jm1220

Around 5/5-6 timeframe the models build in an upper low near and NE of us, which we all know means nasty onshore/backdoor conditions. Hope it's wrong. Probably won't bring much rain either which we're starting to need and have to build up in the groundwater before summer.

Barrier islands had maybe a couple showers and are missing this, summer drought season starting early.

In Long Beach today-nice and around 60 but would rather be at home where it’s 75.

The Sun fuses 600 million tons of hydrogen to helium every second and the helium accumulates like ash in the core. The core gradually shrinks as there’s less hydrogen to burn, but as it shrinks it heats up, and the reaction rate/energy output from the Sun increases and over time the outer envelope of the Sun expands. Interesting stuff. 600 million tons sounds like a lot until you realize the Earth is basically a dot compared to the Sun.

Need to build up the water table for the inevitable summer dry out.

Way beyond any of our lifetimes obviously, but in a couple hundred million years the Sun will heat up to an extent that our oceans will evaporate away. Our magnetic field will keep the water vapor from being leached out into space so our planet will be a gigantic pressurized teakettle pretty much. It’ll be hot like Venus but even more pressurized because of the water vapor. Fun! Of course the immediate problem is CO2 and methane which will kill us a lot sooner if we don’t get it under control.

But at least the Delmarva and Gulf Coast cashed in!

Another sad pathetic winter. Thanks for all the work putting the maps together.

I ended up with a finance degree, thankfully I got through enough of the meteo math early enough to get that out of the way lol.

There really is a “butterfly flapping its wings” element to the weather, and it’s impossible for now for any machine to predict every atmospheric permutation everywhere in the world that affects every other permutation somewhere because in the large scale, the atmosphere is a fluid. I changed my major in college because the math/calculus killed me. There’ll definitely have to be some human element to understanding the patterns, outputs and end results for quite some time IMO. We saw this winter the Euro AI had some limited utility but has many years to go. Models make pretty good approximations but aren’t close to the point they can just stand by themselves. I should have 60” of snow going on model outputs, but the Pacific Jet blasted pattern made it clear over and over that wouldn’t happen, and the model biases in the end corrected themselves.

Yep, looking warmer since we should have westerly flow for now. Have to always be aware of the turn on a dime to gunk with easterly wind this time of year though.

The wet pattern to our west might mean a more humid but less hot summer if we get a westerly flow pattern (where downslope heats it up but humidity would help cap how hot the temps actually get). And a more southerly flow pattern which has been more common in recent years would mean more onshore flow. Of course temps/dewpoint more like 93/75 vs 100/68 would make the heat index and what people experience worse not better.

This would be drizzly crap in January too. Occluded low flinging easterly nastiness off the ocean. Inland would do better with higher ratios.

It’ll be May soon enough which is a March out of this crap.

Maybe 0.5” of drizzly garbage here so far. Congrats to the @IrishRob17s padding their totals.

On the patio at Nordstrom Tower/tippy top of the WTC/Empire State antennas there might be some catpaws mixed in with the heavier echos but generally still over 2k feet for any real snow mixed in. And of course heavier rain is focusing west of here-just raw nasty drizzle for the most part IMBY.

Can also see how over CT there's snow lower to the ground. Might be a good event for higher CT/MA/Catskills elevations.

The heavier echos lower it somewhat but I doubt anyone in this forum outside the Orange County @IrishRob17, maybe @wdrag wake up to snow on the ground. If there's a heavy band that sets overhead for someone maybe catpaws hit the ground for most of us. Just another raw, nasty day. Build the water table up for the inevitable dry period over the summer.

Also GFS says maybe we salvage Tuesday but Monday looks like it's more backdoor onshore flow gunk. April can't get over with soon enough.

Looks like about 2500 ft over NYC/LI, 1500 ft over CT from the beam height.

Where I am maybe there’ll be a snow/rain mix for a while if we can get the column to cool down, maybe very off chance at a slushy coating if it completely changes over. Regardless I want this horrid stretch to end and for some sustained warmth.

Well the hi-res RGEM printed out 13" for me at 12z so there's that.

It’s occluding with a wide fetch off the ocean, with rotting cold air aloft. Would probably have been snow to rain.

Thunder sleet in April? That would just be laughing in our pathetic faces.

I’d think wherever the heat budget is the greatest, that’s what would drive the forcing and the pattern so if the marine heat waves shift around, the overall pattern likely would too. I agree that “cool down” is subjective in this warming climate.