jm1220

Yep, Raleigh and Fayetteville totally split screwed. Flurries there pretty much while Charlotte might walk away with a foot.

Feb is our snowiest month on average, even in the dead winters the past few years we were able to make something happen in February. And it can definitely snow into March here. In 2018 we had 6” snow the morning of 4/2.

I’m at 29-30” here and average is low to mid 30s. Confident we get to that number and probably over 40”.

Looks like it got down to around 0 here or low single digits. 6 now. The city couldn't get below 10 because of the wind persisting and UHI.

Yep wasted cold without any storms to track is the worst. And this generally looks like a suppressed to hell pattern. Maybe we get lucky with a clipper or two to refresh the snowpack.

Down to 9-10 for most. If we can calm down for a few hours we’ll drop like a rock.

Looking like Raleigh/Durham might get split screwed. In a way it’s better that we were doomed 2-3 days ago, rather that than nowcast screwed. This storm can eff right off.

Again wind has to calm down if we’re going to really bottom out. If so we’ll approach zero outside the city. If not we’ll end up in the high single digits like last night.

Hopefully we can make something happen when we still have this cold. Endless suppressed garbage gets old quick.

And NYC should be a few inches higher, the 2 Dec storms were pretty blatant under measurements at Central Park. But I agree, disappointment tomorrow aside it’s been a great winter so far.

Still damn cold but too much of a breeze to have a chance at low single digits last night.

I seem to remember for 12/25/02 the forecast was for a few inches, maybe 3-6” in the city but that busted low because of the upper low closing off and associated snow. I remember not expecting much because it looked like it would be a coastal hugger.

Down to 6.

Looks just lame altogether other than a 75 mile wide strip near the Tidewater and E NC. 0.3” liquid as snow for Raleigh is notable and I think a warning event down there but nothing historic.

A bit of a breeze is kicking up so it hasn’t gotten below 16-17 so far. Until that breeze stops the bottom won’t really drop out on temps.

Doubting it’ll even be that much without a significant NW shift. I don’t see anything to support anything getting west of Montauk maybe. Today was a kick in the crotch.

It’ll come back down. Models are even barely grazing the outer Cape now. Ouch.

Take the stuff about the media to banter. I agree it’s annoying and meant for clicks/views but the political rabbit hole we always go down is worse.

I agree, just get this out of here at this point and move on. There’ll be more chances before the cold lets up.

Ensembles are better at longer lead time to get an idea of the likelihood of a storm, i.e. 40 or 50%. We definitely were in the game a few days ago given the setup. But they smooth things out too much because of outliers and lower resolution so closer in we use the op models and it’s clear now there are a bunch of negative factors getting in the way of a big storm outcome that they pick up on.

Whole lotta meh. Like 6 different lows all forming different heavy precip areas and it’s all just a discombobulated strung out disaster.

My car thermometer said 8 when I left for work this morning. Tonight might get down close to zero if we stay clear and calm wind.

Yeah we need consistent NW trends at this point, not wishy washy a little jump NW then back SE. At 0z if we don’t see that then I’m calling it dead.

Yep I could still see a rotting band or two make its way to Suffolk County or NJ. Could be good for a 1-3” deal. Out by the twin forks maybe 3-6”.

I have close to 30”-near my season average so I’m definitely not complaining. There will be other opportunities and I’m confident something will work out when we’re still in the cold air and we’re going into our snowiest month of the year. But it’s impossible not to see at this point how much interference there is these days against any kind of big coastal storm-it’s either a kicker, random vorts destroying the baroclinic zone and stringing it out, all these things we see now wrong with this storm and ruining the setup.