jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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Not to beat the dead horse once more but if only we could buy blocking like what's upcoming in Feb. The Euro for 6/4 has it in a picture perfect position. But now it's only good for 3-5 days probably of more easterly flow garbage.
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Brief 5 second shower here. About what I expected.
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And as usual it’s probably too cool in much of NYC/N Shore unless there’s a strong onshore flow. We hit low 90s up here last weekend which was above any model I saw and it’s a consistent theme.
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Land breezes cause upwelling and cooler water. Onshore winds suppress it and warm the water faster.
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93 here in Huntington, torrid.
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Models were overdone (other than the GFS maybe) as usual with how fast/cool the sea breeze would make the N Shore. I’ve found that to be the case many times since I moved to Huntington.
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Seemed like the sea breeze battle line was between the Southern State and Sunrise Highway for a while in Nassau/W Suffolk. Today it might surge north earlier?
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Seemed like it was between the Southern State and Sunrise Highway that the big drop happened. I didn’t mind leaving my place to come down here, it felt atrocious there. August like.
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An hour or so ago.
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In Huntington where I was, probably 91-92. My car in the shade said 90 when I left, said 68 when I got here.
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I’m in Long Beach now and as you might expect, waaay cooler. Temp around 70. Surprisingly the seabreeze isn’t that strong. Was expecting an Ambrose Jet on a day like today. Maybe that’ll be later.
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First 90 here.
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S Nassau getting rocked pretty good. Line is bowing out and looks like some 50mph gusts based on the velocity scans.
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Eventually with enough onshore wind days building up the water temps, the seabreeze won’t cool it down after another month or so. It’ll keep temps down a little but pump the humidity up. So if anything it might feel hotter near the shore vs inland because of the higher dew points which are becoming much more common the last few summers.
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These strong southerly flow days will do that quick. There’ll likely be an Ambrose Jet with 30+ mph gusts with that kind of contrast and cool temps on the south shore. Like two different worlds vs. Newark.
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The south shore would likely get stuck in the 60s to maybe low 70s but I doubt that if NJ has widespread 90s that NYC/the north shore wouldn’t even make it to 80. There would probably be low to mid 80s for highs here before the sea breeze knocks it down.
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If you're a big severe fan this isn't the place for you. And even if so this isn't our time of year. Water is still too cold. Our chance today would've been if a big line developed over PA and plowed through before the maritime influence could kill it off.
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I had two 1 min rain showers. I win. Our time will come later in the summer after the ocean warms up further. We usually score at least once per summer on the sea breeze front T-storms too.
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One thing for sure, temps are outperforming even with all the clouds and onshore flow. Mid to high 70s once again.
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If we can keep winds from a westerly direction late week we should be off to the races. Probably mid 90s in the hotter areas given how hot the source region is. But we need the ridge to make a good push east or the threat of the back door front will be around. If the trough keeps getting stuck over the Maritimes you can never count on extended warmth this time of year. But two straight weeks pretty much of easterly winds have to come to an end. Right?
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Gotta love the perma-Nina.
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This is always good to improve the mood on a day like today. Although I missed it by living in Austin, TX at the time.
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Woo-freaking-hoo.
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Yep, this would be a NYC blockbuster if it could've been a few months ago. We already have the mid-storm bust proclamations. This is how the biggest snowstorms in NYC happen-massive wall of moisture that we're on the right side of and winning the Russian Roulette game vs. sharp confluence and slow moving. This will be a 24 hour rain event and great for the water table. We need to add that up for the inevitable LI dry summer period.
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If the sun can come out we'll be good for mid 60s most likely, but the mid 70s and higher will have to wait until we can start a westerly flow. NE wind won't allow it to get higher than mid 60s here and likely mostly cloudy/periods of low clouds.
