jm1220

When I lived in Central PA we had numerous setups like this where snow just skipped over the middle third of the state because of downslope, and it always sucked.

Here at the coast we’re starting at or slightly above freezing which is of course the thorn in most of our setups. It’ll cool quickly though. Hopefully the robust models win out, there could definitely be some good banding for a while that could drop an inch an hour or so.

GFS looked a little better to me at 18z.

Looking at the soundings, looks like a deep layer of saturation that should support decent snow growth. If we play everything right, maybe close to a warning event especially just east of my area. Port Jefferson to around Riverhead is usually good in these.

To be fair, hasn’t snowed much in the last few years.

Pasta of Jersey... not sure I ever tried that. Tried plenty of Jersey pasta sauces

The models all show the PV retreating into Canada mid month and the polar jet with it. It’s not far which keeps Canada very cold so in Jan if we get a favorable pattern it won’t take much for it to come spilling back south, but we definitely warm up for a while in a pattern like that which looks zonal. It does promote high pressures over Quebec that could help in a SWFE situation but those are 90% of the time good for I-84 and north. Gradient patterns usually aren’t great for I-80/NYC unless we see something epic like 93-94. They’re a lot better for I-90 and north and that’s where New England that’s been skunked can catch up in a big way.

I’m liking how consistent it’s been. Hopefully it has a clue. I don’t buy into the NAM flopping again, it needs to be put out of its misery. But hopefully we see other models bumping N a bit and becoming more aggressive. It’s still a setup where this is fast moving and the trough can squish it south and rush dry air in. That’s the problem the Hudson Valley and much of SNE has-this is all just moving too fast and can’t amp up in time with the trough pressing down. That also brings in dry air. I bet that area with under an inch has flurries to maybe a dusting because of virga-seen that here last winter with those DC to S NJ systems.

Like I said a couple days ago, if this covers the grass completely and makes it look outside like it feels, I'd consider that a big win. Hopefully we can get a bit more like 3-5" but this is a very fast moving system that's getting squashed SE, so it can't really amp in time and the fast flow is pushing it east. The squashed like a bug models can still verify where we get little or maybe an inch or two because this is still overall a hostile pattern for snow. We'll have to see at 12z if the more amped models have a clue or it gets squashed like a bug.

Looks like it extends to the south shore of Nassau. Long Beach/5 Towns probably snowing in that band.

FWIW (probably not much) RRFS 0z looks quite robust.

Euro looked like a 2-3” event at 18z.

Reasonable at this point. Hopefully it amps up a little more and we can get those 3"+ amounts.

Yep good point, strong winds break apart the flakes which causes poor ratios.

That doesn’t cause high ratios. You want temps between -12 and -18C in the clouds where snowflakes are made which promotes good snow growth, and plenty of moisture/lift in that layer. If temps are higher or lower it will hurt ratios. I remember a few times temps were in the low 20s or even teens but we had tiny sand or needle flakes that were 10-1 ratio.

If you have NE winds off waters in the upper 40s still, that’s a problem for SE NJ. Most coastal storms this time of year have that problem and warm up SE of 95.

We’re not getting that with this setup-it’s too fast and progressive, and the PV is pressing south. We have to hope for a slightly steeper ridge out west that can allow for our system to dig a little more and amplify. But in the end there’s a ceiling of probably what the RGEM or NAM have since this will be in and out in a hurry.

It’s being replaced by the RRFS I think.

NAM would of course be the best case outcome for me but it’s the NAM.

Becoming guardedly optimistic we get something here but we still have to watch over the next 24 hours given the chaotic pattern. Slight chance it amps a little more and can produce a 3-5” type event but overall it looks weak and more of a 1-3” deal. But it could still shear out because of the fast flow or be suppressed. We just have to watch.

If we get an event that covers the grass completely I'd be ecstatic. We haven't had the numerous days with snow in the air that places 50 miles away had. There was a brief snow shower or two on Veterans Day that I saw, that was it. Maybe a tiny amount of that stuck on the grass for 5 minutes.

Given how chaotic/fast the pattern is we won’t know more until tomorrow evening probably. Hopefully we can thread the needle and have a decent enough event but it will be a small window with a vigorous enough shortwave taking a good track. Lots of ways it can go wrong.

Unless we get the 4” in Central Park the stats for La Niña show mark the difference between the good and bad Nina outcomes, have to think this one would follow that trend. Central Park had 3.1” last Dec I believe and still ended way below average for snow.

I have to think there’s something here with how cold it’s been. It’ll probably be the minor 1-2” clipper but something to cover the ground at least which we got last Dec. But like you said who knows.

Regular GFS squishes it like a bug, congrats-ish DC to Cape May. Didn’t even know there was an AI GFS.