jm1220

Montauk probably goes to rain for a bit.

We still have a ways to go.

Must be absolutely pounding sleet and maybe snow in Manhattan. I think Central Park makes it to 12”.

Just wait until we get some freezing drizzle later.

Yep this is going to be a disaster to move/shovel/whatever. There will be huge piles that last until March lol.

Central Park at 10.6". Have a shot at a foot with all the sleet still left. Some around the DC area have 4" of sleet.

When the lifting sucks and there's nothing to seed the clouds with, you can get freezing drizzle/light freezing rain. The heavier stuff to the west will likely be sleet when it gets here.

35 won’t do much to the snowpack.

I doubt highly we make it to freezing. Maybe upper 20s. But looking likely we get a glaze overnight on top, probably when the main slug of precip moves out.

South fork is up to 29 now. They might go to plain rain tonight along with coastal NJ.

It’s not, it’s based on distance from the radar site-radar beam elevation. Way out east it’s showing that once the radar beam reaches probably 6000 feet or so it’s picking up a mix. I don’t have the tool to show the radar beam elevation so far from the radar site but it must be about 6000 feet or so. In N NJ it’s closer to the radar site and the radar beam is at a lower elevation which is how it picks it up.

Question is if any of us can get to 12” with what we still have coming. Don’t think I make it but probably get to 11”.

We have precip to come, mostly sleet for a few more hours, maybe up to 0.5” liquid which could be 1.5” sleet. On LI looks like there will be some freezing rain/drizzle. This will be a disaster overnight and tomorrow to clear when it all congeals up.

I could see there being another 1-1.5” sleet/snow mix to come.

It’s gonna be a disaster if some of us get 0.10” ice on top of everything that’s fallen. I think a lot of us get freezing drizzle once the precip really shuts off and we lose the lifting.

Needle flakes that aren’t piling up much but yes. Enough to reduce visibility.

Probably a half inch or so of crud since the sleet first mixed in. What a mess. I agree-these flakes must be forming under the warm layer.

And enough with the bickering. Take the disputes about the model performance to banter or calm it down.

Visibility reducing here and needly type flakes mixing in with the sleet.

Looking like the CT coast and Westchester north of Yonkers won’t mix at least until the vast majority of precip is over.

The nature of and evolution of this storm was pretty evident 3 days ago. Thankfully we did well when we had the cold mid level air, that was the real question-the radar presentation coming in thankfully was more like a wall of heavy snow so we almost all got 8”+. It’s a more juiced than normal SWFE into a high pressure dome. The model waffles aside, this outcome was inevitable IMO without significant changes. SWFE will never do best around NYC, at least not in the last 20 years. We lucked out in that this was an “in like a wall” SWFE and not shredded up crap. In that case like the NAM seemed to have we’d likely struggle to reach 6”.

It blew the big snow thump we had and the RGEM/other models were closer to correct on that.

Still have a ways to go here but I don’t see any sign the snow line is sagging any further south. Maybe another 1-2” sleet. Good chance I make it to 10” but 12” out of reach unless we see a real cave on the snow line.

Yep, I never saw anything to support 15" here. I guess they leaned on the NBM and GFS from 3 days ago?

If we stay sleet another 1-2” to come probably so end up 10-11”. Chance at 12” if the snow line collapses back south.