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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    I have about 6” and I’m 30 miles East of the city, but yeah-putrid so far here. Newark has a little over 5” this season. The city itself lost out on some marginal events that accumulated more outside the city. But being halfway through met winter and having 6” or less is quite depressing.
  2. jm1220
    Yikes. Another trend with these SWFE type events is they try to cut as much as possible. If anything it might just keep amping up.
  3. jm1220
    We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this)
  4. jm1220
    I’ve seen way too many times living in State College promising setups like these and good snow maps this far in advance get cut back in the end due to the bigger warm push aloft than expected and more sleet/ice. It could happen if the snow advances like a wall and can hold back the warming 750-800mb layer but I wouldn’t count on heavy snow for more than 3-4 hours. If the 850 low goes north of you, it’s essentially guaranteed that a good chunk of the storm will be sleet or non-snow. The plus is that the sleet lasts a lot longer on the ground than snow when temps warm up.
  5. jm1220
    Yep. If it comes in shredded or dries up, it’ll be very forgettable for anyone near the coast. The coast will be very much on borrowed time due to the strong south winds. Maybe in a pure arctic airmass that can fly but not with this.
  6. jm1220
    It seems like there'll be a few hour period at the start where we all snow and the southerly wind hasn't torched things too bad yet, but the meat of the storm also looks to be when those onshore winds crank and places near the ocean spike to the upper 30s or 40. 850/925 could be as cold as it wants-it's rain when that happens and the ocean is mild from the warm conditions lately.
  7. jm1220
    GFS has up to 30 mph SSE wind as the heavy precip is cranking. The boundary layer is definitely going to warm up near the coast on that.
  8. jm1220
    I’m a storm mode mod and delete what garbage I can, but the worst are the ridiculous troll threads that become 20 posts in 10 minutes that have to be deleted because adults act like toddlers. Or the posts that are needlessly confrontational etc. This is an internet weather board. Take it to a banter thread, PM, your therapist, or better yet don’t take it anywhere, grow up and keep it to yourself.
  9. jm1220
    Yeeeeeah, that didn’t age well. I had about 3 ft of water in my house and wind gusts over 80 (as strong as anywhere due to Sandy’s huge size and the high north of it, maybe worse actually since LI was in the middle of the sting jet). Models (the decent ones anyway) were pretty clear on it expanding in size, phasing with a strong incoming trough like the Perfect Storm but worse, and banking NW into NJ for days and we would get wrecked from something like that. Following the GGEM or GFS for a tropical/hybrid system? LMAO
  10. jm1220
    IIRC, the preceding airmass for those was pretty stale and there wasn’t much preceding to change things over when the wind shifted. We’ve had some where we lucked out like 12/15/03 where we had 6” even in Long Beach before rain. This will at least have a fairly strong high to trap cold air in for the start. Definitely though, inland areas will have a better shot at keeping it from raining at least. Just inland over CT, NJ and Hudson Valley would likely go to ice vs rain for the coast. Maybe the north shore and northern NYC can grab another inch or two vs the south shore. I haven’t really looked at how strong the mid level warmth might come in-a strong WAA push and heavy snow to start usually means faster warm mid level air too.
  11. jm1220
    The primary would have to die very fast in order to allow the coastal to keep the cold air in. Models have it lingering much too long to stop the warm air from coming in. And there really isn’t blocking or anything to stop a primary from surging up past a point where it wrecks our airmass. This one overall isn’t too tough to forecast IMO and we’ve seen numerous times. The question is how much cold is out front and snow we can get at the beginning vs it staying snow. That’s a question for I-90 not us.
  12. jm1220
    This isn’t going to be all snow. This is a fairly typical SWFE that will change over but hopefully with a strong enough high to make the front end be snow.
  13. jm1220
    I’d look for the SE ridge to be amplified, since models often underdo this ridge this far out, and it would cause more amplification. I don’t think it’s a deal killer for there to be a more amped primary low, we need the high north of us to anchor for a while and keep us cool enough for the initial burst of snow. We already know it won’t stay snow to the end.
  14. jm1220
    And nothing’s guaranteed at all yet. We need a strong and locked in high. If that isn’t around, it’s a very quick slop to rain for most of us. A strong high can also eat much of the initial precip up in dry air. So still a ways to go.
  15. jm1220
    In our good winters we’d barely bat an eye at this but this winter, a snow event enough to plow/shovel might as well be a hecs.
  16. jm1220
    The strong high that gets anchored for a while is a good sign that we could all see at least a period of moderate-heavy snow before changing over. This is a SWFE so we eventually will change over, but we’ve had our share of them that produce several inches beforehand. Hopefully the high stays in place-if it starts to erode so will the chances of a decent accum before changing over.
  17. jm1220
    Please move the climate change stuff to the climate change thread. The climate change posts here will be removed.
  18. jm1220
    Climate change is certainly part of it but we’re not doomed to warm winters and little snow from now on because of it. The overall pattern has switched back to a Nina heavy pattern with the SE ridge and western trough favored.
  19. jm1220
    The snow’s gone and it’s been in the 40s with rain all day. Easy come easy go.
  20. jm1220
    That was by far the best snow cover I saw on much of Long Island-2 feet on the ground north of Sunrise Highway with huge piles/drifts. In Long Beach we had some intrusions of maritime air that knocked our snow cover down that didn’t make it far inland.
  21. jm1220
    A coworker offered his place up the next time there’s a big lake effect event or major nor’easter that’s a crappy rainstorm on the coast. I’ll definitely be taking him up on that at some point lol
  22. jm1220
    When I first got here it was practically nothing. There’s 2-3” where it hasn’t blown around. Other areas are nearly bare. Some big shopping mall piles are left from the early Dec storm that was rain for us. Not too far north of here in the Tug Hill there’s much more on the ground, where the snow was more persistent. But even here it’s been a below normal winter so far. I think there’s 35” for the season here when it should be over 50” by now. I’m told it’s very rare to have such little snow cover this time of year.
  23. jm1220
    For work. I’ll be back this weekend.
  24. jm1220
    I met coworkers for dinner last night and it was really treacherous and nasty when I left my hotel. An hour later, there were just a few clouds around and the band was gone. It really was from 8-9am and the evening when conditions were pretty bad. It was 9F this morning which made everything feel very wintry for a change. Of course it’ll all be gone in 24 hours and even here it’ll spike to 60 on Sat.
  25. jm1220
    3.9” here in Syracuse yesterday! This snow is so fluffy and blew around so much that plenty of spots are nearly bare. It blew around like crazy yesterday afternoon. We got stuck under a skinny lake effect band in the evening which gave another inch or two.
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