I’d pay more attention to the op runs. Still plenty of time here to reel it in.
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Yep-I remember how much ice I saw on Reynolds Channel in Jan 2004 and being amazed, it really resembled the Arctic. Would be awesome to see that again.
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Wonder if we’ll see the back bays here frozen over. Probably given the duration of the cold and that every night should be in the teens and single digits some nights.
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Boston probably still has a couple inches to go today/tonight.
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It absolutely looks like 11-12” fell here and then some. The mall piles will be huge. Sleet is a buzzkill when it’s happening but we’re thankful tomorrow and after. It’s just hell trying to shovel it, but excellent for building and keeping snowpack.
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The Op should be thought of as another ensemble member at this point.
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Imagine it a week from now.
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There’ll always be the kicker shortwaves we have to look for these days but at this point it’s way too far out to be determined.
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And with the ridge axis that far west I don’t see this going out to sea with no impact. If anything that’s a ridge axis that favors inland areas.
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Look at ensembles for another 48 hours. If the big storm signal is there that’s all we need.
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Centre Island has 15.3” which I also think is probably high even though they’re right on the sound. Oceanside coming in with 11” is quite impressive right on the south shore and is likely even higher in the end since it was during heavy sleet. @uofmiami do you have a total?
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I would look at ensembles at this point vs op runs. We want the setup to be there and a storm present vs specific track.
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Could it crap out-sure, but this isn’t some phantom major storm the models come up with at Day 7 or 8 that the overall pattern doesn’t support. This one has a real shot IMO.
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Here it mixed in often with needle flakes which probably helped the accumulation a little. But this will harden into a brick and if we get a lot more over the weekend we’ll have a 2010-11 type snowpack.
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The sleet didn’t knock the depth down here either, guess there was 2” or so of sleet but it all counts and you can see now how much denser it made the snowpack.
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That’s what will probably fill in for Boston and nudge them over 20” but maybe some flurries here. But primarily looks good for SNE.
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Yep. What a great event. Trying to move what fell yesterday evening sucked something else. And my car is encased in ice.
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Looks like 11.5" sent right around my neighborhood last night-wasn't me. Probably right around a foot then if you count what fell since.
