jm1220

If there’s less confluence and a full phase we could absolutely see an outcome like this where the primary goes well west of us. In that situation the usual caveats about SWFE apply: I-90 corridor is favored for all snow, here hopefully we get the heavy wall of snow before any warm air aloft comes in. But if you have closed mid level lows going west of you it will eventually happen.

If the temp is 30-31 with the heavy freezing rain absolutely-a lot will just run off. When it gets below about 28 or so much more of it will accrete.

If I see “it’s going to miss” or “it won’t snow up here” type posts I’m just deleting them. Grow up, take it to banter or better yet just don’t post. It’s a storm 4-5 days away and there will be changes based on a complex evolution.

As always with any major storm there are a lot of moving parts and pieces that have to work out. It’s still wait and see for the next couple days and we shouldn’t overreact either way. Of course some will lol.

Just want to emphasize again that snow ratios aren’t determined by surface temps when it’s below freezing. It’s much more determined by the snow growth and to some extent winds. Strong winds break the flakes apart which lead to lower ratios and it’s quite possible to have very cold surface temps in the teens but bad ratios because of bad snow growth-sand or needle flakes. You want saturation and lift in the atmosphere layer between -12 and -18C, that creates dendrite flakes that pile up efficiently. I’ve seen it happen several times where it would snow at like 10 degrees but sand flakes that accumulate like molasses.

Coming back tomorrow, would love for a MECS in the teens on the doorstep.

I purposely stay away other then for an occasion because I buy half the store and weigh 5 pounds more a week later haha.

I’m in Italy right now and not quite as good but close second. They put a lot of effort into it there (Uncle Giuseppe’s)

It’s 33-it’ll be tough to do much with lighter rates.

Glad there’ll be snow on the ground when I come home.

Looks like a nice event shaping up for you guys. Enjoy! I’ll be back on Wed night.

I started at Bill Evans then Tri State then here. Over 20 years doing this now lol.

Good luck for Sunday-it’ll be a decent event because I’m away lol. Hopefully between today and tomorrow something for everyone.

Yep hence the other problem. Might be light snow falling for a while but marginal temps means maybe little/no accum in the city, heavier rates and a more consolidated system means better cold air on northerly winds. Likely better where there's some elevation and away from the city but keep expectations in check.

Lesson of the day and forever-look at 500mb before any surface chart. Positively tilted strung out piece of garbage with vorticity from Toronto to New Orleans results in garbage at the surface most likely shoved way east regardless of how any surface chart and pretty snow map looks. Maybe it still works out for a couple inches, better than nothing. The Pacific needs to slow down and stop flinging endless shortwaves into the US, and we should count ourselves very lucky we got the snow we did in Dec. If somehow it all works out and it did in Dec, I'll be thrilled but more likely than not this regime won't. It's just reality. Any big opportunity will likely come late this month or in Feb like it has the last few winters and in general.

Looks like strung out crap, not consolidated. Hopefully there’s some light snow from that but that’s what we’ve been getting over and over again the last few winters.

I’m away, glad I’m not missing much.

The Pacific has to slow down and allow a better/more stout PNA ridge without so much interference from 10000 shortwaves. Period. I can't speak for the 1980s or other lean snow periods here but I'm with those who have to see the KU setup within 72hrs to believe it. Maybe these long range ensembles are biased too heavily to the 1990s/2000s climate, someone with better knowledge can explain. We lucked out with the two clipper like systems but normal for us is still a good bit higher. Feb seems like when we can finally make a bigger ticket event happen like in 2021 and 2024, hopefully we can do that this year.

I won’t be in town therefore it’s guaranteed to hit.

Should easily get to 50 for most today. Already mid 40s. My 25 for a low was done in a blink.

26 here, 41-42 on the barrier islands.

Only gets worse from here. Guess we have to wait until Dec to accumulate again.

I remember the 1/12/96 storm started as 5 minutes of snow then all rain, then big warmup and melt. But of course by Feb it came back and even into April we had significant snow events.

That’s the storm that really got me into weather as a kid. It’s still my #1 snowstorm personally. It was just amazing from start to end.

There used to be plenty of storm tracks that were good for that region-Miller A coast huggers mainly like 3/93 and 3/94. Now those have largely gone extinct or they develop too late and blast north and east of them. Other storm types dry up east of the Allegheny Ridge and redevelop for our area like this past clipper, SWFE events are sleetfests or freezing rain, and 95% of lake effect dries up from downslope. So the combination of those create the middle finger snow maps when you look at PA. You still rarely get decent ones like Dec 2020-was good there but nothing like 25 years ago. I’d say at this point it’s more than a temporary shift, it’s a larger more permanent shift away from storm types that favor them. I wouldn’t say it’s temps since they’re still cold enough much of the time.