jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I’d say graze is the most likely outcome at the moment, maybe low advisory level stat padder type event but for something bigger we need more consistent NW bumps, not wishy washy that then goes back SE next run.
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They do usually move east over time but sometimes they never happen at all. Probably the least predictable of the different features.
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I don’t like seeing the 10 trillion little vortmaxes ahead of the trough as well. Those spawn convection and string our storm out. We need for a main vortmax to consolidate.
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Gun to my head I’d say graze at this point. It’s not really an ideal setup for major snow-ridge is too far east and the block looks like it wants to suppress it too much. I’d want other models to jump on with major snow starting today.
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Definitely a good trend but it occludes before it really hits our area so we don’t get the goods S NJ does. The storm is starting to wind down by then.
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A lot of patchy coverage on lawns especially that get sun during the day. Upper 30s and fog is where you start really doing a number on the snowpack.
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When you see the maps on social media people are hyping up, that’s nothing.
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We’ve gotten snow but from storms that typically don’t favor us like the super SWFE on 1/25 and the clippers. Our bigger ticket storm types have failed just like last winter and ever since Jan 2022. We lucked out for once getting non-coastal storm snow.
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Maybe this one is different but flat as a pancake fits the tenor of this winter for any coastal storm.
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The block is crushing it south and the ridge axis is a little too far east for us. Can these change yes, but these are two big factors that would squelch any major storm chance.
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We all know they’ve been lacking down there and need more.
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It’s a fragile setup in a fast moving pattern. Lots of things can shift around and ruin the storm setup. It’s still 4 days out but this wouldn’t be the first whiff or OTS this or last winter.
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It’s always something. Some turd always in the punch bowl.
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My first post in this thread is a reminder this is still 4-5 days away. But no one should be shocked if another nice setup 4-5 days out turns to strung out/suppressed garbage. I’m done investing in these until we get some consistency within 100 hours.
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Down to 33.
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Hopefully coming down decent on the south shore, looks like some good echos there.
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Like it's laughing at us.
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Decent amount. I’d say it’s about what there was at home a week ago. Looks like maybe some good snow on the south shore-Rockaways and Long Beach.
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I’m so sad I’m missing my 1-2” tease on LI.
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Such a waste of a good storm. Could’ve been a HECS. Instead we get the 50 mile wide 1-2” tease on the north edge.
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I’m in Boston and I’ll miss whatever happens. Even here the snow’s starting to look old.
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Such a nice looking storm heading east. Too bad it’ll be a minor graze. Just can’t get amplification in the right spot anymore.
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What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct.
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The I-88 corridor would be my perfect area as well. They get coastal storms as snow, some lake effect but not feet at a time and overall the best of winter. But other than snow very little to do or going on there.
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Brush your car off expectation, hopefully good. Plowable, will likely be disappointed.
