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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Zeta moving at 55mph with 50mph sustained winds-must have been crazy in VA/NC with 105mph winds SE of the track!!
  2. jm1220
    New NAM is pretty cold and has a period of moderate precip tomorrow with the cold air. Would be nice to see snow tomorrow here even if it won’t be accumulating. North shore hilly areas, colder areas in NYC would have a decent shot I would think, in addition to the northern burbs where snow may actually stick.
  3. jm1220
    It is curious to me how the cloud tops are so cold south of the eye but there's no rain.
  4. jm1220
    Not terribly shocking unfortunately. The levees in New Orleans were reinforced but not sure if the same work was done on all the other SE LA levees. The “land” in much of that area is alligator-laden swamp.
  5. jm1220
    We had plenty of wind here on the right side of Isaias with only a few showers total east of the center with hundreds of thousands of power outages/trees down, strong winds behind Irene 2011 with the sun coming out, etc. Sometimes the winds behind the center even without rain can be as strong as the front end. Up here the dry air and rapidly increasing pressure have something to do with it usually.
  6. jm1220
    Could be some pretty gusty winds with the center of Zeta moving off the NJ shore. Last NAM had 40mph gusts or so especially near the coast.
  7. jm1220
    Makes sense the water would rise fast in a quick moving storm. In my town during Sandy the water rose VERY fast as the storm was still moving NW at 25 mph into Atlantic City.
  8. jm1220
    Bourbon St is definitely sheltered in many places. I’m sure downtown where there are many high rises will have substantially worse wind damage. People were expecting a minimal hurricane or cat 1 this morning so definitely a worse impact than thought.
  9. jm1220
    The eyewall is headed right for the city and if anything the center may go just west of downtown. Not sure how the city misses much of anything windwise. They're in for the full impacts.
  10. jm1220
    Lots of dry air being entrained into the south side. These half dried out type of N Gulf coast landfalls are much more common than an exploder like Michael. Dennis, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, etc etc.
  11. jm1220
    Hard pressed to call any of what it's making its way through now as land, really. Really won't be until it's N of New Orleans.
  12. jm1220
    Well it certainly doesn’t look like New Orleans ends up west of the eye. Headed NNE and still possible the eastern eyewall comes through. Certainly St Bernard/Slidell look to get it.
  13. jm1220
    Not good either way since the land south of them is just swamps with smaller lakes/rivers like you said. Hopefully it works out.
  14. jm1220
    I would think it’s not coming from the worst direction for N.O. which would be NW or NNW to pile the water up the Mississippi and Lake Borgne/Pontchartrain most effectively. The NNE direction would certainly funnel water in but maybe not as much. Also it hasn’t had the longest time to build up a surge. But it’ll be a very rough evening regardless.
  15. jm1220
    New Orleans in for a direct hit. Luckily for them this wasn’t earlier in the summer when this could’ve made a run at near cat 5 like Laura.
  16. jm1220
    Yikes. New Orleans in for a rough few hours. Hopefully the surge impacts aren’t too severe.
  17. jm1220
    Weaker storm-less cold air and dynamics from heavy precip.
  18. jm1220
    Winter isn’t over because of snow in October. We’re also forgetting really good winters where there was early snow and cold like in 2002 (granted that was an El Niño).
  19. jm1220
    France over 40k cases today (equivalent here of over 200k cases). Could get much worse here and probably will. Probably not entirely a coincidence that the cold weather so far has been focused over the northern Plains and Rockies, which is where the worst of the new outbreak is. Eventually it will come East. Hopefully all this tracking and tracing NY has put into place ends up being worth something in a couple months.
  20. jm1220
    We’re overdue for a lousy stretch of winters, and the Nina background state in general is lousy for this area. We’ve gotten used to being spoiled. Our one real hope IMO is the NAO developing blocking every once in a while which can keep the SE ridge in check, and that happening in Dec. If we don’t see that the SE ridge dominates and we see constant lake cutters. If we make it to normal snow somehow this season I’d consider that a big win. Should be a huge winter for the upper Midwest, Rockies and NNE.
  21. jm1220
    This year being moderate to maybe strong Nina, probably many more obs like this to come for them this winter. Not really luck, it’s a pattern that sticks the trough in the west which occurs all the time in Ninas.
  22. jm1220
    And only 258 hours away!
  23. jm1220
    Yep, honestly a warm winter this year wouldn’t be a bad thing (although in a Nina the cold is usually just dislocated west). But like most Ninas we will have to hope the snow happens in December and we get some help from the NAO. If not it’s a repeat of last year with an endless cutter parade.
  24. jm1220
    Rain is blossoming pretty well currently, should be wet from this area on east for the next few hours at least. This system overall is affecting everyone just about equally-the back edge of this seems to be about exactly where the first batch today ended.
  25. jm1220
    Probably 0.10” here so far as this batch goes west of us over NJ and NYC. Hopefully the next batch can catch us up and we don’t get the split-shaft with it going east of here.
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