jm1220

If we can fire up some Miller Bs that don’t develop too late, NYC has a chance at 20”. There very likely won’t be Miller As during a Nina, and clippers as we’ve seen have largely died out. Maybe a lucky SWFE can tack on 4-6” like the one last winter. But that’s really NYC’s path to anything near normal in this regime.

More of a southerly trajectory to the winds and CAA aloft ended.

Yep, lawn furniture all over my backyard.

It could change or not verify but I don’t see a way there can be any kind of positive outcome here if the Greenland block links up with SE ridging. That would be a disaster. We can’t have too much of a -PNA with the Greenland block or we risk this happening, like in 22-23.

If 59mph at Islip is real, pretty sure there should’ve been a high wind warning. Today definitely should’ve been a wind advisory.

I hope you're right and we can make a few chances verify. The outcomes can't get much worse than the last few winters so there's that. I did relatively well for the coastal plain/NYC area with 19.3" last winter and that's maybe 60% of average with how many cold enough for snow days we had.

Temp dropping to 34-35 in the snow. Not accumulating here but a nice sight.

Nice snow shower here.

Flurries again.

Missed the 2/6/10 event on LI by about 40 miles. That was a brutal one. Other than that agreed-09-10 was another good season here. Usually the big Nino winters can produce up to the NYC area when we have some cold with the huge Nino driven storms. 23-24 just had no cold like 97-98 and 72-73 so it sucked.

12/25/10-2/1/11 was the snowiest stretch of my entire life. All throughout the NYC area there was 20”+ on the ground which is incredibly rare for any kind of extended period. The two highlights for me were 20” on 12/26 and 16” on 1/27. But on 2/1 we had the SWFE type event and the winter flipped to favorable for the Midwest which is almost always unfavorable here.

In my immediate area we can do okay with marginal events sometimes where the city and south shore get white rain-I ended up with just over 19" last winter. But it certainly won't be good in any sense unless we start getting the offshore amplified storm tracks again. In State College and Central PA generally we can definitely see a long term pronounced shift away from snowy patterns for that area-clippers are pretty good for them and they've gone extinct, we don't have Miller A type huggers anymore like March 1993, and redeveloping Miller Bs have started to redevelop too late and Central PA would be stuck in either a dryslot or sleet fest. When I was there we saw storms like in Feb 2007 initially forecast to dump a huge amount of snow on the I-80 corridor, but the primary cut too far north and it turned into a sleetfest while upstate NY into New England got the most snow. A whole bunch of the 2007-08 Nina driven storms were sleetfests in State College. Sad what's happened there for snow lovers and we can't say anymore it's something temporary since it's been like this for 20 years now. There have been 2 seasons in that stretch that made it to 50" and many around/below 30" when their long term average used to be around 45-48". Hopefully something like this isn't happening here now.

Thought we could get below freezing with the CAA continuing overnight-oh well. Flurries are nice to see.

That band looks quite impressive and nearly stationary. I remember once in I think 2007 when I was a PSU undergrad we had one of those Huron connected snow bands park overhead and dump 5" of fluff that was gone by the next day since it was in March. Otherwise lots of frustration with those being on the downslope side of the Allegheny Ridge.

Still CAA through early morning at the mid levels so we have a ways to go. We probably get down to 29-30.

Down to 36. Feels frigid with the wind.

Hopefully we get the 4”+ in Central Park that 7 of 8 times in a Nina led to a snowy winter. The White Christmas was nice for sure but the story of the rest of winter was piddly snow events and cold/dry suppression then cutter/warm for the bigger storms other than the one lucky 4-6” SWFE.

Good, maybe we can make something happen here snow wise in Dec for the first time since 2020.

Excellent write up. Hopefully the 2017-18 analog works out best but Jan 2022 was good here too. I’d take a repeat of 2021-22 in a heartbeat vs the disasters since then. If we can just get one or two opportunities to work out, that’s a significant chunk toward our normal. A nice Miller B that can nail the NYC to BOS corridor would be best-this season looks like it might favor it if the Pacific Jet can let up at all.

I guess the winds were supposed to be more NNE yesterday vs NE which would’ve put the band over the city.

Very fickle setup. Chicago was forecast to get 12”+ yesterday, the city mostly has a few inches. They’re getting hit now but the band is pivoting south and won’t last over them long. Meanwhile I don’t think Kenosha was under any kind of warning yesterday and they have the 12+ Chicago was expecting.

If the winds calm down, east of the city on the N Shore especially could see low to mid 20s and teens for Pine Barrens. Definitely a killing freeze for anything outside.

Selfishly I hope you’re wrong since a great December for you means washouts here. But hopefully I get at least a decent event that gets Central Park over 4” for the month.

Northern Nassau is its own zone and should’ve been under an advisory or even freeze warning. Northern/southern LI is defined by the L.I.E. which is where the transition zone often is between microclimates. The barrier islands were in the 40s so definitely no frost there.

Farmingdale too, low there was 31.